MONETARY POLICY
27 July 2023
Latest ECB press conference
President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos explained the Governing Council’s latest monetary policy decisions and answered questions from journalists at a press conference.
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PODCAST
27 July 2023
Tune into our latest decisions
Our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to achieve stable prices in the euro area. Listen to this episode where President Christine Lagarde presents the decisions during our press conference.
The ECB Podcast
EURO
25 July 2023
New euro banknotes
We’re redesigning euro banknotes and want you to have a say in what they will look like. Take part in our survey by 31 August 2023 to tell us what you think of the shortlisted themes.
Learn more- 28 July 2023
- OTHER GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 28 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 28 July 2023
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 27 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 27 July 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 27 July 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 27 July 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 27 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 July 2023
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
- 27 July 2023
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 July 2023
- Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 9th ECB conference on central, eastern and south-eastern European countries
- 12 July 2023
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Panel Discussion on Banking Solvency and Monetary Policy, NBER Summer Institute 2023 Macro, Money and Financial Frictions Workshop
- 7 July 2023
- Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at King’s College London
- 27 June 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 on “Macroeconomic stabilisation in a volatile inflation environment” in Sintra, Portugal
- 7 July 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Geneviève Van Lède on 5 July 2023
- 25 June 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez, John Müller and Daniel Caballero
- 8 June 2023
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 1 June 2023
- 7 June 2023
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Wouter Vervenne and Kris van Hamme on 31 May 2023
- 2 June 2023
- Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 12 July 2023
- After decades of being both hero and villain, globalisation is said to be on the retreat. There is a common perception that companies are diversifying supply chains and relocating business closer to home. So, are we heading towards deglobalisation? We dig deeper and find that the data tell a different story.Details
- JEL Code
- F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
- 5 July 2023
- Central banks need to look ahead to make good decisions. Since we lack a crystal ball, economic models are the best tool available. They provide a test environment to craft and think through different scenarios. This ECB Blog post provides an overview of why, and how, we do this.Details
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 28 June 2023
- Contribution by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President of the European CommissionEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +Details
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 21 June 2023
- Digitalisation has boosted some European firms’ productivity, but many are still on the digital sidelines. That is a pity as faster digital adoption could make our economies much more productive. This ECB Blog post looks at where and how digitalisation can be a gamechanger.Details
- JEL Code
- O31 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 8 June 2023
- Humanity needs nature to survive, and so do the economy and banks. The more species become extinct, the less diverse are the ecosystems on which we rely. This presents a growing financial risk that cannot be ignored, warns Frank Elderson, member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB.Details
- JEL Code
- Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
Q20 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Renewable Resources and Conservation→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 28 July 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 28 July 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 28 July 2023
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 28 July 2023
- ANNEX
Related- 28 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 28 July 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 26 June and 5 July, aggregate activity continued to stagnate in the second quarter of 2023, with differences across sectors still notable. Activity declined in the construction and intermediate goods sectors and in related transport and logistics services. However, consumer spending was proving more resilient than many expected. The growth rate of selling prices continued to decelerate, especially in the industrial sector, as non-labour input costs stabilised. Expectations for wage growth remained strong but showed some signs of moderation when looking forwards to 2024.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 25 July 2023
- THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 25 July 2023
- BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 25 July 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 20 July 2023
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 46Details
- Abstract
- This report summarises the stylized facts from the fourth wave of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey, which provides household-level data collected in a harmonised way in all 19 euro area countries, as well as in the Czech Republic, Croatia and Hungary for a sample of more than 83,000 households. Although the survey does not refer to the same time period in all countries, the most common reference period for the data is 2021. The report presents results on household assets and liabilities, income, and indicators of consumption and credit constraints
- Network
- Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
- 20 July 2023
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 45Details
- Abstract
- This report summarises the methodologies used in the fourth wave of the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey, which provides household-level data collected in a harmonised way in all 19 euro area countries, as well as in the Czech Republic, Croatia and Hungary. The total sample size is composed of more than 83,000 households. Although the survey does not refer to the same time period in all countries, the most common reference period for the data is 2021. The report presents the methodologies applied in areas such as data collection, sample design, weighting, imputation, and variance estimation. It also addresses statistical disclosure control issues and analyses issues that may have an effect on the comparability of the survey data across countries and across waves.
