Digitalni euro
Eurosistem se pripravlja na morebitno izdajo digitalnega eura, ki bo dopolnjeval fizično gotovino.
POVZETEK
22. januar 2026
Povzetek decembrske seje o denarni politiki
Svet ECB je pustil obrestne mere nespremenjene. Najnovejše ocene so zopet potrdile, da se bo inflacija srednjeročno stabilizirala na ciljni 2-odstotni ravni. Zadnji podatki obenem potrjujejo, da je gospodarstvo ostalo odporno.
Povzetek razprave
PUBLIKACIJA
22. januar 2026
Tveganja za finančno stabilnost zaradi fragmentacije
Kako lahko naraščanje geopolitičnih tveganj in povečana negotovost vplivata na finančno stabilnost v Evropi? ECB in ESRB v skupnem poročilu obravnavata glavne kanale, po katerih se geopolitični šoki lahko razširijo po finančnem sistemu.
Sporočilo za javnost
BLOG ECB
19. januar 2026
Prinašalec novic ima pomembno vlogo
Način komuniciranja centralnih bank močno vpliva na to, kako ljudje dojemajo denarno politiko. Pomembno pa je tudi to, kdo prinaša sporočila. V prispevku na blogu ECB pojasnjujemo, kako lahko prinašalec sporočil vpliva na doseg in učinek komuniciranja o denarni politiki.
Blog ECB- 22 January 2026
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 18 December 2025
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 22 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 20 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 20 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 20 January 2026
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 16 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 14 January 2026
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 16th edition of Spain Investors Day
- 9 January 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danish Economic Society Conference
- 19 December 2025
- Lecture by Mr Lane at Economics Winter Workshop organised by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland
- 19 December 2025
- Contribution by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to a roundtable at Aspen Institute Italia
- 18 December 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 December 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 18 December 2025
- 15 January 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kathryn Carlson, Geoffrey Smith and Johanna Treeck
- 12 January 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Fabrizio Goria on 12 January 2026
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 4 December 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Takerou Minami on 26 November 2025
- 1 December 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Pablo Allendesalazar
- 19 January 2026
- The way central banks communicate has a profound impact on how people perceive monetary policy. But who delivers messages also matters. This ECB Blog post explains how the messenger can affect both the reach and influence of policy communication.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 16 January 2026
- The euro area yield curve steepened significantly in 2025 as long-term and especially very long-term interest rates increased. This ECB Blog post dissects what happened and explores key drivers behind the unusually strong shift.Details
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 15 January 2026
- The ESCB has strengthened its climate indicators, introducing new breakdowns of sustainable bonds, data on how inflation affects banks’ carbon intensity metrics, and improved data and models assessing physical risks. This ECB Blog post offers a quick overview of the enhancements.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 6 January 2026
- Central banks often struggle to make themselves understood to the wider public. Visuals can help to change this. The ECB Blog travels across the globe to showcase the creative ways in which central banks communicate monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 23 December 2025
- Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence makes a difference. Central banks that are shielded from government control are able to pursue more credible monetary policies and are therefore better at keeping inflation at target.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 22 January 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 22 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3176Details
- Abstract
- We provide empirical evidence that the pricing of green bonds tends to be highly sophisticated and based on a two-tiered approach. When buying a green bond, investors do not look only at the presence of a green label, but also consider additional characteristics of the bond that involve the environmental score of the issuer and the soundness of the underlying project. By comparing the yields at issuance of green bonds to those of a matched control sample of conventional bonds, our baseline specification identifies a premium of 16 basis points for the green label alone. Furthermore, when the environmental score of the issuer is in the top tercile of the cross-sectional distribution of such an indicator across the analyzed issuers, the greenium nearly doubles. Green certification and periods of heightened climate uncertainty also significantly affect the size of the greenium.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
C21 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
- 22 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 22 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 19 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3175Details
- Abstract
- We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve’s target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important regime-specific asymmetries. The Taylor principle holds across all four regimes. The systematic policy response to the output gap weakens when inflation is below target but output remains above potential, whereas the response to inflation is broadly similar across regimes. The size of monetary policy shocks is significantly larger when inflation exceeds its target. The Phillips curve steepens when inflation exceeds target and output is above potential, while output sensitivity to interest rate changes declines under high inflation and economic slack. This explains why monetary policy shocks are significantly larger in inflationary booms, but transmission becomes less effective when elevated inflation coincides with economic slack.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 19 January 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 15 January 2026
