SPEECH
30 September 2022
Monetary policy in a cost-of-living crisis
Falling real wages will weigh on aggregate demand, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel at La Toja Forum. But today’s crisis is damaging potential output, and firms’ efforts to protect their profit margins imply that inflationary pressures may remain elevated.
Speech
SPEECH
29 September 2022
Policy mix of the future
Interaction between monetary, macroprudential and fiscal policies is essential for dealing with the current inflation shock, says Vice-President Luis de Guindos. Fiscal policy can contribute to the ECB’s main objective of keeping prices stable.
Speech
THE ECB BLOG
28 September 2022
How do markets respond to war and geopolitics?
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine marks a sharp rise in geopolitical risk for Europe. The latest ECB Blog post looks at how global stock markets have reacted to this, depending on their distance from Kyiv and the developments following the invasion.
Blog post- 4 October 2022
- EURO MONEY MARKET STATISTICS
- 4 October 2022
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 27 September 2022
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 27 September 2022
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 27 September 2022
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 27 September 2022
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 23 September 2022
- OTHER GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 30 September 2022
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on the “Fight against inflation” at the IV Edition Foro La Toja
- 29 September 2022
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at De Nederlandsche Bank/Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum conference on “Moving beyond climate: integrating biodiversity into financial markets” at Artis Zoo in Amsterdam
- 29 September 2022
- Luis de Guindos: Policy mix of the future: the role of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policiesRemarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at a panel at the conference “Future of Central Banking” organised by Lietuvos bankas and the Bank for International Settlements
- 29 September 2022
- Introductory statement by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
- 28 September 2022
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament conference on “Greening monetary policy in times of soaring inflation”
- 27 September 2022
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by András Szigetvari on 20 September 2022
- 22 September 2022
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Florian Schmidt on 15 September 2022
- 16 September 2022
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by João Silvestre on 9 September
- 25 August 2022
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Morgane Miel on 13 July 2022 and published on 25 August 2022
- 18 August 2022
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Frank Siebelt on 16 August 2022
- 28 September 2022
- Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine marks the return of geopolitical risk to Europe. Here the ECB blog looks at how global stock markets reacted to this risk and what role time and distance have played.Details
- JEL Code
- D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 14 September 2022
- Women and men shop differently and have different perceptions of prices and inflation. This ECB Blog post examines how inflation expectations are formed and revised across gender and why that matters for central banks.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
- 24 August 2022
- Communication with the general public matters for monetary policy. Although it is hard for central banks to reach out to the wider public, a recent study shows that explaining the inflation target and the ECB strategy to consumers can enhance its credibility.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 10 August 2022
- As part of our monetary policy strategy review we adopted a new symmetric 2% inflation target. One year on, we examine how the strategy review has helped anchor financial analysts’ inflation expectations. We also show that recent policy normalisation is grounded in our strategy.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
e31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 28 July 2022
- Non-immigrants in the euro area are on average better off than immigrants in terms of wages and wealth. These differences can cause immigrants to react differently to economic shocks and changing financial conditions. As economic inequality matters for monetary policy transmission, the ECB Blog takes a closer look.
- 29 September 2022
- MEP LETTERRelated
- 29 September 2022
- SPEECH
- 29 September 2022
- DIGITAL EURO DOCUMENTS
- 28 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2736Details
- Abstract
- We study interest rates transmission to savings at low and negative rates. Exploiting cohorts of consumers from a data-rich multi-country survey, we show how the strength of interest rate transmission to savings varies with the level of nominal interest rates. This response is positive when interest rates are high but declines steadily at lower levels. At very low levels, there is evidence that the savings response may even reverse sign. Such a “savings’ reversal” is consistent with the behavioural evidence on money illusion as well as with a negative signalling effect from policy announcements in a liquidity trap and may weaken the direct stimulatory effects from very low and negative rates. Consistent with this, the reversal appears to be causally related to central bank information shocks and concentrated among older consumers and consumers with lower educational attainment.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 28 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2735Details
- Abstract
- Digitalisation may be viewed as a sequence of supply and technology shocks affecting the economy through productivity and output, employment and labour markets, competition and market structure. This paper focuses on the effects of digitalisation on economic growth, and how those effects may be impacted by institutions and governance. It discusses a number of theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence for different sets of European and other countries. The results suggest that better institutions and governance tend to be associated with greater growth-enhancing effects from digital technologies.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
- 28 September 2022
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 99Details
- Abstract