- Network
- Household Finance and Consumption Network (HFCN)
- 19 July 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2832Details
- Abstract
- The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and unobserved indicator of the business cycle, important financial or external imbalances that may lead to future recessions may not be captured. This paper presents a suite of estimates of output gaps incorporating financial variables. The estimates are based both on small unobserved components models and a large unobserved components model that follows a production function approach. The results show that exploiting the information content of financial variables, which co-move strongly with the output cycle, can sometimes improve output gap estimates. However, these improvements are of a limited magnitude and very sensitive to the choice of the chosen financial variables.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 17 July 2023
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 109Details
- Abstract
- Regulation to control carbon emissions challenges firms to develop optimal carbon management policies. We set out a unified approach to study the trade-offs carbon pricing poses for firms and how they should therefore best respond. Our model shows that while carbon pricing curtails firms’ carbon emissions, polluting firms tilt their green investment mix towards more immediate yet short-lived options – such as solely reducing emissions (abatement) instead of investing in green innovation – as it becomes costlier to comply. Under emissions trading systems, larger balances of carbon credits dampen firms’ efforts to reduce their carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals that carbon regulation does not necessarily reduce shareholder value if firms are sufficiently committed to reducing their carbon footprint.
- JEL Code
- G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
D62 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Externalities
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 325Details
- Abstract
- Inflation affects the purchasing power of households. This paper documents large, idiosyncratic inflation differences between households in their everyday shopping. Low-income households have experienced higher inflation in the last ten years, but the difference to richer households has been small and time varying. Household-specific behaviour appears to dominate inflation differences within countries. Between countries, multinational retail chains not only differentiate products by branding, but also charge different prices for identical products. Retailers continue to differentiate prices along national borders, even within largely integrated economic regions. Price changes, however, are broadly aligned across borders within the same retailers.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D3 : Microeconomics→Distribution
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 324Details
- Abstract
- The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a deep recession globally, as well as in the euro area, accompanied by a steep decline in inflation rates in 2020. This paper reviews some of the main challenges created by the pandemic for inflation measurement and provides micro price data analysis of how price setting has reacted to the strong COVID-19 shock. For this purpose, we use three different, but complementary, microdata sources for specific countries and sectors: micro price data underlying the official consumer price indices in Germany, Italy, Latvia and Slovakia; (scanner) data from German and Italian supermarkets; and online (web-scraped) prices for Poland. A common finding of the micro price studies in this paper is that state dependence significantly contributed to the price-setting response to the COVID-19 shock. Nevertheless, the extent and degree of responses varies widely by sector and even country, also depending on the severity of the pandemic situation.
- JEL Code
- D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 323Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an extensive literature review and analyses some open issues in the measurement of inflation that can only be explored in depth using micro price data. It builds on the analysis done in the context of the ECB’s strategy review, which pointed at directions for improvement of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), including better quantification of potential biases. Two such biases are the substitution bias and the quality adjustment bias. Most analyses of substitution bias rest on the concept of the cost of living, positing that preferences are stable, homogeneous and homothetic. Consumer behaviour is characterised by preference shifts and heterogeneity, which influence the measurement of the cost of living and substitution bias. Climate change may make the impact of preference shifts particularly relevant as it causes the introduction of new varieties of “green” goods and services (zero-kilometre food, sustainable tourism) and a shift from “brown” to “green” products. Furthermore, PRISMA data show that consumption baskets and thus inflation vary across income classes (e.g. higher-income households tend to buy more expensive goods), pointing to non-homotheticity of preferences. When preferences are heterogeneous and/or non-homothetic, it is important to monitor different experiences of inflation across classes of consumers/citizens. This is particularly important when very large relative price changes affect items that enter the consumption baskets of the rich and the poor, the young and the old, in very different proportions. Another open area of analysis concerns the impact of quality adjustment on measured inflation. Evidence based on web-scraped prices shows that the various implicit quality adjustment methods can produce widely varying inflation trends when product churn is fast. In the euro area specifically, using different quality adjustment methods can be an overlooked source of divergent inflation trends in sub-categories, and, if pervasive, shows up in overall measured inflation divergence across countries.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 322Details
- Abstract
