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MONETARY POLICY

Press conference this Thursday

President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos explain the Governing Council’s monetary policy decisions and answer questions from journalists. The press conference starts at 14:45 CET.

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PRESS RELEASE 6 September 2023

Faster green transition benefits all

A speedier green transition initially involves more investment and higher energy costs, our economy-wide climate stress test finds, but financial risks fall significantly in the medium term. Any delay means missing the Paris Agreement goals and exacerbating costly physical risks.

Results of climate stress test
THE ECB BLOG 6 September 2023

Why fast-tracking to net zero is essential

Moving towards carbon neutrality as quickly and boldly as possible is by far the best way to slow climate change, says Vice-President Luis de Guindos on the ECB Blog. It may require more effort in the short run, but in the long run it will cost less overall.

Read the blog
EXPLAINER 8 September 2023

How are Executive Board members chosen?

Candidates for the ECB Executive Board have to be experts recognised for their experience in monetary or banking matters. Take a look at our new infographic to see how its six members are selected.

Explainer
5 September 2023
Introductory remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Legal Conference organised by the European Central Bank on “The incorporation of environmental considerations in the supervision of prudential risks”
4 September 2023
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar organised by the European Economics & Financial Centre
4 September 2023
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the ECB Legal Conference
4 September 2023
Introductory statement by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
31 August 2023
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a conference organised by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research on “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2023”
Annexes
31 August 2023
5 September 2023
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Stephen Kinsella on 31 August 2023
30 July 2023
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Anne Cheyvialle and Florentin Collomp on 28 July 2023
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7 July 2023
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Geneviève Van Lède on 5 July 2023
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25 June 2023
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez, John Müller and Daniel Caballero
English
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8 June 2023
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 1 June 2023
6 September 2023
Moving towards carbon neutrality as quickly and boldly as possible is by far the best way to slow down climate change. It may take more effort in the short run, but in the long run it will cost less overall, says ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos. We need to reach carbon neutrality to avoid existential risks to nature, people and our economies. And we need to start making changes soon. Procrastinating may be easier and less costly today, but means we will pay a higher price tomorrow: the damage to our environment and economies from rising temperatures will be much more severe. In fact, the sooner and faster we complete the necessary green transition, the lower the overall costs and risks. This is one of the main outcomes of our second economy-wide climate stress test. Let me talk you through the findings.
Details
JEL Code
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
30 August 2023
With rising geopolitical tensions and urgent global challenges such as the climate and digital transitions, Europe needs to bolster its resilience to shocks and invest strategically. In order to achieve this, we need to work together, as a more integrated Europe is better positioned to realize shared goals in a fragmented global economy.  
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Details
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
24 August 2023
Our money needs to be easy to handle, appealing and difficult to counterfeit. This ECB Blog post talks you through good banknote design – and seeks your advice.
Details
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
9 August 2023
Words matter as much as actions for central banks. Because changes in tone can presage shifts in monetary policy. We have created an index to measure and compare the tone of policy communication by the ECB and the US Fed. This ECB Blog post talks you through the findings.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
2 August 2023
Policymakers should focus on preserving bank resilience to strengthen macroprudential stability at a time of economic uncertainty. This would ensure that sufficient capital buffers are available should widespread losses arise, argues ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos.
Details
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
6 September 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 328
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Abstract
Transition to a carbon-neutral economy is necessary to limit the negative impact of climate change and has become one of the world’s most urgent priorities. This paper assesses the impact of three potential transition pathways, differing in the timing and level of ambition of emissions’ reduction, and quantifies the associated investment needs, economic costs and financial risks for corporates, households and financial institutions in the euro area. Building on the first ECB top-down, economy-wide climate stress test, this paper contributes to the field of climate stress testing by introducing three key innovations. First, the design of three short-term transition scenarios that combine the transition paths developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) with macroeconomic projections that allow for the latest energy-related developments. Second, the introduction of granular sectoral dynamics and energy-specific considerations by country relevant to transition risk. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of transition risk on the euro area private sector and on the financial system, using a granular dataset that combines climate, energy-related and financial information for millions of firms with the euro area credit register and securities database and country-level data on households. By comparing different transition scenarios, the results of the exercise show that acting immediately and decisively would provide significant benefits for the euro area economy and financial system, not only by maintaining the optimal net-zero emissions path (and therefore limiting the physical impact of climate change), but also by limiting financial risk. An accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy would be helpful to contain risks for financial institutions and would not generate financial stability concerns for the euro area, provided that firms and households could finance their green investments in an orderly manner. However, the heterogeneous results across economic sectors and banks suggest that more careful monitoring of certain entity subsets and of credit exposures will be required during the transition process.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
