Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
INTERVIEW
21 February 2026
The international role of the euro
The euro enjoys wide support in Europe. A trustworthy, independent central bank reinforces that perception, President Christine Lagarde tells Wall Street Journal. However, a currency’s international role depends on geopolitical strength, military capacity, trade reliability, and the rule of law.
Read President Lagarde’s interview
DIGITAL EURO
19 February 2026
Safeguarding people’s freedom to pay
In this fast-changing world, we must show Europeans that we respond to challenges head-on – by protecting our currency and guaranteeing people’s freedom to pay as they choose, says Executive Board member Piero Cipollone in a speech at the Italian Senate.
Read Piero Cipollone’s speech
RESEARCH
Young economists wanted!
Are you a PhD student in economics or finance? Apply for our Young Economist Prize by 2 March 2026 to be in with a chance of winning €10,000 and sharing your research at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal.
Apply for our Young Economist Prize- 19 February 2026
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 18 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 17 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 17 February 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 17 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 14 February 2026
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 14 February 2026
- EUREP FAQ
- 23 February 2026
- Acceptance speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, for the 2026 Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award at the 42nd Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington DC, United States
- 20 February 2026
- Acceptance speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, for the Wolfgang Friedmann Memorial Award 2026 at Columbia Law School in New York
- 19 February 2026
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Italian Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry into the Banking, Financial and Insurance System
- 18 February 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities in cooperation with ESMT in Berlin, Germany
- 18 February 2026
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at ABI Executive Committee meeting
- 21 February 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Emma Tucker, Chelsey Dulaney, Greg Ip, Nick Timiraos, Daniel Colarusso and Amol Sharma on 19 February 2026
- 19 February 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Laura Noonan and Nick Comfort on 17 February 2026
- 10 February 2026
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marta Vilar on 6 February 2026
- 8 February 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Thalia Neophytou on 6 February 2026
- 28 January 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Manuel V. Gomez on 22 January 2026
- 19 February 2026
- Climate change has become an important factor for fiscal policy, debt sustainability and sovereign risk. This blog post shows how climate shocks can push up bond yields, especially for highly indebted and developing countries.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 16 February 2026
- Artificial intelligence has the potential to make economic research more effective. But how exactly? This ECB Blog post gives a concrete example. We look at the use of AI to streamline the processes and analytical capabilities of our Corporate Telephone Survey.Details
- JEL Code
- O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
C00 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→General
- 13 February 2026
- Europe’s largest asset managers serve investors across the EU. Yet they remain supervised solely at national level, creating potential blind spots for risks. This calls for a European approach to their supervision, which could also foster cross-border financing.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
- 12 February 2026
- Europe has ideas, talent and strong institutions, but it lacks scale. By introducing a 28th regime, Europe can unlock its full potential, allowing firms to turn innovation into economic growth.Details
- JEL Code
- O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
- 10 February 2026
- Import tariffs imposed by other countries tend to lower euro area inflation and weaken growth. However, the sectors most exposed are also the most responsive to interest rate changes. This means that monetary policy can help offset disinflationary pressures and support activity.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
- 23 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3191Details
- Abstract
- Sequence-space models are becoming increasingly popular in macroeconomics, especially in the heterogeneous-agent literature. However, the econometric toolkit for users of these models remains less developed than that available for traditional state-space methods. This note introduces an algorithm for efficiently filtering unobserved shocks in linear sequence-space models. The proposed filter solves a least-squares optimization problem in closed form and returns the expectation of unobserved shocks conditional on observed data. It handles heteroskedasticity, missing observations, measurement error, and non- Gaussian shock distributions. To illustrate its properties, I apply it to data simulated from a medium-scale heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model and show that it accurately recovers the underlying structural shocks.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 23 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3190Details
- Abstract
- Using information from the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey, we examine how the implementation of borrower-based macroprudential measures (BBMs) between 2009-Q1 and 2023-Q3 affected mortgage lending standards in a sample of 15 euro area countries. We find that banks generally tightened credit standards around the implementation of BBMs, with the strongest effect occurring contemporaneously. Such tightening of credit standards is observed for different types of BBMs, including limits on loan-to-value or debt-service-to-income ratios and maturities. We also find mild evidence that legally binding measures imply a stronger tightening of credit standards than measures in the form of non-binding recommendations. Finally, this tightening is more pronounced in cases where mortgage loan growth or real estate price growth is high, consistent with BBMs effectively smoothing the credit cycle.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics
