SPEECH
10 July 2025
What will the digital euro bring to Europe?
The digital euro will complement cash by offering its equivalent for digital transactions and will enhance Europe’s sovereignty, resilience and innovation potential in payments, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone in a speech at Banka Slovenije.
Read Piero Cipollone's speech
SPEECH
9 July 2025
The monetary agenda at the ECB
Chief Economist Philip R. Lane discusses the monetary policy stance, our updated monetary policy strategy and a more resilient euro area financial architecture in a speech at the House of the Euro in Brussels.
Read Philip R. Lane's speech
PODCAST
9 July 2025
Ask the ECB Forum: defence, tariffs and AI
You asked, the ECB Forum answered. Our host Stefania Secola takes us around the conference and gets top experts to answer your questions on tariffs, monetary policy, the economy and AI.
Listen to the latest episode of The ECB Podcast- 9 July 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 9 July 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 8 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 4 July 2025
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 3 July 2025
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 5 June 2025
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 3 July 2025
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
- 10 July 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Banka Slovenije
- 9 July 2025
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the Euro
- 4 July 2025
- Welcome address by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting
- 30 June 2025
- Introductory speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses"
- 30 June 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
- 11 July 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by David Barwick and Marta Vilar on 9 July 2025
- 16 June 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi and Francesco Cánepa on 12 June 2025
- 14 June 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Su Liang on 12 June 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 20 May 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Leonidas Stergiou on 21 May 2025
- 11 July 2025
- European banks have made forward strides in managing climate and nature-related risks. But more still needs to be done as we often see that practices are only applied to a subset of relevant exposures, geographic areas and risk categories. To help banks improve further, later this year the ECB will publish an updated set of good practices observed in banks across Europe. European banks are well positioned to meet the prudential transition plan requirements, which the ECB will approach in a gradual and tailored manner.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 9 July 2025
- Climate change is no longer “the Tragedy of the Horizon”, as Mark Carney put it, but an imminent danger. In the next five years, extreme weather events could already put up to 5% of the euro area’s economic output at risk, according to the new short-term scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).
- 8 July 2025
- Over the last 25 years the EU’s trading partners have become less and less democratic. The ECB Blog investigates the background of this development and the dynamics at play.Details
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
- 3 July 2025
- European and national authorities have joined forces with banks to integrate reporting requirements across Europe. This will reduce costs for banks and improve data quality. In this blog post we describe the European integrated reporting initiative and present some initial results.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 27 June 2025
- There is now an urgent need to channel retail savings into European capital markets in order to develop those markets and finance EU priorities. In this edition of the ECB Blog, we show that an EU savings standard could increase retail participation in the capital markets, benefiting savers, boosting investment in EU companies and supporting strategic priorities.[1]Details
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 10 July 2025
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 51Details
- Abstract
- One of the main goals of launching the EU’s second Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) and the respective Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation (MiFIR) was to increase the transparency of transactions in financial markets. Prior to MiFID II, transparency requirements in financial markets were limited mostly to equities traded in regulated markets. Following MiFID II, transactions now need to be publicly reported for a broader range of financial assets. Furthermore, disclosures on financial transactions are not restricted to those transactions executed in regulated markets but apply also to those executed over the counter. Importantly, this information should be made available free of charge, ensuring non-discriminatory access, within the 15 minutes following the transaction. The published information should also be machine-readable. The purpose of this paper is to show how a relatively simple IT tool may be devised that gathers data on market prices and transacted volumes published in compliance with MiFID II. We steer our simple IT tool towards retrieving data on those financial assets that are eligible for use as collateral in Eurosystem credit operations. This includes those assets eligible for outright purchase under the various monetary policy programmes launched by the Eurosystem. In view of the importance of UK financial markets when it comes to trading in Eurosystem eligible marketable assets, our tool also covers transactions and quotes reported by UK trading venues and investment firms in compliance with UK MiFIR. Apart from the merits and potential of our IT tool, this paper documents some of the tool’s shortcomings related to processing the posted MiFID II and UK MiFIR raw data. It also covers some of the deficiencies associated with the data. Increased market transparency contributes to deeper and more integrated financial markets, potentially supporting economic growth. […]
- JEL Code
- C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
- 9 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3073Details
- Abstract
- How do violent conflicts shape cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by 14,021 creditors to firms in 179 countries (1989–2020), we document a dual effect: foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but significantly increase financing to military and dual-use sectors during conflicts. This reallocation is stronger among lenders less specialized in the conflict country, more specialized in military lending, and domiciled in politically non-aligned nations. Effects are geographically contained and temporally limited, dissipating post-conflict. Our findings reveal how global banks strategically redirect credit toward military sectors during armed conflicts, despite reducing overall country exposure.