- While there is broad consensus that carbon pricing is an effective instrument for combatting climate change, the potential contribution of central banks is still debated. Central banks around the world have adopted different strategies to consider climate change in their monetary policy frameworks. This article focuses on green quantitative easing (QE). Compared with a carbon tax, we find that green QE would contribute only moderately to reducing global temperatures, while partially crowding out green private investment. However, green QE could serve as a complementary instrument, especially if governments fail to coordinate on introducing a sufficiently ambitious carbon tax on the global scale.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 27 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2734Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendumDetails
- Abstract
- We study euro area investors' portfolio adjustment since the Brexit referendum in terms of securities issued in the UK or denominated in pound sterling, in the context of heightened policy uncertainty surrounding the exit process of the UK from the EU. Our sector-level analysis "looks-through" holdings of investment fund shares to gauge euro area sectors' full exposures to debt securities and listed shares. Our key finding is the absence of a negative "Brexit-effect" for euro area investors, which would have rendered UK-issued and pound-denominated securities generally less attractive. Instead, we observe that euro area investors increased their absolute and relative exposures to UK-issued and pound-denominated debt securities since the Brexit referendum. The analysis also reveals an increase in the euro area's exposure to listed shares issued by UK non-financial corporations, while the exposures to shares issued by UK banks declined. These findings should be seen against the backdrop of low yields on euro area debt securities and a strong recovery in UK share prices since the Brexit referendum, which appear to have largely outweighed the uncertainties associated with Brexit.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 27 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2733Details
- Abstract
- How do households adjust to a large debt shock? This paper studies household responses to a revaluation of foreign currency household debt during a large depreciation in Hungary. Relative to similar local currency debtors, foreign currency debtors reduce consumption expenditures approximately one-for-one with increased debt service, suggesting binding liquidity constraints. Foreign currency debtors reduce both the quantity and quality of expenditures, consistent with nonhomothetic preferences and a “flight from quality.” Debt revaluation has no effect on labor market status, hours, or earnings, but there is a small adjustment toward foreign income streams and a substantial increase in home production.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
J20 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→General
- 26 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2732Details
- Abstract
- We study how banks manage their liquidity among the various assets at their disposal. We exploit the introduction of the ECB’s two-tier system which heterogeneously reduced the cost of additional reserves holdings. We find that the treated banks increase reserve holdings by borrowing on the interbank market, decreasing lending to affiliates of the same group, and selling marketable securities. We also find that banks have a preference for a stable portfolio composition of liquid assets over time. Our results imply that frictions in one market for liquidity can spill over to several markets.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 26 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2731Details
- Abstract
- We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of profitable carry trade strategies, i.e. the common practice of borrowing in low-yield currencies and investing in high-yield currencies. Third, the predictive power of equilibrium exchange rates may boost the performance of carry trade strategies.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 23 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2730Details
- Abstract
- We propose a new and time-varying optimum currency area (OCA) index for the euro area in assessing the evolution of the OCA properties of the monetary union from an international business cycle perspective. It is derived from the relative importance of symmetric vs. asymmetric shocks that result from a sign and zero restricted open-economy structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. We argue that the euro area is more appropriate through the lens of empirical OCA properties when the relative importance of common symmetric shocks is high, but, at the same time, is not overly dispersed across euro area member countries. We find that symmetric shocks have been the dominant drivers of business cycles across euro area countries. Our OCA index, nevertheless, shows that cyclical convergence among euro area members is not a steady process as it tends to be disrupted by crises, especially those not primarily triggered by common external shocks. In the aftermath of a crisis the OCA index embarks on a recovery trajectory catching up with its pre-crisis level. Our OCA index is slow-moving and a good reflection of changing underlying economic structures across the euro area and, therefore, informative about the ability of monetary policy to stabilise the euro area economy in the medium run.
- JEL Code
- F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 23 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2729Details
- Abstract
- Payments are a key focus of central banks, as - together with the safe, efficient operation of the payments market – wide access to cash is fundamentally important for a healthy economy. In this study, three main research areas were investigated: 1. socioeconomic characteristics that can be associated with financial inclusion; 2. factors behind consumers´ payment choices; 3. underlying factors for holding cash in a wallet (i.e. for transactional purposes). Regression results for the first research question confirmed the findings of international literature, i.e. mainly older age, lower income and lower educational level is associated with the lack of access to electronic payment options. The study pursues various approaches to investigate consumer payments choices, and the results from most models showed that those with higher level of income and education, or lower level of cash income are more likely to prefer and actually use electronic payment methods. Finally, concerning the holding of cash the initial expectations were confirmed i.e. those who do not use cash for daily transactions tend to keep less cash in their wallet, while those who indicated preference for cash payments or higher importance of cash payment option are more likely to keep higher cash amounts.