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETINEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2025, from 30 July to 4 November 2025.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Firms that have faced adverse shocks to their business activity can decide to either shed labour or hold on to their workforce, i.e. “hoard labour”. This choice can be related to expectations about the future business outlook, prices and costs. Evidence suggests that there is a clear link, in particular, between recent labour hoarding decisions taken by firms and their labour cost growth expectations. With regard to the outlook for pricing, firms that have experienced a deterioration in their overall business conditions are also less optimistic about increasing their selling prices.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box provides updated evidence on developments in the household saving rate and its recent drivers. It shows that income and consumption have grown at similar rates since mid-2024, stabilising the saving rate at a level well above its pre-pandemic average. Model-based evidence suggests that lower real interest rates and rising real net wealth have increased incentives to consume, but that these effects have not fully offset the fact that savings continue to be supported by strong labour income growth. Complementing this macroeconomic evidence, survey data from the Consumer Expectations Survey suggests that heightened policy-related and individual uncertainty may also have contributed to the persistence of elevated saving.
- JEL Code
- D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Uncertainty surrounding trade policy has become a key factor shaping the investment and production decisions of firms. While text-based measures such as the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) index are widely used to track these developments, their readings can be misinterpreted when treated as direct measures of uncertainty shocks. Keyword-driven co-mentions might, for example, inflate the index in periods of heightened trade tensions. This box introduces an alternative text-based measure, constructed by regressing the raw TPU index on a set of covariates, that can be more reliably incorporated into standard macroeconomic models by removing some of the contamination and offers a clearer view of how trade policy uncertainty affects economic activity.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- On 1 January 2026 Bulgaria adopted the euro and became the 21st member of the euro area. For the Bulgarian economy this is expected to bring lower transaction and borrowing costs, as well as greater investor confidence. While Bulgaria has made significant progress in achieving convergence towards the euro area, continued reforms will help the country to fully benefit from euro adoption and support a smooth participation within the enlarged euro area.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article examines the key challenges for short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity since the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the persistently elevated levels of uncertainty. It details the significant enhancements made to the short-term forecasting models of the ECB as part of a general review aimed at improving their accuracy. It also highlights exploratory work on alternative approaches using advanced machine learning methods, which offer promising avenues to address the complexities of economic forecasting in times of high uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 14 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The European Union (EU) Single Market has significantly enhanced economic welfare, competitiveness and resilience by facilitating the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour. Its achievements notwithstanding, the Single Market still has untapped potential, as persistent structural barriers hinder deeper integration, particularly in the cross-border trade of goods and services. Using a gravity model, this paper quantifies the economic impact of these barriers. The findings reveal that barriers could be reduced by 8 percentage points for goods and 9 percentage points for services if all EU countries were to achieve the same degree of trade integration as the Netherlands, a country estimated to be one of the most integrated EU Member States. In the long term, this would lead to significant welfare, i.e. real income, gains of up to 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, compared with a baseline of no further integration. Furthermore, simulation results suggest that a modest 2% reduction in Single Market barriers could offset projected GDP losses from higher US tariffs. The study emphasises that these estimates are conservative and that deeper integration, particularly in the services sector, could unlock even greater economic benefits.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 14 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3174Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the international macro-financial implications of U.S. dollar-backed payment stablecoins. These digital assets create a new global safe asset channel that links private money creation and global payment needs directly to U.S. public debt. By reshaping the demand for safe assets and the geography of dollar intermediation, stablecoins transform the dynamics of global financial markets, generating new trade-offs, also for the U.S.: even if they widen the dollar’s global footprint and compress U.S. risk-free yields, they entail non-trivial macro-financial costs. Stablecoins dampen the domestic real effects of U.S. monetary policy and increase both U.S. and foreign exposure to cross-country shocks, making a more digital, dollar-centric reserve system less stable. These effects are limited at low adoption levels but rise non-linearly with stablecoin capitalization, reshaping the functioning of the international financial system.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
