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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

September 2026
At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation is set to peak in late 2026 as the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices. It should then ease as energy commodity prices fall again, despite the pass-through to non-energy inflation. Annual inflation is projected to be 3.0% in 2026, falling to 2.1% in 2028.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The euro area economy is proving more resilient than expected to the shock from the Middle East conflict, with stronger domestic demand amid a robust labour market, public investment and AI-related investment. GDP growth is projected to be 0.9% in 2026, rising to 1.5% by 2028.

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Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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