- JEL Code
- D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
J33 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Compensation Packages, Payment Methods
- 22 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2728Details
- Abstract
- The green bond market has increased rapidly in recent years amid growing concerns about climate change and wider environmental issues. However, whether green bonds provide cheaper funding to issuers by trading at a premium, so-called greenium, is still an open discussion. This paper provides evidence that a key factor explaining the greenium is the credibility of a green bond itself or that of its issuer. We define credible green bonds as those which have been under external review. Credible issuers are either firms in green sectors or banks signed up to UNEP FI. Another important factor is investors’ demand as the greenium becomes more statistically and economically significant over time. This is potentially driven by increased climate concerns as the green bond market follows a similar trend to that observed in ESG/green equity and investment fund sectors. To run our analysis, we construct a database of daily pricing data on closely matched green and non-green bonds of the same issuer in the euro area from 2016 to 2021. We then use Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) to analyse investors’ demand for green bonds.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
A56 : General Economics and Teaching
- 22 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2727Details
- Abstract
- What are the economic implications of financial and uncertainty shocks? We show that financial shocks cause a decline in output and goods prices, while uncertainty shocks cause a decline in output and an increase in goods prices. In response to un-certainty shocks, firms increase their markups, in line with the theory of self-insurance against being stuck with too low a price. This explains why goods prices may increase at the onset of a recession and are not accompanied by pronounced deflationary pressures. The two shocks are identified jointly with an approach that is less restrictive than Antolín-Díaz and Rubio-Ramírez’s method.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- In-house credit assessment systems (ICASs) of euro area national central banks are an important source of credit risk assessments for credit claims from non-financial corporates. These credit claims can be pledged as collateral in monetary policy operations. Climate change and the transition to a greener economy can affect the growth, financial performance, market position and business model of a company, and hence its creditworthiness. Therefore, as part of the ECB’s action plan for including climate change considerations in monetary policy implementation, the Governing Council has agreed a set of common minimum standards on incorporating these risks in ICAS rating processes. Assessments of climate change risks will mainly focus on the companies most affected and those which pose the highest risk to the Eurosystem. The analysis will be performed at firm level whenever sufficient data is available, using state-of-the-art methods and metrics. All ICASs will comply with the common minimum standards from end-2024 onwards.
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2022 from 20 April to 26 July.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 22 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Employment growth in the public sector has played an important role in supporting total employment during the pandemic. Following the small decline in public sector employment and the trough in economic activity in the second quarter of 2020, public sector employment has contributed about 1 percentage point (1.5 million persons) to the cumulative total employment growth of about 4.2% (6.6 million persons). Most of the employment growth in the public sector is associated with the health and education sub-sectors. In both of these sub-sectors, activity has not only increased during the pandemic but has also shown a positive trend over time. Specifically, unlike during previous euro area crises, temporary employment in the public sector has risen during the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis and remains above its underlying trend by about 300,000 persons (0.2% of the euro area labour force). This increase in temporary public sector employment is itself driven mostly by the education and health sub-sectors and is probably due in particular to the health measures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. As the impact of the pandemic recedes, this increase could be partly reversed.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 21 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2726Details
- Abstract
- We analyse a gradual increase in the tax on emissions in a simple two-period New Keynesian model with an AS-AD representation. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: we show that the second effect is larger. However, if households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect of the transition may be inflationary in the first period. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show the transition may initially be inflationary.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 21 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2725Details
- Abstract
- One important source of systemic risk can arise from asset commonality among financial institutions. This indirect interconnection may occur when financial institutions invest in similar or correlated assets and is also described as overlapping portfolios. In this work, we propose a methodology to quantify systemic risk derived from asset commonality and we apply it to assess the degree of indirect interconnection of banks due to their financial holdings. Based on granular information of asset holdings of European significant banks, we compute the sensitivity based ∆ CoVaR which captures the potential sources of systemic risk originating from asset commonality. The novel indicator proves to be consistent with other indicators of systemic importance, yet it has a more transparent foundation in terms of the source of systemic risk, which can contribute to effective macroprudential supervision.
- JEL Code
- C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 21 September 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Mitigating climate change requires sustained and multipronged policy efforts, as a matter of urgency. Many initiatives to mitigate climate change are directly linked to fiscal policy, mainly through public spending or taxation. This article provides an overview of existing, required and expected fiscal climate policy efforts to advance the green transition in the euro area, focusing on carbon pricing and green public investment. It also looks at the distributional consequences of carbon pricing.
- JEL Code
- H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 20 September 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2724Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies for the first time the links between interbank liability and equity markets (financial exposure), and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the European banking sector, both at the micro and macro level. Using a binary logit model, the paper first examines – at the micro level – how financial exposures between banks affect the probability of M&A. It finds that financial interlinkages significantly increase the chances of them taking place. Using a gravity model, the paper then investigates – at the macro level – whether the micro results hold. Not only do financial links are positively and significantly correlated with the number of M&As between countries, but they are also a better predictor than trade – traditionally used in the macro literature on M&A. Since the Capital Market Union would help to geographically diversify banks’ portfolio, it would therefore also foster cross-border M&As. Finally, the paper builds a M&A compatibility index for each pair of EU countries. The study highlights strong M&As prospects linked to high financial interlinkages in core Europe, which could be the sign of a future asymmetrical financial integration in the EU.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 1.50 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 1.25 % |
| Deposit facility | 0.75 % |
Inflation rate
Inflation dashboardExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 0.9891 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 143.30 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87273 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9767 |
Financial stability
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