28 August 2023
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
25 August 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2843
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Abstract
How should monetary policy respond to excessive capital in•ows that appreciate the currency and widen the external de•cit? Using the workhorse two-country open-macro model, we derive a quadratic approximation of the utility-based global loss function in incomplete market economies, and solve for the optimal targeting rules under cooperation. The optimal monetary stance is expansionary if the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on import prices is complete, contractionary if nominal rigidities attenuate ERPT. Excessive capital in•ows, however, may lead to currency undervaluation instead of overvaluation for some parameter values. The optimal stance is then invariably expansionary to support domestic demand.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
24 August 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2842
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Abstract
This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indices which measure the severity of financial crises on a continuous scale. Several index designs from the financial stress and systemic risk literature can be represented as special cases. We introduce an enhanced daily variant of the CISS (composite indicator of systemic stress) for the euro area and the US. The CISS aggregates a representative set of stress indicators using their time-varying cross-correlations as systemic risk weights, computationally similar to how portfolio risk is computed from the risk characteristics of individual assets. A boot-strap algorithm provides test statistics. Single-equation and system quantile growth-at-risk regressions show that the CISS has stronger effects in the lower tails of the growth distribu-tion. Simulations based on a quantile VAR suggest that systemic stress is a major driver of the Great Recession, while its contribution to the COVID-19 crisis appears to be small.
JEL Code
C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C31 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions, Social Interaction Models
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
23 August 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
18 August 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2841
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Abstract
We analyse the impact of the adoption of expected credit loss accounting (IFRS 9) on the timeliness and potential procyclicality of banks’ loan loss provisioning. We use granular loan-level data from the euro area’s credit register and investigate both firm-level credit events and macroeconomic shocks (2020 COVID-19 pandemic, 2022 energy price shock). We find that provisions under the new standard are higher before default and more responsive to shocks. However, the majority of provisioning still occurs at the time of default and the dynamics around default events are similar to pre-existing national standards. Additionally, banks with a larger capital headroom provision significantly more, particularly for loans using IFRS 9. This suggests a higher risk of underprovisioning for less capitalized banks.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
17 August 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 327
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Abstract
This investigation starts with the observation that, over the last decade, profitability rates reported by euro area (EA) banks have remained, on average, persistently below those reported by peer banks in the United States (US). In particular, banks’ return on equity (ROE) has fluctuated around 5% in the EA, but around 10% in the US, indicating a profitability gap of around 5 percentage points. However, while comparisons are frequently made between EA and US banks in academic and political debate, they are not perfect benchmarks, nor should this paper be regarded as aiming for a like-for-like comparison.
JEL Code
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
16 August 2023
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
16 August 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 326
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Abstract
How do central bank digital currencies (CBDC) impact the balance sheets of banks and central banks? To tackle this question empirically, we built a constraint optimisation model that allows for individual banks to choose how to respond to outflows of deposits, based on cost considerations and subject to the availability of reserves and collateral, within the individual banks and system wide, and for a given level of liquidity risk tolerance. We simulate the impact of a fictitious digital euro introduction in the third quarter of 2021, using data from over 2,000 euro area banks. That impact depends on i) the number of deposits withdrawn and the speed at which this occurs, ii) the liquidity available within the banking system at the time of the digital euro introduction, iii) the liquidity risk preferences of the markets and supervisors, iv) the bank’s business model, and v) the functioning of the interbank market. We find that a €3,000 digital euro holding limit per person, as suggested by Bindseil (2020) and Bindseil and Panetta (2020), would have been successful in containing the impact on bank liquidity risks and funding structures and on the Eurosystem balance sheet, even in extremely pessimistic scenarios.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box reviews Eurosystem staff projections of public wages, focusing on their response to inflation. It concludes that, after experiencing a large cut in real terms in 2022, public wages are projected to grow cumulatively over the period 2023-25 at rates higher than inflation. It also shows that projections of public wages reflect substantial heterogeneity at country level. Projected nominal public wage growth is stronger in countries that have experienced high levels of inflation in the recent past, even in the absence of institutional arrangements for automatic price indexation of public wages, but is more restrained in countries with high levels of public debt.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box uses structural BVAR models applied to global macroeconomic data to provide evidence that monetary policy is transmitted more strongly to consumption in countries with higher shares of homeowners with mortgages, higher levels of household debt and higher shares of adjustable-rate mortgages, although the evidence for the latter is weaker. Since the previous hiking cycle, the shares of homeowners with mortgages and the levels of household debt have risen in the euro area, with countries increasingly resembling each other in this regard. This means that aggregate monetary policy transmission through the housing channel may, if anything, be stronger and more even across euro area countries in the current cycle than in past hiking cycles.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
