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INTERVIEW

More ambition to accelerate the recovery

We need to be more ambitious to help economic activity reach its full potential and ensure that inflation converges towards our aim, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta talking about the recovery in the euro area. He also speaks about the digital euro and its future prospects.

Interview
INTERVIEW 9 April 2021

Current rise in inflation short-lived

A sustainable rise in inflation towards our aim would be good news as it would mean that the economy is gaining momentum, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel tells Der Spiegel. The current increase is mostly due to one-off effects and inflation is likely to ease again in 2022.

Interview
THE ECB BLOG 1 April 2021

Inflation dynamics during a pandemic

The recent volatility of inflation can largely be attributed to the nature of the pandemic shock, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The increase in inflation during early 2021 does not constitute the basis for a sustained shift in inflation dynamics.

Blog post
EXPLAINERS 30 March 2021

What are TLTROs?

Targeted longer-term refinancing operations encourage banks to keep affordable credit flowing to people and businesses. This, in turn, supports spending and investment in the economy. But how do they work exactly?

Explainer
9 April 2021
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
Annexes
9 April 2021
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
9 April 2021
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
9 April 2021
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
8 April 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
8 April 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
8 April 2021
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTS
8 April 2021
EURO MONEY MARKET STATISTICS
8 April 2021
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-third meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
27 March 2021
Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at “The Outlook for the Economy and Finance” workshop (fully digital) organised by The European House − Ambrosetti
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25 March 2021
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at NYU Stern Fireside Chat
Annexes
25 March 2021
18 March 2021
Vortrag von Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums der EZB, beim Rotary Club (Distrikt 1900), 18. März 2021
18 March 2021
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the High-level conference on “Strengthening the EU’s bank crisis management and deposit insurance framework: for a more resilient and efficient banking union” organised by the European Commission
11 April 2021
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Luis Doncel and published on 11 April 2021
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9 April 2021
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Tim Bartz and Stefan Kaiser on 1 April and published on 9 April 2021, in print on 10 April 2021
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23 March 2021
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Annette Weisbach on 22 March 2021
17 March 2021
Interview on Twitter with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 16 March 2021
17 March 2021
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Guillaume Benoit, Elsa Conesa, Lucie Robequain and Sophie Rolland
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1 April 2021
Blog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Summary
The recent volatility of inflation can largely be attributed to the nature of the pandemic shock, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. The increase in inflation during early 2021 does not constitute the basis for a sustained shift in inflation dynamics.
25 March 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Ulrich Bindseil, ECB Director General Market Infrastructure and Payments
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At the ECB we are committed to understanding people’s needs and ensuring the digital euro would be widely accepted, writes Executive Board member Fabio Panetta with Ulrich Bindseil in The ECB Blog.
22 March 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Summary
Our pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) has provided crucial support to euro area citizens since its launch a year ago, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog. The PEPP has been, and remains, at the core of our pandemic policy response.
18 March 2021
Blog post by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
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Summary
The damage caused by more frequent and severe natural disasters far exceeds the costs of transitioning to a greener economy, writes Vice-President Luis de Guindos in his ECB Blog post on our first climate stress test for banks and companies.
8 March 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Summary
One year into the pandemic, we can clearly see that the social and economic impact of the virus is particularly hard for women, writes President Christine Lagarde. In response we must choose to challenge women’s roles at home, at work and in our society.
9 April 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2534
Details
Abstract
We address the identification of low-frequency macroeconomic shocks, such as technology, in Structural Vector Autoregressions. Whilst identification issues with long-run restrictions are well documented, we demonstrate that the recent attempt to overcome said issues using the Max-Share approach of Francis et al. (2014) and Barsky and Sims (2011) has its own shortcomings, primarily that they are vulnerable to bias from confounding non-technology shocks, although less so than long-run specifications. We offer a new spectral methodology to improve empirical identification. This new preferred methodology offers equivalent or improved identification in a wide range of data generating processes and when applied to US data. Our findings on the bias generated by confounding shocks also importantly extends to the identification of dominant business-cycle shocks, which will be a combination of shocks rather than a single structural driver. This can result in a mis-characterization of the business cycle anatomy.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 April 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2533
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Abstract
Frequently, factors other than structural developments in technology and production efficiency drive changes in labor productivity in advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This paper uses a new method to extract technology shocks that excludes these influences, resulting in lasting improvements in labor productivity. The same methodology in turn is used to identify a stylized example of the effects of a demand shock on productivity. Technology innovations are accompanied by higher and more rapidly increasing rates of investment in EMDEs relative to advanced economies, suggesting that positive technological developments are often capital-embodied in the former economies. Employment falls in both advanced economies and EMDEs following positive technology developments, with the effect smaller but more persistent in EMDEs. Uncorrelated technological developments across economies suggest that global synchronization of labor productivity growth is due to cyclical (demand) influences. Demand drivers of labor productivity are found to have highly persistent effects in EMDEs and some advanced economies. Unlike technology shocks, however, demand shocks influence labor productivity only through the capital deepening channel, particularly in economies with low capacity for counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Overall, non-technological factors accounted for most of the fall in labor productivity growth during 2007-08 and around one-third of the longer-term productivity decline after the global financial crisis.
JEL Code
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
8 April 2021
EUROSYSTEM OVERSIGHT REPORT
6 April 2021
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
26 March 2021
MEP LETTER
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26 March 2021
MEP LETTER
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26 March 2021
MEP LETTER
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26 March 2021
MEP LETTER
26 March 2021
MEP LETTER
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 2

Interest rates

Marginal lending facility 0.25 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 0.00 %
Deposit facility − 0.50 %
18 September 2019 Past key ECB interest rates

Inflation rate

Inflation dashboard

Reference rates

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JPY Japanese yen 130.42
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Last update: Friday, 09 April 2021 Euro foreign exchange rates