ACCOUNT
10 October 2024
Account of the September monetary policy meeting
The Governing Council decided to cut interest rates. Recent incoming data and the virtually unchanged staff projections had increased confidence that disinflation was broadly on track.
Read the account
INTERVIEW
8 October 2024
Outlook for the euro area
Executive Board member Frank Elderson discusses euro area monetary policy, the inflation outlook, banking supervision, cross-border banking consolidation and the economic impact of climate change and nature degradation in an interview with Delo.
Read the interview
THE ECB BLOG
9 October 2024
Critical inputs, a disruptive impact?
China has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value added for manufacturers in five countries.
Read The ECB Blog- 10 October 2024
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 12 September 2024
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 9 October 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 9 October 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 4 October 2024
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
- 4 October 2024
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
- 2 October 2024
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 7 October 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2024: bridging science and practice
- 7 October 2024
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bundesbank Symposium on the Future of Payments
- 4 October 2024
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Sustainable Finance Lab Symposium on Finance in Transition
- 2 October 2024
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Walter Eucken Lecture 2024 at University of Freiburg, Germany
- 2 October 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at at the 5th joint ECB, Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Conference on expectations surveys, central banks and the economy
- 8 October 2024
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko
- 20 September 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Gonçalo Almeida on 13 September
- 4 September 2024
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 26 July 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 22 July 2024
- 23 July 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
- 9 October 2024
- China has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value added for manufacturers in five countries.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
- 3 October 2024
- Monetary policy decisions have direct financial consequences for many consumers, especially as they influence mortgage conditions. The ECB Blog looks at how these effects differ based on consumers’ mortgage situations and why that matters for the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E49 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Other
- 25 September 2024
- The job of central banks is to help the economy navigate shocks and steer inflation back to target. This ECB Blog post asks what we can learn from past monetary policy cycles about how to control inflation while achieving a soft landing of the economy.
- 24 September 2024
- Hedge funds have substantially increased their trading activity in euro area government bond and repo markets. The ECB Blog evaluates how this plays out for market functioning and intermediation.Details
- JEL Code
- H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
- 17 September 2024
- Energy-intensive firms continue to suffer from low profits margins even as energy prices have fallen from their peak. The ECB Blog discusses implications for the green transition in the EU.
- 8 October 2024
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- The change in macroeconomic conditions since the ECB’s strategy review in 2021 towards an environment characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates, and renewed concerns about elevated government debt has been a vocal reminder of the intricate interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies. Against this background, our paper reviews the literature on how central banks’ ability to maintain price stability is shaped by their interactions with fiscal policy and the state of the economy. According to standard models, a policy framework aimed at price stability requires suitable commitments from both monetary and fiscal authorities. When public debt burdens become too high, price stability may be at risk. The paper also draws lessons on how to mitigate such risks.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 7 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2988Details
- Abstract
- The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights than imposed as a percentage of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs) under Pillar 2. In other words, market discipline on bank capital adequacy is sensitive to the composition of the capital requirement stack. Therefore, this paper contributes novel insights to existing research on the market relevance of regulatory capital ratios, on the functioning of the Basel framework, and on market discipline along with its relationship with Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 capital requirements. The findings are relevant in light of the continuous discussions around the capital regulation for Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) and other Pillar 2 risks because they suggest that risks are more disciplined by markets if they are reflected in regulatory capital ratios via RWAs. Moreover, the results suggest that further regulatory alignment within the EU can impact the comparability of regulatory capital ratios and affect pricing decisions. In the first empirical step, the research investigates the drivers of CDS and identifies a significant relationship between CDS spreads and regulatory capital ratios. In the second step, the paper researches a quasi-natural experiment based on an event in the EU banking sector. In 2018, the Swedish supervisory authority changed the implementation approach of a risk weight floor on Swedish mortgages by shifting it from Pillar 2 to Pillar 1 while keeping total capital requirements stable. To assess if this merely technical regulatory adjustment triggered an unexpected reaction by markets, a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression is applied to a sample of CDS spreads of 21 European banks between 2014 and 2020.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 7 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2987Details
- Abstract
- Using a new series of crypto shocks, we document that money market funds’ (MMF) assets under management, and traditional financial market variables more broadly, do not react to crypto shocks, whereas stablecoin market capitalization does. U.S. monetary policy shocks, in contrast, drive developments in both crypto and traditional markets. Crucially, the reaction of MMF assets and stablecoin market capitalization to monetary policy shocks is different: while prime-MMF assets rise after a monetary policy tightening, stablecoin market capitalization declines. In assessing the state of the stablecoin market, the risk-taking environment as dictated by monetary policy is much more consequential than flight-to-quality dynamics observed within stablecoins and MMFs.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 2 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2986Details
- Abstract
- We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers’ responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher estimates of the pass-through than those obtained from micro data. Our methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which turns out to be particularly large for moderate inflation expectations. We find significant heterogeneity in the inflation pass-through across countries, ages and income groups, consistent with different wage and pension indexation regimes.