- 23 February 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 140Details
- Abstract
- Using regional data for 11 euro area countries from 1999 to 2023, instead of country-level data, we find that inflation still responds to economic slack, but this relationship is more modest and largely shaped by inflation expectations. This implies that traditional demand-side central bank policies may have limited direct effects on inflation, highlighting that anchoring expectations is essential for effective monetary policy transmission.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 20 February 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a new approach to estimating the time-varying elasticity of euro area short-term money market rates to changes in excess liquidity. The approach is robust to the endogeneity between the price and volume of central bank liquidity as well as to shifts in the non-linear liquidity demand curve over time. It serves as a useful tool to monitor liquidity conditions in real time and to estimate the level of excess liquidity below which money market rates become sensitive to further reductions in excess liquidity. It currently indicates that this sensitivity remains negligible for both secured and unsecured money market rates in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- 19 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box examines how economic uncertainty influences the consumption and saving behaviour of euro area households, drawing on recent insights from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). Both the CES and the European Commission’s consumer survey point to similar trends in uncertainty over time. These show that while below its 2022-23 peak, uncertainty is still higher than the trough seen in mid-2021. Additional CES questions on the predictability of households’ financial situations reveal that respondents experiencing higher uncertainty spend less on durables and non-durables, while they save more, in line with a textbook precautionary saving motive. These findings underline the relevance of economic uncertainty in understanding current aggregate consumption and saving decisions in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- 18 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Global trade flows experienced significant shifts in 2025 following new US tariffs. After an initial frontloading surge, US imports from China declined sharply, while Chinese exports demonstrated resilience overall, with broad-based growth across destinations outside the United States. Preliminary empirical analysis shows that US tariffs had a strong negative effect on China’s exports to the United States but have resulted in limited trade diversion to other markets so far. Trade diversion effects are found to be concentrated in a narrow set of products and destinations, notably countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa. Overall, China’s export growth appears to be driven by structural factors, such as rising competitiveness, weak domestic demand and deeper regional supply chain integration, rather than large-scale tariff-induced trade diversion.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
O53 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Asia including Middle East
- 17 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Euro area housing investment has declined steadily in recent years but appears to have bottomed out at the end of 2024. This box analyses the fundamental drivers of recent housing investment dynamics using a structural empirical model. The results indicate that weak broader macroeconomic conditions and the lagged effects of past monetary policy tightening have weighed on housing investment, although this has been somewhat offset by improving housing-specific demand. Looking ahead, housing investment is expected to gradually recover as demand for housing strengthens, economic growth improves and the effects of monetary policy easing feed through.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 17 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3189Details
- Abstract
- It is well known that standard frequentist inference breaks down in IV regressions with weak instruments. Bayesian inference with diffuse priors suffers from the same problem. We show that the issue arises because flat priors on the first-stage coefficients overstate instrument strength. In contrast, inference improves drastically when an uninformative prior is specified directly on the concentration parameter—the key nuisance parameter capturing instrument relevance. The resulting Bayesian credible intervals are asymptotically equivalent to the frequentist confidence intervals based on conditioning approaches, and remain robust to weak instruments.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C26 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C36 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 17 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Electrification is central to the decarbonisation objectives of the EU. Yet, electricity prices remain elevated across the euro area compared with levels observed before the 2021-22 energy crisis, while households pay around twice as much as energy-intensive industries. This box examines the drivers of these differences in the five largest euro area countries. While short-term relief measures such as price caps and tax reductions can ease price pressures, these do not address the underlying drivers of high electricity prices. Moreover, these measures should be devised so as not to weaken decarbonisation incentives for energy-intensive industries.
- JEL Code
- Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q4 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy
- 16 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3188Details
- Abstract
- Under which conditions do usability constraints for regulatory capital buffers emerge? To answer this question, we build a non-linear structural banking sector model with a minimum capital requirement that banks are not allowed to breach, and a capital buffer requirement (CBR) that banks can breach but if they do so potential stigma applies. We prove that even very low stigma costs induce large buffer usability constraints, i.e. when faced with losses banks will deleverage significantly to avoid that their capital ratio falls below the CBR. Our findings imply that non-releasble regulatory capital buffers are unlikely to fully achieve their macro stabilisation goal to support aggregate loan supply when the banking system faces losses.
