The nuts and bolts of interest rates
We have been raising interest rates to bring down inflation. How does that work? Are we already seeing the impact on prices? And is this the end of super-low rates? Host Katie Ranger puts these questions to Chief Economist Philip R. Lane in the second episode of The ECB Podcast’s Summer School.
The ECB Podcast Summer School #2
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Learn more- 10 August 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 8 August 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 8 August 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 8 August 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 August 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 2 August 2023
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 3 August 2023
- Speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bocconi University
- 27 July 2023
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 July 2023
- Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 9th ECB conference on central, eastern and south-eastern European countries
- 12 July 2023
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Panel Discussion on Banking Solvency and Monetary Policy, NBER Summer Institute 2023 Macro, Money and Financial Frictions Workshop
- 7 July 2023
- Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at King’s College London
- 30 July 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Anne Cheyvialle and Florentin Collomp on 28 July 2023
- 7 July 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Geneviève Van Lède on 5 July 2023
- 25 June 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez, John Müller and Daniel Caballero
- 8 June 2023
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 1 June 2023
- 7 June 2023
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Wouter Vervenne and Kris van Hamme on 31 May 2023
- 9 August 2023
- Words matter as much as actions for central banks. Because changes in tone can presage shifts in monetary policy. We have created an index to measure and compare the tone of policy communication by the ECB and the US Fed. This ECB Blog post talks you through the findings.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
- 2 August 2023
- Policymakers should focus on preserving bank resilience to strengthen macroprudential stability at a time of economic uncertainty. This would ensure that sufficient capital buffers are available should widespread losses arise, argues ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 July 2023
- After decades of being both hero and villain, globalisation is said to be on the retreat. There is a common perception that companies are diversifying supply chains and relocating business closer to home. So, are we heading towards deglobalisation? We dig deeper and find that the data tell a different story.Details
- JEL Code
- F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
- 5 July 2023
- Central banks need to look ahead to make good decisions. Since we lack a crystal ball, economic models are the best tool available. They provide a test environment to craft and think through different scenarios. This ECB Blog post provides an overview of why, and how, we do this.Details
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 28 June 2023
- Contribution by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President of the European CommissionEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +Details
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box reviews Eurosystem staff projections of public wages, focusing on their response to inflation. It concludes that, after experiencing a large cut in real terms in 2022, public wages are projected to grow cumulatively over the period 2023-25 at rates higher than inflation. It also shows that projections of public wages reflect substantial heterogeneity at country level. Projected nominal public wage growth is stronger in countries that have experienced high levels of inflation in the recent past, even in the absence of institutional arrangements for automatic price indexation of public wages, but is more restrained in countries with high levels of public debt.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box uses structural BVAR models applied to global macroeconomic data to provide evidence that monetary policy is transmitted more strongly to consumption in countries with higher shares of homeowners with mortgages, higher levels of household debt and higher shares of adjustable-rate mortgages, although the evidence for the latter is weaker. Since the previous hiking cycle, the shares of homeowners with mortgages and the levels of household debt have risen in the euro area, with countries increasingly resembling each other in this regard. This means that aggregate monetary policy transmission through the housing channel may, if anything, be stronger and more even across euro area countries in the current cycle than in past hiking cycles.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The non-financial corporate bond market in the euro area has grown substantially over the past decade. The expansion in the supply of bonds was met with broad-based demand from all investor groups and accompanied by only a limited increase in corporate bond spreads. To better understand private sector demand for corporate bonds and its role in the price effects of changes in supply, this box studies the demand elasticities of individual sectors and the distribution of corporate bond holdings across the private sector. The findings, which focus on a low-yield period, suggest that insurance corporations and pension funds (ICPFs) play a special role in the corporate bond investor base: unlike other private sector investors, ICPFs demand fewer corporate bonds when their spreads increase, thereby potentially amplifying the price effects of shifts in supply. As the market share of ICPFs has fallen and that of other private sector investors has increased, the upward pressure on corporate bond spreads from unexpected increases in their supply, under low market stress, is estimated to have decreased.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box introduces experimental and analytical indicators for assessing climate change, which encompass three main categories: sustainable finance, carbon emissions and physical risks. The data remain under development and are, at this juncture, subject to caveats. The new indicators are a step towards supplying policymakers with appropriate information for assessing the exposure of financial institutions to climate change-related developments. Close interaction with stakeholders is important to this work, and the ECB is actively seeking feedback on the indicators.
- JEL Code
- C8 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Evidence from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) shows that consumers’ expectations for interest rates on mortgages and savings accounts have increased, in line with actual interest rate developments. Since June 2022 an increasing share of respondents, particularly among those with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) which are generally more directly exposed to interest rate changes, has favoured lower interest rates. A growing share of households with an ARM also expects difficulties in meeting their mortgage payments in the near future and intends to refinance the mortgage contract. In line with their higher exposure to interest rate changes, spending expectations of respondents with an ARM are more sensitive to changes in expected interest rates. Overall, the results of the CES suggest that consumers have been progressively incorporating the impact of higher interest rates into their spending decisions.
- JEL Code
- E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 9 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article presents a model-based assessment of the short to medium-term economic impact of carbon pricing aimed at mitigating climate change. It addresses the high level of uncertainty in gauging the effects of carbon price increases by employing a suite of macroeconomic models. Under the main scenario, the loss in euro area annual GDP growth is contained and the inflation impact is modest, implying a limited output/inflation trade-off for monetary policy. The scenario supports the transition to a low-carbon economy, but the implied reduction in carbon emissions makes only a limited contribution to achieving the EU’s intermediate emission reduction target for 2030. Accordingly, reaching the EU’s climate goals will require a mixture of ambitious carbon pricing, additional regulatory action and technological innovation.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 8 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the factors determining household perceptions of the attractiveness of housing as an investment. It finds that these perceptions differ depending on the demographic and economic characteristics of households. Using a linear probability regression model, the box also shows that higher perceptions of housing as a good investment are associated with higher expectations for economic growth, personal income growth and house price growth, as well as lower expectations for inflation and mortgage rates. Combining the model estimates with the average expectations of households surveyed in the CES at each point in time, the box derives an expectations-based indicator of households’ perceptions of housing as a good investment. This indicator has declined significantly since June 2021, mainly driven by expectations of higher mortgage interest rates, reflecting the impact of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions in general.
- JEL Code
- R2 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis
R3 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
- 4 August 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 4 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2840Details
- Abstract
- We propose a Bayesian VAR model with stochastic volatility and time varying skewness to estimate the degree of labour at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment rate as a function of real activity and financial risk factors. We find that the conditional distribution of the changes in the unemployment rate displays time-varying volatility and skewness, with peaks coinciding with the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. We take advantage of the multivariate nature of our parametric model to measure stagflation risk defined as the possible joint event of large increases in the unemployment rate and large annual rates of inflation. We find an increasing risk of stagflation for the euro area in 2022 while in the United States stagflation risk increased earlier in 2021 and started decreasing more recently. Notwithstanding the significantly high levels of inflation, stagflation risks have been contained by the resilient performance of the labour market in both areas. The degree of labour at risk is therefore important for the assessment of the inflation-unemployment trade-off.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 4 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes some key measures of underlying inflation and reassesses their predictive power for euro area headline inflation over a medium-term horizon. It discusses recent developments in underlying inflation and implications for the inflation outlook. It examines how underlying inflation measures can be adjusted to filter out some of the recent extraordinary shocks to inflation. Lastly, it analyses goods and services inflation individually.
- JEL Code
- C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2839Details
- Abstract
- As countries and firms increasingly seek ways to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, this paper studies the global economic costs of a decoupling of global supply chains along geopolitical lines as well as in strategic sectors. We explore not only the long-run effects, but also the short-run costs stemming from rigid wages and low substitutability across factors of production and input goods. We find that, in terms of welfare losses, the costs of decoupling are roughly five times higher in the short-run compared to the long-run, while country losses are heterogeneous. A reshaping of global supply chains increases the level of consumer prices in most countries, as well as producer prices, especially for trade-intensive manufacturing sectors. Global supply chain decoupling entails also a reallocation of labour across skill levels. Finally, global trade would decrease substantially, driven by lower trade in intermediate inputs and a higher reliance of countries on domestic production.
- JEL Code
- F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 2 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2838Details
- Abstract
- We provide new evidence on how ECB’s monetary policy decisions affect firms’ bank loan expectations in the euro area. We use firm-level data derived from the ECB Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises for the period 2009 to 2022 and identify the impact of monetary policy by comparing the responses of firms interviewed shortly before and after monetary policy shocks. Our results are as follows. First, we find that firms’ bank loan expectations react to monetary policy, with a contractionary shock leading to a downward revision of expectations. Second, we show that firms’ response depends on the size and the sign of the shock, with only large and contractionary shocks having a significant negative effect on expectations. Third, we observe that the different components of central bank communication (i.e. the pure monetary policy shock and the central bank information shock) have different impacts on firms’ beliefs. Fourth, we find that conventional and unconventional QE shocks have opposite effects on expectations, with the impact of QE policies mainly being driven by the central bank information component of the related announcements. Finally, we document that the response to monetary policy differs along firms’ structural characteristics.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 2 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2837Details
- Abstract
- We empirically investigated the impact of regulatory risk retention methods on credit ratings and pricing at issuance using a sample of European securitization tranches issued in the period 2011-2021. European regulation is based on the assumption that all risk retention methods homogenously align incentives and interests between originators and investors. We investigated the impact of these methods on the pricing of securitization tranches and found that investors adjust the risk premium at issuance for tranches based on different risk retention methods. We also found that credit ratings (discrepancy) differed depending on the risk retention method used. Finally, we gained a deeper insight into the risk retention methods chosen over time and concluded that originators take deal complexity and capital relief characteristics into consideration when selecting a specific method.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 1 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2836Details
- Abstract
- We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform not only the tree-based techniques, but also more “traditional” linear and non-linear techniques (OLS, Markov-switching, quantile regression). They do so significantly and consistently across different horizons and real-time datasets. To further improve performances when forecasting with machine learning, we propose a flexible three-step approach composed of (step 1) pre-selection, (step 2) factor extraction and (step 3) machine learning regression. We find that both pre-selection and factor extraction significantly improve the accuracy of machine-learning-based predictions. This three-step approach also outperforms workhorse benchmarks, such as a PCA-OLS model, an elastic net, or a dynamic factor model. Finally, on top of high accuracy, the approach is flexible and can be extended seamlessly beyond world trade.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 1 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2835Details
- Abstract
- We develop a model to examine how discount rates affect the nature and composition of innovation within an industry. Challenging conventional wisdom, we show that higher discount rates do not discourage firm innovation when accounting for the industry equilibrium. Higher discount rates deter fresh entry—effectively acting as entry barriers—but encourage innovation through the intensive margin, which can lead to a higher industry innovation rate on net. Simultaneously, high discount rates foster explorative over exploitative innovation. The model rationalizes observed patterns of innovation cyclicality, and predicts that lower entry in downturns hedges innovating incumbents against higher discount rates.
- JEL Code
- G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
O31 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
- 31 July 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2834Details
- Abstract
- We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes, supporting state-dependent models. The faster pass-thorough of energy supply shocks to consumer prices (excl. energy) cushions the drop in output in the short term. Energy supply shocks have a stronger impact on output in the medium-term with manufacturing being more adversely affected than GDP. Large energy supply shocks shift the economy to another state but after two and half years the mean-reversion to lower inflation implies a more moderate transmission mechanism, highlighting the importance of state-dependent impulse responses. The energy supply shocks between July 2021 and June 2022 are massive amounting to 3.9 standard deviations on average each month.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 31 July 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2833Details
- Abstract
- We propose a novel empirical approach to inform monetary policymakers about the potential effects of policy action when facing trade-offs between financial and macroeconomic stability. We estimate a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) for the euro area covering the real economy, monetary policy and measures of ex ante and ex post systemic risk representing financial stability. Policy implications are derived from scenario analyses where the associated costs and benefits are functions of the projected paths of the potentially asymmetric distributions of inflation and economic growth, allowing us to take a risk management perspective. One exercise considers the intertemporal financial stability trade-off in the context of the global financial crisis, where we find ex post evidence in favour of monetary policy leaning against the financial cycle. Another exercise considers the short-term financial stability trade-off when deciding the appropriate speed of monetary policy tightening to combat inflationary pressures in a fragile financial environment.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 31 July 2023
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 28 July 2023
- MEP LETTER
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 4.50 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 4.25 % |
| Deposit facility | 3.75 % |
Inflation rate
Inflation dashboardExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1004 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 158.97 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86415 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9617 |