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 1 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2985Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank’s profit and loss statement. Ourfindings reveal, however, that while the interplay of such policies may dampen short-term profitability if interest rates rise, they do not undermine a central bank’s financial strength, because higher interest rates also raise the value of future seigniorage income. Using data for the euro area, we quantify the consequences for inflation of setting interest rates aimed at mitigating financial losses, showing that such a strategy would lead to substantially higher inflation rates. Overall, our findings confirm that a central bank’s willingness to accept temporary losses reflects a commitment to price stability, rather than a hindrance.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 1 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2984Details
- Abstract
- We explore the increasing divergence between economic growth and energy consumption through energy-saving technical progress. Proposing a new measure of energy-saving technology, we study the underlying drivers in a semi-structural model of the U.S. economy. Our analysis shows that energy price shocks reduce consumption and stimulate energy-saving innovation, but also cause economic downturns and crowd out other innovations. Only energy-saving technology shocks can explain the negative co-movement between output and energy use. These sudden efficiency gains emerge as the primary driver of energy-saving technical change. Our findings highlight the importance of fostering energy-saving innovations in transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
- JEL Code
- E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
Q32 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation→Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
- 30 September 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 27 September 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 26 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 26 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- The increase in policy rates has translated into higher interest rates on deposits in both the euro area and the United States, albeit more so in the euro area despite a smaller increase in the policy rate and a lower starting point. As in previous hiking cycles, the increase in remuneration has been considerably smaller for overnight deposits than for other assets, triggering a rebalancing of money holders’ portfolios in both economies. As policy rates increased, credit to firms and households fell more sharply in the euro area than in the United States. The pass-through to lending rates was rather similar. Yet, the greater prevalence of fixed rate mortgages in the United States entailed a slower transmission to rates on existing mortgages. The developments in deposits and loans were mirrored in broad money growth, with high US deposit volumes reflecting the much larger pandemic-related asset purchases by the Fed, and with the moderation in lending volumes having been the main driver of the weakening in monetary dynamics in the euro area, whereas in the US, other sources were the initial drivers, with bank lending only contributing later.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 26 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2024, from 17 April to 23 July 2024.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 26 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Consumer confidence in the euro area plummeted when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has remained at a low level since then, despite some recovery. This box analyses the underlying factors that explain this subdued consumer confidence and assesses the implications of persistently low confidence for private consumption going forward. It finds that rising inflation was the initial cause of the decline in consumer confidence compared with the pre-invasion period, followed later by the increasingly negative effects of higher borrowing costs coupled with declining house prices. Moreover, the fact that consumer confidence is still subdued suggests that private consumption will only improve moderately in the short term.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E29 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Other
- 25 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Wage indicators give policymakers a key perspective on the outlook for inflation through the effect of wages on the price-setting of firms and on the consumption behaviour of households. This box studies recent developments in wage indicators, with a particular focus on wage drift, which has recently been in decline. The moderation of wage drift is key to explaining the easing of growth in compensation per employee. This is due to negotiated wage growth taking over the role of achieving inflation compensation from wage drift. The recovery of average hours worked after the pandemic had also been pushing the wage drift up, but this impact has weakened recently.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J52 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor?Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining→Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation, Collective Bargaining
- 25 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings from an ECB survey in which leading firms were asked about key labour market trends. The responses suggest that recruiting new employees has become more difficult in recent years, owing particularly to labour shortages, and that this is the main motivation for firms to hoard labour during downturns. Reduced working hours are said to reflect the preferences of employees more than of firms. The increase in remote working has helped to expand the potential pool of job candidates and reduced the cost of office space but is also perceived by some firms to have reduced productivity. The survey also asked about the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (generative AI). Responses point to a significant take-up of generative AI over the past 18 months, motivated in particular by the wish to increase employee access to information.