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ACCOUNTABILITY

We stand with Ukraine

We stand with Ukraine today and every day, as we mark two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

ACCOUNTABILITY 23 February 2024

President visits the European Parliament

President Christine Lagarde will appear this Monday, 26 February at the European Parliament. She will speak during the plenary debate on the ECB’s Annual Report for 2022.

Live webcast
PUBLICATION 22 February 2024

ECB Annual Accounts 2023

In 2023 the size of our balance sheet decreased to €674 billion. Following a long period of profits, we had a €1.3 billion loss. This resulted from interest rate rises to combat inflation and shows our commitment to our price stability mandate, even if it affects our results.

Report
THE ECB BLOG 22 February 2024

The problem with Bitcoin

Bitcoin has failed to become a global decentralised digital currency, instead falling victim to fraud and manipulation. The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow and inconvenient, argues The ECB Blog.

Read The ECB Blog
23 February 2024
GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONS
23 February 2024
PRESS RELEASE
22 February 2024
MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
22 February 2024
PRESS RELEASE
20 February 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
20 February 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
23 February 2024
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Lecture on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability conference organised by Bocconi University in Milan
16 February 2024
Inaugural lecture of the EMU Lab by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European University Institute
Annexes
16 February 2024
15 February 2024
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an online seminar on “Monetary Policy and Banks' Business Strategies”, organised by the Florence School of Banking and Finance as part of the Bank Board Academy
15 February 2024
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
14 February 2024
Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEO Summit organised by EuroCommerce in Brussels
7 February 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 2 February 2024
3 February 2024
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Jonathan Witteman on 29 January 2024
English
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31 January 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kolja Rudzio
English
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22 January 2024
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, French and German members of parliament and other personalities, published on n-tv.de
English
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13 January 2024
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Federico Fubini
English
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22 February 2024
Bitcoin has failed on the promise to be a global decentralised digital currency. Instead it is used for illicit transactions. The latest approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not suitable as means of payment or as an investment.
Details
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
19 February 2024
Many banks worry their customers might withdraw deposits to hold digital euro instead. These fears are misplaced: a digital euro will be designed as a means of payment and not for investment, argue ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf.
Details
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
13 February 2024
When reading data on reinvestments under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) one needs to understand how we implement purchases. Director General Market Operations Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel explain how to avoid pitfalls.
Annexes
13 February 2024
8 February 2024
The Eurosystem has accepted Scope as a new rating agency alongside Fitch, Moody's, S&P and DBRS. This has a number of implications, including a wider range of credit opinions and expertise being considered for monetary policy purposes. The ECB Blog explains.
Details
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 January 2024
The ECB can lend euro to non-euro area central banks to reduce the risk of financial stress spilling over to the euro area. Piero Cipollone, Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel explain how we have made such liquidity lines more effective and agile.
23 February 2024
LEGAL ACT
23 February 2024
LEGAL ACT
23 February 2024
LEGAL ACT
23 February 2024
LEGAL ACT
22 February 2024
FAQ
22 February 2024
ANNUAL CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET OF THE EUROSYSTEM
22 February 2024
ANNUAL ACCOUNTS
21 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2912
Details
Abstract
When capital in the banking system becomes depleted, the degree to which financial intermediation and the macroeconomy are adversely affected is likely to depend on the financial and macroeconomic environment. However, existing studies either assume that the effects of bank capital shocks are linear or ignore feedback effects and the impact on the macroeconomy. Using data on the largest euro area countries and Bayesian Panel Threshold VARs, we investigate the importance of different factors in amplifying shocks in banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion. Our results demonstrate that nonlinearities matter. When the banking sector is already vulnerable to large capital losses, it is more difficult for banks to accommodate a depletion in capital and lending and economic activity contract more severely. Similarly, low interest rates, which are typically associated with low bank margins and profitability, also lead to a larger decline in lending. De-risking is also more pronounced in these cases. The state of the business cycle, though, does not influence the propagation of shocks to the same extent. We conclude that financial factors play a larger role than the macroeconomic environment in heightening shocks to banks’ vulnerability to capital depletion.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
21 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2911
Details
Abstract
We propose a novel methodology for solving Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) models with aggregate uncertainty and the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Our efficient solution strategy combines the sequence-state Jacobian methodology in Auclert et al. (2021) with a tractable structure for aggregate uncertainty by means of a two-regimes shock structure. We apply the method to a simple HANK model to show that: 1) in the presence of aggregate non-linearities such as the ZLB, a dichotomy emerges between the aggregate impulse responses under aggregate uncertainty against the deterministic case; 2) aggregate uncertainty amplifies downturns at the ZLB, and household heterogeneity increases the strength of this amplification; 3) the effects of forward guidance are stronger when there is aggregate uncertainty.
JEL Code
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
20 February 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 116
Details
Abstract
The 2021-22 surprise inflation surge had a major impact on households in the euro area. It reduced the real incomes and net wealth of most households as there was no immediate increase in nominal wages and pensions, nominal house prices and the nominal value of bonds, deposits, cash and debt following the rise in the price level. This influenced households’ present and future consumption and therefore their welfare. Although poorer households suffered most from the reduction in the purchasing power of their income, overall welfare losses were especially large for retirees because of the fall in the real value of their relatively large holdings of nominal assets. Conversely, younger and heavily indebted households benefited from the reduction in the real value of their liabilities. In this sense, this inflation episode mimicked an age-dependent tax. Indeed, not everyone was a net loser: while about 70% of households suffered a loss, the rest enjoyed moderate gains.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
19 February 2024
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