- 14 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3173Details
- Abstract
- This study investigates how credit supply shocks impact firm-level investment across the euro area using the novel AnaCredit database. Employing the methodology developed by Amiti and Weinstein (2018), we decompose loan growth rates into four components: bank-specific, firm-specific, industry-specific, and common shocks. Our findings show that idiosyncratic bank supply shocks significantly affect firm-level investment, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on bank loans. Furthermore, these granular bank-specific shocks explain most of the aggregate loan dynamics. We also find that the effects of bank shocks vary depending on firm characteristics, such as firm size, loan portfolio composition, and reliance on external financing. These results underscore the critical role banks play in shaping investment dynamics, especially under varying economic conditions.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
- 14 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Data from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey allow the construction of a housing Sharpe ratio, which relates the return on housing investment to its risk. Over time, the housing Sharpe ratio has mostly been driven by house price growth expectations (in excess of a riskless return), with changes in house price uncertainty playing a more limited role. However, varying perceptions of price uncertainty do drive differences in the housing Sharpe ratio across household groups: lower uncertainty explains higher ratios for male, older, wealthier, employed and more financially literate households as well as renters relative to their counterparts. Households living in urban areas also have higher ratios, driven by higher house price expectations. The housing Sharpe ratio has been steadily recovering from its trough in 2023 and points to a further moderate recovery in housing investment in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
- 13 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3172Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines how fiscal policy in the euro area reacts to monetary policy, by estimating fiscal policy reaction functions for the period 1999-2019. Inclusion of the monetary policy stance in the fiscal reaction function, approximated by a shadow interest rate, is a relatively novel aspect in this type of analysis. The findings suggest that fiscal policy acts in a substitutive manner, its stance moving in the opposite direction of monetary policy, though this effect may have ceased operating during ECB’s quantitative easing. Using local projections, the substitutive effect is found to increase over time before turning broadly neutral. Analysing the fiscal response to other monetary policy relevant variables - government debt and the output gap -, outcomes suggests that budget balances react positively to government debt, supporting fiscal sustainability, and that fiscal policy acts countercyclically in recessions.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
- 13 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3171Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the impact of structural shocks on the joint distribution of future real GDP growth and inflation in the euro area. We model the conditional mean of these variables, along with selected financial indicators, using a VAR and perform quantile regressions on the VAR residuals to estimate their time-varying variance as a function of macroeconomic and financial variables. Through impulse response analysis, we find that demand and financial shocks reduce expected GDP growth and increase its conditional variance, leading to negatively skewed future growth distributions. By enabling this mean-volatility interaction, demand and financial shocks drive significant time variation in downside risk to euro area GDP growth, while supply shocks result in broadly symmetric movements. For inflation, supply shocks drive instead a positive mean-volatility co-movement, where higher inflation is associated with increased uncertainty, causing time variation in upside risk.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- 13 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box presents the ECB’s new global trade tracker, which combines real-time satellite data on vessel movements with traditional high-frequency financial and survey data. The satellite component uses the automatic identification system, which records the positions of ships and cargo activity in near real time, thereby providing detailed information on trade flows by country and by commodity. Augmenting the tracker with satellite-based indicators enhances markedly its ability to capture shifts in global trade dynamics. Compared with a previous version that relied mainly on financial indicators, the satellite-data-enhanced tracker improves forecast accuracy, with gains being particularly pronounced during episodes of rapid disruption to international trade.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Obrestne mere
| Mejni depozit | 2,00 % |
| Operacije glavnega refinanciranja (fiksna obrestna mera) | 2,15 % |
| Mejno posojilo | 2,40 % |
Stopnja inflacije
Več o inflacijiDevizni tečaji
| USD | US dollar | 1.1706 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 185.88 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87220 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9283 |
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