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 24 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- The role of nature in economic activity is insufficiently incorporated in economic statistics. While economic growth in Europe in recent decades has been lower than in some other regions, it has been achieved alongside a reduction in pollution, and once these benefits have been accounted for, this growth appears more favourable. In 2019 the estimated value of ecosystem services in the EU amounted to over €234 billion. However, understanding how nature loss may affect future output requires more than just calculating the monetary value of ecosystem services, it is crucial to develop and monitor statistical measures that explicitly capture the evolution of nature.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 24 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Nature is crucial to human wellbeing and provides essential ecosystem services that support economic activity. However, the economic value of these services is often undervalued because they are not traded in markets or given a direct monetary value. Nature degradation, including biodiversity loss, threatens the continued provision of these critical services, potentially leading to significant macroeconomic consequences that affect price and financial stability. Recent analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that nearly three-quarters of the euro area economy and financial system are critically dependent on healthy ecosystems. Therefore, a systematic, proactive and comprehensive approach to quantifying and assessing the impact of escalating nature-related economic and financial risks on price and financial stability is essential. This article discusses the implications from a central banking perspective, emphasising the importance of an integrated approach to climate change and nature-related risks. It further explores the impact of these risks on our economy and seeks a deeper understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.
- JEL Code
- C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
C60 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q20 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Renewable Resources and Conservation→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 24 September 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2983Details
- Abstract
- This paper introduces a Bayesian Quantile Factor Augmented VAR (BQFAVAR) to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policy throughout the business cycle. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the model effectively captures non-linearities in impulse responses. Analysis of aggregate responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock reveals that financial variables and industrial production exhibit more pronounced impacts during recessions compared to expansions, aligning with predictions from the ’financial accelerator’ propagation mechanism literature. Additionally, inflation displays a higher level of symmetry across economic conditions, consistent with households’ loss aversion in the context of reference-dependent preferences and central banks’ commitment to maintaining price stability. The examination of price rigidities at a granular level, employing sectoral prices and quantities, demonstrates that during recessions, the contractionary policy shock results in a more pronounced negative impact on quantities compared to expansions. This finding provides support for the notion of stronger downward than upward price rigidity, as suggested by ’menu-costs models’.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Labour productivity growth in the euro area remains significantly below its pre-pandemic levels, whereas in the United States it is largely in line with the pre-pandemic trend. The slower growth in euro area labour productivity has been broadly based across sectors. This discrepancy in productivity growth between the two regions partly stems from the higher procyclicality of labour productivity in the euro area. However, structural factors are also likely to play a significant role in explaining productivity differences between the two regions and are rooted in weak contributions from capital accumulation and innovation in the euro area. These factors have arguably been present since well before the pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
- 23 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Over the past few decades, the euro area has gradually lost market share in global trade. This article describes the long-term trends underlying the decline in the euro area’s market share, relating it to losses in competitiveness in foreign markets. It explains how a series of recent global shocks – such as pandemic-related supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions and the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – as well as other factors affecting price and non-price competitiveness had an asymmetric impact on the euro area compared with its main trading partners and exposed important vulnerabilities in its external competitiveness. These vulnerabilities are particularly significant in view of the challenges ahead, which are linked to the persistence of the energy shock, risks associated with geo-economic fragmentation and the ongoing structural transformation of the European and global economies.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- 18 September 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 122Details
- Abstract
- What factors could drive transactional demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We analyse payment survey data to arrive at a framework for understanding the role of adoption frictions and design strategies in shaping CBDC demand. The results of our analysis show that, while consumers may initially prefer to use more traditional payment methods, a design tailored to their specific needs could significantly increase CBDC uptake. Raising awareness and capitalising on network effects could also boost demand for CBDC.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 3.90 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 3.65 % |
| Deposit facility | 3.50 % |
Inflation rate
More on inflationExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.0932 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 162.85 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83686 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9393 |
Financial stability
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