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Peter Welz

Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability

Division

Systemic Risk&Financial Institutions

Current Position

Senior Financial Stability Expert

Email

peter.welz@ecb.europa.eu

13 November 2018
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2194
Details
Abstract
This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the equilibrium real interest rate, the population share of the middle-aged cohort, and institutional quality. Semi-structural household credit gaps are obtained as deviations of the real household credit stock from this fundamental trend level. Estimates of these credit gaps for 12 EU countries over the past 35 years yield long credit cycles that last between 15 and 25 years with amplitudes of around 20%. The early warning properties for financial crises are superior compared to credit gaps that are obtained from purely statistical filters. The proposed semistructural household credit gaps could therefore provide useful information for the formulation of countercyclical macroprudential policy, especially because they allow for economic interpretation of observed credit developments.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
24 May 2018
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2018
Details
Abstract
The real economy repercussions of financial crises are the ultimate focus of financial stability monitoring and policymakers. By extending a standard set of financial stability indicators with indicators capturing spillover and contagion risks, this special feature proposes a financial stability risk index (FSRI) that has predictive power for the near-term risk of deep recessions. It is shown that the empirical performance of the index benefits from combining a large set of macro-financial indicators and, notably, that the information content of the spillover and contagion risk indicators is important.
JEL Code
G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
9 January 2018
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 205
Details
Abstract
This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices. Cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates are considerably shorter than those in credit and house prices and have little in common with the latter. Credit and house price cycles are weakly synchronous across countries and their volatilities vary widely – these differences may be related to the structural properties of housing and mortgage markets. Finally, DSGE models can replicate the volatility of cycles in house and equity prices, but not the persistence of house price cycles.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
24 May 2017
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2017
Details
Abstract
Excessive credit growth and leverage have been key drivers of past financial crises, notably the recent global financial crisis. For the appropriate setting of countercyclical macroprudential policy instruments, it is therefore important to identify periods of excessive credit developments at an early stage. This special feature discusses the standard statistical method for computing credit gaps and compares it with an alternative approach to measuring credit excesses based on fundamental economic factors. Theory-based credit gaps could provide a useful complement to statistical measures of cyclical systemic risk.
JEL Code
G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
27 November 2014
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2014
Details
Abstract
This special feature discusses ways of measuring financial cycles for macro-prudential policymaking. It presents some estimates and empirical characteristics of financial cycles. Existing studies on financial cycle measurement remain quite nascent in comparison with the voluminous literature on business cycles. In this context, two approaches – turning point and spectral analysis – are used to capture financial and business cycles at the country level. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that financial cycles tend to be more volatile than business cycles in the euro area, albeit with strong cross-country heterogeneity. Both aspects underscore the relevance of robust financial cycle estimates for macro-prudential policy design in euro area countries.
JEL Code
G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
12 May 2006
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 621
Details
Abstract
This paper analyses the empirical performance of a New Keynesian stickyprice model with delayed effects of monetary impulses on inflation and output for the German pre-EMU economy. The model is augmented with rule-ofthumb behaviour in consumption and price setting. Using recently developed Bayesian estimation techniques, endogenous persistence is found to play a dominant role in consumption whereas forward-looking behaviour is greater for inflation. The model's dynamics following a monetary shock and a preference shock are comparable to those of an identified VAR model.
JEL Code
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy