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Improved outlook for Europe

Europe is recovering more rapidly than we had anticipated, President Christine Lagarde tells David Rubenstein in an interview for Bloomberg. It is now a question of making sure that our economies bounce back in a way that positions them to be more digital and greener.

Interview
Speech 13 September 2021

New narratives on monetary policy

While rising inflation understandably worries people, current inflation rates should be interpreted with caution, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Over the past two years, people have on average lost less purchasing power than on average over the last 20 years.

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MONETARY POLICY 9 September 2021

Latest ECB press conference

President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos explained the Governing Council’s latest monetary policy decisions and answered questions from journalists at a press conference on 9 September 2021.

Find out more
PUBLICATION 13 September 2021

Explore inflation interactively

Calculate your personal inflation rate and explore the euro area and national inflation rates. We have now updated our inflation publication reflecting the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy.

Inflation publication
14 September 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
14 September 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
13 September 2021
PRESS RELEASE
10 September 2021
EURO AREA SECURITIES ISSUES STATISTICS
9 September 2021
MONETARY POLICY DECISION
7 September 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
7 September 2021
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
15 September 2021
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IMFS Policy Webinar
15 September 2021
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bond Market Contact Group meeting
13 September 2021
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 148th Baden-Baden Entrepreneurs’ Talk
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Annexes
13 September 2021
English
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9 September 2021
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB
26 August 2021
Vortrag von Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums der EZB, bei der regelmäßigen Ökonomenrunde des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen
16 September 2021
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by David Rubenstein, Bloomberg, on 13 September
1 September 2021
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, on 30 August 2021
1 September 2021
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Miquel Roig and Jorge Zuloaga on 26 August and published on 1 September 2021
English
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25 August 2021
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt
21 August 2021
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Carla Neuhaus on 17 August and published on 20 August 2021
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14 September 2021
Blog post by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Details
Summary
While rising inflation understandably worries people, current inflation rates should be interpreted with caution, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
31 August 2021
Contribution by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the International Monetary Fund’s magazine Finance and Development
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Summary
The existential threat posed by climate change implies that central banks must not stand on the sidelines in the fight against global warming, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Our ambitious climate action plan outlines how the ECB will contribute within its mandate.
19 August 2021
Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Our revised forward guidance is a fundamental step in fulfilling our commitment to 2% inflation, writes Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. He also discusses the three conditions that should be met before interest rates are raised.
27 July 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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If we make the recovery fund work and if we embed the lessons from the pandemic in the EMU governance framework, we can emerge from the crisis with a stronger economy and greater social and political cohesion, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta in The ECB Blog.
14 July 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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We have decided to launch a project to prepare for possibly issuing a digital euro. A digital euro will be successful if it adds value for people, merchants and financial intermediaries in the euro area, explains Executive Board member Fabio Panetta in The ECB Blog.
14 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 262
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Abstract
The global recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting deterioration in many countries’ public finances have increased the risk of sovereign debt crises. Although crisis prevention remains paramount, these developments have made it imperative to re-examine the adequacy of the current toolkit for crisis management and resolution, in a context where changes in the creditor base and in the composition of public debt instruments have brought about new challenges in terms of reduced transparency and additional barriers to achieving inter-creditor equity. This report focuses on the international architecture for sovereign debt restructurings (SODRs), as seen through the lenses of the International Monetary Fund (IMF or “the Fund”) and with a special attention to the role that the Fund can play in facilitating orderly restructuring processes. It provides a set of findings and recommendations in relation to certain key elements of the Fund’s lending framework that have important ramifications on SODR processes, namely debt sustainability assessments (DSAs), the exceptional access policy (EAP) for financing above normal access limits, and the criteria for lending to countries with payments arrears to private creditors (LIA) or official bilateral creditors (LIOA). It also considers other indirect channels through which the Fund can affect SODRs, including its support for enhancing the transparency and public disclosure of sovereign debt information, its collaboration with the Paris Club and the G20 debt-related initiatives, the promotion of contractual standards for sovereign debt, and the monitoring of relevant legislative developments.
JEL Code
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
13 September 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2588
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Abstract