The non-financial corporate bond market in the euro area has grown substantially over the past decade. The expansion in the supply of bonds was met with broad-based demand from all investor groups and accompanied by only a limited increase in corporate bond spreads. To better understand private sector demand for corporate bonds and its role in the price effects of changes in supply, this box studies the demand elasticities of individual sectors and the distribution of corporate bond holdings across the private sector. The findings, which focus on a low-yield period, suggest that insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs) play a special role in the corporate bond investor base: unlike other private sector investors, ICPFs demand fewer corporate bonds when their spreads increase, thereby potentially amplifying the price effects of shifts in supply. As the market share of ICPFs has fallen and that of other private sector investors has increased, the upward pressure on corporate bond spreads from unexpected increases in their supply, under low market stress, is estimated to have decreased.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box introduces experimental and analytical indicators for assessing climate change, which encompass three main categories: sustainable finance, carbon emissions and physical risks. The data remain under development and are, at this juncture, subject to caveats. The new indicators are a step towards supplying policymakers with appropriate information for assessing the exposure of financial institutions to climate change-related developments. Close interaction with stakeholders is important to this work, and the ECB is actively seeking feedback on the indicators.
JEL Code
C8 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
10 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) shows that consumers’ expectations for interest rates on mortgages and savings accounts have increased, in line with actual interest rate developments. Since June 2022 an increasing share of respondents, particularly among those with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) which are generally more directly exposed to interest rate changes, has favoured lower interest rates. A growing share of households with an ARM also expects difficulties in meeting their mortgage payments in the near future and intends to refinance the mortgage contract. In line with their higher exposure to interest rate changes, spending expectations of respondents with an ARM are more sensitive to changes in expected interest rates. Overall, the results of the CES suggest that consumers have been progressively incorporating the impact of higher interest rates into their spending decisions.
JEL Code
E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
9 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This article presents a model-based assessment of the short to medium-term economic impact of carbon pricing aimed at mitigating climate change. It addresses the high level of uncertainty in gauging the effects of carbon price increases by employing a suite of macroeconomic models. Under the main scenario, the loss in euro area annual GDP growth is contained and the inflation impact is modest, implying a limited output/inflation trade-off for monetary policy. The scenario supports the transition to a low-carbon economy, but the implied reduction in carbon emissions makes only a limited contribution to achieving the EU’s intermediate emission reduction target for 2030. Accordingly, reaching the EU’s climate goals will require a mixture of ambitious carbon pricing, additional regulatory action and technological innovation.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
8 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box analyses the factors determining household perceptions of the attractiveness of housing as an investment. It finds that these perceptions differ depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of households. Using a linear probability regression model, the box also shows that higher perceptions of housing as a good investment are associated with higher expectations for economic growth, personal income growth and house price growth, as well as lower expectations for inflation and mortgage rates. Combining the model estimates with the average expectations of households surveyed in the CES at each point in time, the box derives an expectations-based indicator of households’ perceptions of housing as a good investment. This indicator has declined significantly since June 2021, mainly driven by expectations of higher mortgage interest rates, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions in general.
JEL Code
R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
4 August 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
4 August 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2840
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Abstract
We propose a Bayesian VAR model with stochastic volatility and time varying skewness to estimate the degree of labour at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment rate as a function of real activity and financial risk factors. We find that the conditional distribution of the changes in the unemployment rate displays time-varying volatility and skewness, with peaks coinciding with the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We take advantage of the multivariate nature of our parametric model to measure stagflation risk defined as the possible joint event of large increases in the unemployment rate and large annual rates of inflation. We find an increasing risk of stagflation for the euro area in 2022 while in the United States stagflation risk increased earlier in 2021 and started decreasing more recently. Notwithstanding the significantly high levels of inflation, stagflation risks have been contained by the resilient performance of the labour market in both areas. The degree of labour at risk is therefore important for the assessment of the inflation-unemployment trade-off.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
4 August 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023
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Abstract
This box describes some key measures of underlying inflation and reassesses their predictive power for euro area headline inflation over a medium-term horizon. It discusses recent developments in underlying inflation and implications for the inflation outlook. It examines how underlying inflation measures can be adjusted to filter out some of the recent extraordinary shocks to inflation. Lastly, it analyses goods and services inflation individually.
JEL Code
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy

Interest rates

Marginal lending facility 4.50 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 4.25 %
Deposit facility 3.75 %
2 August 2023 Past key ECB interest rates

Inflation rate

Inflation dashboard

Exchange rates

USD US dollar 1.0713
JPY Japanese yen 157.42
GBP Pound sterling 0.85925
CHF Swiss franc 0.9561
Last update: 12 September 2023 Euro foreign exchange rates