- JEL Code
- D74 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Alliances
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 9 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3072Details
- Abstract
- We show theoretically how the anticipated cross-selling of loans incentivizes banks to offer lower deposit spreads to attract and retain depositors, more when policy rates are lower and future cross-selling is more valuable. Utilizing comprehensive data on every Norwegian bank household relationship, we then establish empirically how banks facing identical loan demand respond to policy rate cuts with greater deposit spread reductions for clients with higher cross-selling potential, thereby raising both deposit and loan growth. Cross-selling constitutes a complementary, novel channel for monetary policy transmission through banks, elucidates loss-making deposit pricing in low-rate periods, and connects banks’ deposit and loan franchises.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 8 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 7 July 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL STATEMENT
- 7 July 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 7 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 4 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3071Details
- Abstract
- We provide estimates of profit shifting for over 2 million firm-year observations in 100 countries over the period 2009–2020. Employing nonparametric estimation techniques within a mainstay model of profit shifting, we examine how the profits of both parent and subsidiary firms within a multinational group respond to marginal changes in the composite tax indicator. The key advantage of this approach is that it yields firm-year estimates of profit shifting. Multinational firms engage in extensive profit shifting by maintaining affiliates in low-tax countries and zero-tax havens. Multinational groups with an ultimate tax-haven owner exhibit the largest profit response to tax incentives. Our new database opens important avenues for analyzing the sources and effects of profit shifting.
- JEL Code
- F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
H26 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Tax Evasion
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
M41 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Accounting and Auditing→Accounting
- 4 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3070Details
- Abstract
- We show that in a canonical model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs, financial frictions, and an imperfectly elastic supply of capital, a fall in the interest rate has an ambiguous effect on aggregate economic activity. In partial equilibrium, a lower interest rate raises aggregate investment both by relaxing financial constraints and by prompting relatively less productive entrepreneurs to invest. In general equilibrium, however, this higher demand for capital raises its price and crowds out investment by more productive entrepreneurs. When this reallocation is strong enough, a fall in the interest rate reduces aggregate output. A numerical exploration of the model suggests that this reallocation effect i s quantitatively significant an d – in response to persistent changes in th e interest rate – stronger than the traditional balance-sheet channel. We provide evidence of the reallocation effect using US firm-level data.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 4 July 2025
- TARGET SERVICES ANNUAL REPORT
- 3 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3069Details
- Abstract
- In this event study, we analyze the effect of market segmentation on stock returns in Europe amid extreme weather events. We show that local institutional ownership (LIO) mitigates the negative effect of the uncertainty from the occurrence of extreme weather events on stock prices. We assess firms’ exposure to physical climate risks using the Eurosystem’s method that uses physical climate risk indicators. In a sample with materially exposed industries, we find a negative risk-adjusted abnormal return of 99 basis points for storms on the event date. This negative return is mitigated however by 1.3% for each percentage point increase in LIO. We confirm the mitigating role of LIO by testing the information hypothesis through two channels: the distance between a firm’s headquarters and the affected facility and its exposure to physical risk.
- JEL Code
- C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 2 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3068Details
- Abstract
- We characterize optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing. The framework gives rise to nonlinear inflation dynamics: The flexibility of the price level increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency of price changes. In response to large cost-push shocks, optimal policy leverages the lower sacrifice ratio to curb inflation. When faced with total factor productivity shocks, an efficient disturbance, the optimal policy commits to strict price stability. The optimal long-run inflation rate is just above zero.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 1 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3067Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange (FX) shocks on income inequality across 31 European countries from 2003 to 2021. Leveraging a unique database of household-level longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and exchange rate data from the Bank of International Settlements, we investigate how currency devaluations and appreciations influence income distribution. Our findings indicate that a 1% currency devaluation decreases income inequality by 15 basis points within one year, while appreciations have the reverse effect. Contrary to previous studies focused on Latin America, which credit reductions in inequality to both labor mobility and union influence, our analysis identifies labor mobility as the primary factor in Europe. Furthermore, we discover that income changes are predominantly driven by variations in income per hour rather than hours worked.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
- 1 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3066Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies how Treasury market dynamics depend on adjustments to the central bank balance sheet. We introduce a dynamic model of Treasury bonds with traditional and shadow banks. In the model, both Treasury and repo market disruptions arise as a joint consequence of three frictions: (i) balance sheet costs,(ii) intraday reserves requirements, and (iii) imperfect substitutability between repo and bank deposits. Our model highlights the critical role of both sides of the central bank’s balance sheet as well as agents’ anticipation of shocks and policy interventions in matching observed market dynamics.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 1 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 1 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 1 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 371Details
- Abstract
- This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.
- 30 June 2025
- STRATEGY REVIEWEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 30 June 2025
- STRATEGY REVIEW
- 30 June 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3065Details
- Abstract
- We analyze the international dimension of repo markets using novel euro area regulatory microdata. Our findings highlight the deep integration of funding markets across the Atlantic and the US dollar’s outsized role. Our paper documents five key facts: (1) US dollar repos by euro area entities account for approximately 40% of total volumes and are comparable in size to euro repos; (2) term repos (with maturities beyond one day) are quantitatively more relevant than commonly thought, especially non-centrally cleared ones; (3) repo markets have become more collateral-driven, involving diverse nonbank financial players and trading motives; (4) banks’ intragroup transactions form a large share of non-centrally cleared volumes; and (5) haircuts, even for riskier collateral, are often zero or negative, especially in euro trades. We show in two empirical applications that US monetary policy shocks spill over to euro repo rates and that negative haircuts arise from market power and collateral demand dynamics.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2.00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2.15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2.40 % |
Inflation rate
More on inflationExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1683 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 171.81 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86570 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9310 |
Financial stability
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