In response to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, there has been a complementary approach to monetary and fiscal policy in the United States with the Federal Reserve System purchasing extraordinary quantities of securities and the government running a deficit of some 17% of projected GDP. The Federal Reserve pushed the discount rate close to zero and stabilised financial markets with emergency liquidity provided through a new open-ended long-term asset purchase programme. To capture the interventions, we develop a model in which the central bank uses reserves to buy much of the huge issuance of government bonds and this offsets the impact of shutdowns and lockdowns in the real economy. We show that these actions reduced lending costs and amplified the impact of supportive fiscal policies. We then run a counterfactual analysis which suggests that if the Federal Reserve had not intervened to such a degree, the economy may have experienced a significantly deeper contraction as a result from the Covid-19 pandemic.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
10 September 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 September 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2587
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Abstract
We analyse the implications of asymmetric monetary policy rules by estimating Markov-switching DSGE models for the euro area (EA) and the US. The estimations show that until mid-2014 the ECB’s response to inflation was more forceful when inflation was above 2% than below 2%. Since then, the ECB’s policy can be characterised as symmetric, and we quantify the macroeconomic implications of this policy change. We uncover asymmetries also in the Fed’s policy, which has responded more strongly in times of crisis. We compute an optimal simple rule for the EA and the US in an environment with the effective lower bound and a low neutral real rate, and find that it prescribes a stronger response to inflation and the output gap when inflation is below target compared to when it is above target. We document its stabilisation properties had this optimal rule been implemented over the last two decades.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 September 2021
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
Annexes
9 September 2021
MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
31 August 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 261
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Abstract
Asset encumbrance is a central concept in the context of banks’ liquidity crises, as it is associated with their capacity to obtain secured funding. This occasional paper summarises the work carried out by the task force on asset encumbrance, bringing together analyses by the ECB and those national competent authorities working on the topic. First, we describe how asset encumbrance has evolved in euro area banks, focusing on country and business model aggregates. Second, we conduct an econometric analysis of the driving factors of banks’ asset encumbrance, highlighting the relevance of credit risk, the availability of high quality collateral suitable for encumbrance, capital and sovereign funding conditions. Third, we turn our focus to the asset encumbrance dynamics of banks that have experienced a crisis. The outcome of this event study analysis indicates that asset encumbrance increases in the lead-up to a crisis, partly to offset early deposit outflows. Building on these findings, we show that asset encumbrance indicators carry predictive information for bank-specific crises as part of a multivariate early warning model.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C49 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Other
27 August 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2586
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Abstract
We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
25 August 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2585
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Abstract
Fed's monetary policy announcements convey a mix of news about different kinds of conventional and unconventional policies and about the economy. Financial market responses to these announcements are very leptokurtic: often tiny, but sometimes large. I estimate the underlying structural shocks exploiting this feature of the data. I find standard monetary policy, Odyssean forward guidance, large scale asset purchases and Delphic forward guidance, and estimate their effects.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
25 August 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 260
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Abstract
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) framework used to identify global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) is based on banks’ balance sheet information, leaving information derived from market data untapped. Among the most widely used market-based systemic risk measures, Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2016) Delta-Conditional Value at Risk (ΔCoVaR) best captures the system-wide loss-given-default (sLGD) and conditional impact concepts underlying the BCBS GSIB methodology. In this paper we investigate, using a global sample of the largest banks, whether a score based on ΔCoVaR could be useful for ranking G-SIBs or for calibrating an alternative G-SIB indicator weighting scheme. In our first analysis we find that the ΔCoVaR score is positively correlated with all five of the systemic importance categories of the BCBS framework. However, considerable information/noise with regard to the ΔCoVaR score remains unexplained. Before more is known about this residual, a score based on ΔCoVaR is difficult to interpret and is inappropriate for identifying G-SIBs in a policy context. Besides, we find that a ranking based on ΔCoVaR is subject to substantial variability over time and across empirical specifications. In our second analysis we use ΔCoVaR to place the current static weighting scheme for G-SIB indicators on an empirical footing. To do this we regress ΔCoVaR on factors derived from the G-SIB indicators. This approach allows us to focus on the part of ΔCoVaR which can be explained by balance sheet information which alleviates the identified issues of interpretability and variability. The derived weights are highest for the cross-jurisdictional activity (43%) and size (27%) categories. We conclude that ΔCoVaR is not suitable for use as an alternative G-SIB score but could be useful for policymakers to pursue an empirically grounded weighting scheme for the existing G-SIB indicators.
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
23 August 2021
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS

Interest rates

Marginal lending facility 0.25 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 0.00 %
Deposit facility − 0.50 %
18 September 2019 Past key ECB interest rates

Inflation rate

Inflation dashboard

Exchange rates

USD US dollar 1.1763
JPY Japanese yen 128.67
GBP Pound sterling 0.85025
CHF Swiss franc 1.0886
Last update: 16 September 2021 Euro foreign exchange rates