- This paper discusses the normative implications of the micro evidence on heterogeneity in price setting gathered by the Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA) for the level of inflation that central banks should target. The micro price data underlying the consumer price index are used to estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle. Minimising the welfare consequences of relative price distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive inflation rate in France, Germany and Italy: the steady-state inflation rate, jointly maximising welfare in all three countries, ranges from 1.1% to 1.7%. Other considerations not taken into account in the present paper may push up optimal inflation targets further. The welfare costs of targeting an inflation rate of zero, as suggested by monetary models ignoring relative price trends, or of targeting 4%, turn out to be substantial.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 321Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the implications of the evidence on micro price setting gathered by Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA) for inflation dynamics and monetary policy, relying on calibrated models and direct empirical evidence. According to models calibrated to the euro area micro evidence in Gautier et al. (2022, 2023), infrequent price changes and moderate state dependence in price setting should result in a meaningful Phillips curve in the euro area. Empirical estimates of the Phillips curve during the low-inflation period confirm previous findings of a relatively flat but stable slope. This estimated flat slope reflects both infrequent and subdued price adjustment in response to aggregate shocks, i.e. the presence of nominal and real rigidities. Model-based simulations show that, due to non-linearities in price setting, changes in trend inflation above 5-6% would have significant effects on the euro area Phillips curve. Similarly, shocks to nominal costs larger than 15% would result in non-linear effects on inflation dynamics in calibrated models. In line with these simulations, recent micro evidence suggests that the return of higher and more volatile inflation seems to be associated with higher frequencies of price changes, mainly because the frequency of price increases rises with the level and volatility of inflation.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 320Details
- Abstract
- E-commerce has become more prevalent throughout Europe in the last decade. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic accelerated this trend, particularly in the retail sector. This paper focuses on the implications of increasing business-to-consumer e-commerce for prices and inflation in the euro area. It highlights three key results. First, whether online prices and inflation are higher or lower than their offline counterparts depends on the distribution model, the sector and the country. Moreover, properly selected online prices track official inflation indices even in real time. Second, the effect of e-commerce on inflation appears to be transient and differs between countries. However, as the penetration of some markets is still low, these transitory effects will likely persist at the euro area level for several years. Third, online prices change more frequently than offline prices. This might lead to greater price flexibility overall as online trade gains market share in a growing number of sectors.
- JEL Code
- D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
- 17 July 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 319Details
- Abstract
- This paper documents five stylised facts relating to price adjustment in the euro area, using various micro price datasets collected in a period with relatively low and stable inflation. First, price changes are infrequent in the core sectors. On average, 12% of consumer prices change each month, falling to 8.5% when sales prices are excluded. The frequency of producer price adjustment is greater (25%), reflecting that the prices of intermediate goods and energy are more flexible. For both consumer and producer prices, cross-sectoral heterogeneity is more pronounced than cross-country heterogeneity. Second, price changes tend to be large and heterogeneous. For consumer prices, the typical absolute price change is about 10%, and the distribution of price changes shows a broad dispersion. For producer prices, the typical absolute price change is smaller, but nevertheless larger than inflation. Third, price setting is mildly state-dependent: the probability of price adjustment rises with the size of price misalignment, mainly reflecting idiosyncratic shocks, but it does not increase very sharply. Fourth, for both consumer and producer prices, the repricing rate showed no trend in the period 2005-19 but was more volatile in the short run. Fifth, small cyclical variations in frequency did not contribute much to fluctuations in aggregate inflation, which instead mainly reflected shifts in the average size of price changes. Consistent with idiosyncratic shocks as the main driver of price changes, aggregate disturbances affected inflation by shifting the relative number of firms increasing or decreasing their prices, rather than the size of price increases and decreases.
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 14 July 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2831Details
- Abstract
- We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011-2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. This evidence is in line with the Skill Biased Technological Change theory. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. Country heterogeneity for this result seems to be linked to the pace of technology diffusion and education, but also to the level of product market regulation (competition) and employment protection laws. In contrast to the findings for employment, we find little evidence for a relationship between wages and potential exposures to new technologies.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 14 July 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2830Details
- Abstract
- Density forecasts of euro area inflation are a fundamental input for a medium-term oriented central bank, such as the European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between euro area (headline and core) inflation and a large set of determinants, is competitive with state-of-the-art linear benchmarks and judgemental survey forecasts. The median forecasts of the quantile regression forest are very collinear with the ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from “linearity”. Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is overwhelmingly linear, this finding suggests that the expert judgement embedded in the ECB forecast may be characterized by some mild non-linearity.
- JEL Code
- C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 13 July 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 13 July 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2829Details
- Abstract
- Life insurers sell savings contracts with surrender options, which allow policyholders to prematurely receive guaranteed surrender values. These surrender options move toward the money when interest rates rise. Hence, higher interest rates raise surrender rates, as we document empirically by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in monetary policy. Using a calibrated model, we then estimate that surrender options would force insurers to sell up to 2% of their investments during an enduring interest rate rise of 25 bps per year. We show that these fire sales are fueled by surrender value guarantees and insurers’ long-term investments.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G52 : Financial Economics
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 4.50 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 4.25 % |
| Deposit facility | 3.75 % |
Inflation rate
Inflation dashboardExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1010 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 153.35 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85560 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9554 |
Financial stability
Our tasks Institutional framework Financial Stability Review Macroprudential policy measuresMarket operations
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