- JEL Code
- D21 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Theory
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 16 February 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the state of play for green innovation in the EU and identifies the structural barriers that are constraining the adoption and scaling- up of low-carbon technologies. These include unpriced environmental externalities, knowledge spillovers, limited risk capital markets, regulatory complexity, skills shortages and insufficient enabling infrastructure. The analysis highlights how these structural barriers interact to slow the green transition and raise transition costs. Drawing on recent ECB analysis and insights from corporate earnings calls, this article shows that addressing these obstacles requires a comprehensive policy mix, including carbon pricing, enhanced temporary subsidies, and structural policies that improve the business environment, facilitate the reallocation of resources, and stimulate competition and entrepreneurship.
- JEL Code
- Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
O3 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- 12 February 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 12 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3187Details
- Abstract
- Central clearing counterparties (CCPs) manage counterparty risk by requiring clearing members to post margins. This paper explores the role of margins as “canaries in the coal mine:” By inducing defaults of fragile counterparties before contract maturity, margin calls enable CCPs to transfer these contracts to other counterparties, thereby preserving risk sharing. Our model reveals a pecking order of CCP risk management tools. When fragility is low, loss sharing among original counterparties suffices. When fragility is high, such that defaults at contract maturity would trigger cascading failures among clearing members, the CCP optimally complements loss sharing with margins. It is optimal to use margins as canaries when the balance sheets of fragile counterparties are severely impaired. Our findings highlight the complementary nature of CCP risk management tools: margins, loss sharing, and counterparty replacement.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
- 12 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3186Details
- Abstract
- We design a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency vector autoregression (VAR) model for fiscal monitoring, i.e., to nowcast the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in real time and provide a narrative for its dynamics. The model incorporates both monthly cash and quarterly accrual fiscal indicators, together with other high-frequency macroeconomic and financial variables, as well as real GDP and the GDP deflator. Our model produces timely monthly density nowcasts of the annual deficit ratio, while governments and official institutions generally only publish their point predictions bi-annually. Based on a database of real-time vintages of macroeconomic, financial and fiscal variables for Italy, we show that the nowcasts of the annual deficit to GDP ratio of our model are similarly or more accurate than those of the European Commission, depending on the month in which the nowcast is produced. Our scenario analysis compares the dynamics of the deficit ratio associated with a monetary and a typical recession, finding a more muted response in the latter case.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 11 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3185Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the relationship between institutional and regulatory quality, and high-tech sector investment. Using data from 25 European Union (EU) countries from 2004 to 2019 (extended to 2023 for artificial intelligence-specific analyses), the study examines how institutional governance, labour market regulations, and business regulations influence investments in innovative, high-tech, and artificial intelligence-intensive sectors. The findings reveal that better institutional quality and less burdensome regulations are associated with higher investment shares in innovative, high-tech, and artificial intelligence industries. Raising EU countries’ institutional and regulatory quality to the level of the current EU frontier could raise the share of investment in high-technology sectors by as much as 50%, hence notably narrowing the existent EU-US investment gap. These results highlight the importance of effective governance and efficient regulations in fostering investment, innovation, and therefore long-term productivity growth.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
O38 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Government Policy
- 11 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3184Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the role of insurance in mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of climate-related catastrophes. We first develop a stylised theoretical growth model which incorporates a role for natural catastrophes, climate change and insurance. This illustrates how insurance can mitigate the impact of catastrophes and articulates the potential effect of falling insurance coverage as global warming intensifies. The model also provides a basis for our empirical analysis which explores the link between insurance coverage and the macroeconomic impact of catastrophes for a sample of several thousand disaster events across 47 developed and middle income countries between 1996 and 2019. The results confirm that higher insurance coverage is associated with less severe macroeconomic consequences of disasters. With climate-related catastrophes becoming ever more frequent and severe, our findings highlight the importance of developing policies to reduce the climate insurance protection gap.
- JEL Code
- G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G52 : Financial Economics
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 11 February 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 February 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3183Details
- Abstract
- I study price level determination in a currency union when some member countries’ government securities earn a convenience yield. These ”convenience assets” generate fiscal seigniorage revenues that, given appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, back the union’s price level, much like primary surpluses and monetary seigniorage do. An exogenous drop in the private-sector demand for convenience assets reduces seigniorage revenues and raises the price level. It also results in a wealth transfer across countries owing to the heterogeneity in convenience yields.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2.00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2.15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2.40 % |
Inflation rate
More on inflationExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1784 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 182.44 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87340 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9145 |
Financial stability
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