16 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2910
Details
Abstract
Climate-related risks are due to increase in coming years and can pose serious threats to financial stability. This paper, by means of a DSGE model including heterogeneous firms and banks, financial frictions and prudential regulation, first shows the need of climate-related capital requirements in the existing prudential framework. Indeed, we find that without specific climate prudential policies, transition risk can generate excessive risk-taking by banks, which in turn increases the volatility of lending and output. We further show that relying on microprudential regulation alone would not be enough to account for the systemic dimension of transition risk. Implementing macroprudential policies in addition to microprudential regulation, leads to a Pareto improvement.
JEL Code
D58 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
15 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2909
Details
Abstract
This paper studies how mortgage borrowers and house prices react to a tightening of mortgage limits following a policy change in Ireland in 2015. The policy introduced limits to the loan-to-income and loan-to-value ratios of new mortgages issued. In response to a tightening borrowing constraint, borrowers can choose to purchase a cheaper house or to reduce the leverage (LTV) of the mortgage. Using a difference-in-difference methodology, I find that groups of (poorer) borrowers, who were more likely to be above the loan-to-income threshold before the policy, responded primarily by buying cheaper houses after the policy change. On the other hand, groups of (richer) borrowers, who were more likely to be above the loan-to-value threshold, responded primarily by reducing the LTV of the mortgage. Borrowers who purchase cheaper houses could be buying smaller houses or the same size houses at a lower equilibrium price. To test for changes in equilibrium prices, I compare prices across postcodes and find that houses prices fell after the policy change in postcodes where a higher fraction of borrowers were above the loan-to-income threshold before the policy.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
Network
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
14 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2908
Details
Abstract
We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as well as core inflation risk premia, at daily frequency, whereas core inflation expectations from surveys or macroeconomic projections are typically only available monthly or quarterly. We find that core inflation-linked swap rates are generally less volatile than headline inflation linked swap rates and that market participants expected core inflation to be substantially more persistent than headline inflation following the 2022 energy price spike. Using an event-study methodology, we also find that monetary policy shocks significantly lower core inflation expectations.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
13 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2907
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Abstract
We develop a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to study the transition from a steady-state without CBDC to one in which the home country issues a CBDC. The CBDC provides households with a liquid, convenient and storage-cost free means of payments which reduces the market power of banks on deposits. In the steady-state CBDC unambiguously improves welfare without disintermediating the banking sector. But macroeconomic volatility in the transition period to the new steady-state increases for plausible values of the latter. Demand for CBDC and money overshoot, thereby crowding out bank deposits and leading to initial declines in investment, consumption and output. We use non-linear solution methods with occasionally binding constraints to explore how alternative policies reduce volatility in the transition, contrasting the effects of restrictions on non-residents, binding caps, tiered remuneration and central bank asset purchases. Binding caps reduce disintermediation and output losses in the transition most effectively, with an optimal level of around 40% of steady-state CBDC demand.
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
12 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2906
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Abstract
This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population. I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce. Using highly disaggregated administrative data from Germany, I find that firms have more labor market power over older workers: The labor supply elasticity decreases from more than 2 to 1 from age 20 to 64. Calibrating the model with the reduced-form elasticity estimates, I find that differences in labor supply elasticities across age groups can explain 4% of the urban wage premium and 2% of the spatial concentration of population. Demographics and skill together account for 10% of the urban wage premium and 2% of agglomeration.
JEL Code
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J42 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→Monopsony, Segmented Labor Markets
R23 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics
12 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2905
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Abstract
This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The pass-through is stronger and more persistent when gas prices are driven by aggregate demand or supply pressures, while inventory shocks have a weaker impact. Supply shocks, moreover, are found to pass through to all components of euro area inflation – producer prices, wages and core inflation, which has implications for monetary policy. We finally document how the response of gas prices to shocks is non-linear and is significantly magnified in periods of low unemployment.
JEL Code
C50 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→General
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
12 February 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
8 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2904
Details
Abstract
We study the redistributive effects of surprise inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households view nominal debt more positively and increase estimates of their own real net wealth. These changes causally affect actual consumption and hypothetical debt decisions. Our findings suggest that real wealth mediates the sensitivity of consumption to inflation once households are aware of the wealth effects of inflation
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
Network
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
8 February 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2903
Details
Abstract
Policymakers around the world are encouraging the local production of key inputs to reduce risks from excessive dependencies on foreign suppliers. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of supply chain reorientation through localisation policies, using a global dynamic general equilibrium model. We proxy non-tariff measures, such as the stricter enforcement of regulatory standards, which reduce import quantity but do not directly alter costs and prices. These measures have, so far, been a key component of attempts to reshore production and are an increasingly popular trade policy instrument in general. Focusing on the euro area, we find that localisation policies are inflationary, imply transition costs and generally have a negative long-run effect on aggregate domestic output. The size (and sign) of the impact depends on whether these policies are implemented unilaterally or induce a retaliation from trade partners, and the extent to which they reduce domestic competition and productivity. We provide some recommendations for policymakers considering implementing a localisation agenda.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts

Interest rates

Marginal lending facility 4.75 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 4.50 %
Deposit facility 4.00 %
20 September 2023 Past key ECB interest rates

Inflation rate

Inflation dashboard

Exchange rates

USD US dollar 1.0834
JPY Japanese yen 162.91
GBP Pound sterling 0.85340
CHF Swiss franc 0.9522
Last update: 23 February 2024 Euro foreign exchange rates