INTERVIEW
16 June 2025
Staying the course through uncertainty
We will stay data-dependent amid exceptional uncertainty, Vice-President de Guindos tells Reuters. Trade tensions continue to influence our projections and policy decisions, and their outcome will shape the path ahead for inflation and growth.
Read the Vice-President’s interview
SPEECH
11 June 2025
The euro area bond market
Chief Economist Philip R. Lane outlines the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision, current features of the euro area bond market and some innovations that could expand the scope for euro-denominated bonds to serve as safe assets
Read his speech
PUBLICATION
11 June 2025
The international role of the euro
The euro remains the world’s second most important currency, our latest report finds. To create conditions that foster its role, it is crucial to advance on the savings and investment union, digital euro and cross-border payments, while continuing to uphold the rule of law.
Read the full publication- 17 June 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 17 June 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 17 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 12 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 12 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 25 June 2024
- PAGEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 11 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
- 16 June 2025
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030
- 12 June 2025
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the 24th Annual International Conference on Policy Challenges for the Financial Sector
- 12 June 2025
- Keynote speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank on European financial integration
- 12 June 2025
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium
- 11 June 2025
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Government Borrowers Forum 2025
- 16 June 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi and Francesco Cánepa on 12 June 2025
- 14 June 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Su Liang on 12 June 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 20 May 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Leonidas Stergiou on 21 May 2025
- 18 May 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl on 8 May 2025
- 17 June 2025
- For the euro to reach its full potential, Europe must strengthen three foundational pillars: geopolitical credibility, economic resilience and legal and institutional integrity.
- 10 June 2025
- Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty are injecting unpredictability into global financial markets. What seems like rock-solid market sentiment today can turn into jitters tomorrow. In this ECB Blog, we present a new risk appetite indicator to systematically track such shifts in market sentiment.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 28 May 2025
- Despite recent ECB rate cuts, the average interest rate on mortgages is expected to increase further. This is because of lagged effects from the latest hiking cycle. The ECB blog shows that the resulting drag on consumption could last at least until 2030.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 May 2025
- The degradation of natural ecosystems slows growth and leads to financial instability. Water scarcity, natural flood protection and water quality are most critical. Surface water scarcity alone puts almost 15% of the euro area’s economic output at risk.Details
- JEL Code
- Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 8 May 2025
- Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. This ECB blog analyses the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers.Details
- JEL Code
- J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
- 17 June 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box explores whether the effect of tightening financial conditions on US economic growth varies depending on the level of equity valuations. Financial conditions indices (FCIs) offer a consolidated measure of the costs of financing for households, firms and governments and typically incorporate interest rates, equity prices, corporate bond spreads and exchange rates. Using an exemplary FCI, we find that equity prices significantly influence US financial conditions when equity markets are overvalued. That, however, is shown to weaken their economic growth signal. This finding suggests that policymakers and analysts should remain attentive to the role of individual FCI components, especially during periods of atypical valuations.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 16 June 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box explores the factors shaping the euro area inflation expectations of firms in the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE). It finds that the short-term inflation expectations of firms are more volatile and closely tied to current inflation trends compared with their medium-term and long-term expectations. The determinants of these expectations considered in the analysis include the individual characteristics of firms, the sectors these operate in, their country of operation, their anticipated business decisions and euro area inflation. Among these factors, individual characteristics emerge as the primary driver of cross-section variation in inflation expectations of firms, followed by country-specific factors. At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding firms’ five-year inflation expectations is mainly influenced by the country in which they operate.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 16 June 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box explores the relationship between financial market volatility and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Historically, financial market volatility and news-based measures of EPU have displayed close co-movement, albeit diverging at times and across countries. More recently, the rise in euro area EPU has reflected an intensification of an upward trend observed over a number of years, largely driven by developments in Germany. Focusing on Germany and using a large language model, a topic-based analysis of newspaper articles identifies domestic and global uncertainties as being behind the recent surge in EPU. Moreover, in line with empirical findings for the United States, a regression analysis shows that a disconnect between financial market volatility and EPU is more likely when equity market momentum is strong, while co-movement is more likely when that momentum is weak. This interpretation is consistent with developments following the US tariff announcement on 2 April, when the spike in financial market volatility aligned with persistently high EPU levels on the back of a significant sell-off in equity markets.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 12 June 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3062Details
- Abstract
- Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach – disaggregating energy into subcomponents, such as fuels, gas, and electricity. The suite incorporates key features for energy prices: stochastic volatility, outlier correction, high-frequency indicators, and pre-tax price modelling. These characteristics enhance both in-sample explanatory power and forecast accuracy. Compared to standard benchmarks and official projections, our BVARs achieve better forecasting performance, particularly beyond the very short term. The suite also captures a sizable variation in the impact of commodity price shocks, pointing to higher elasticities at higher levels of commodity prices. Beyond forecasting, our framework is also useful for scenario and sensitivity analysis as an effective tool to gauge risks, which is especially relevant amid ongoing energy market transformations.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 12 June 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 12 June 2025
- CLIMATE-RELATED FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES
- 12 June 2025
- CLIMATE-RELATED FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES
- 11 June 2025
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 11 June 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3061Details
- Abstract
- We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets. We propose a simple yet intuitive framework to calibrate the CCyB through the cycle, including the socalled "positive neutral" rate. The model suggests a target positive neutral rate for the euro area ranging from 1.1% to 1.8%. Furthermore, the calibrated CCyB rates are consistent with the evolution of domestic cyclical systemic risks in the countries considered. The results further show that the adoption of a positive neutral CCyB approach allows for an earlier and more gradual build-up of the buffer, but does not lead to higher CCyB requirements at the peak of the cycle. Importantly, a positive neutral CCyB strategy would have implied that most euro area countries would have had a positive CCyB in place at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 11 June 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3060Details
- Abstract
- This study examines how dismantling Mafia-connected firms affects banks’ lending practices. Using a unique dataset of 667 such firms and loan-level data from the European Central Bank, our analysis shows that anti-Mafia operations precede an increase in bank loans to businesses that operate in areas that are directly affected by these actions. Specifically, overall loan volumes increase by approximately 0.8 percent, which translates to an increase of €1.38 billion in bank loans to these firms. The effect increases to 1.2 percent in areas that have experienced extensive Mafia activities, amounting to €2.76 billion in bank loans, and to 2.1 percent in areas that were once dominated by Mafia-connected firms that were engaged in rent extraction, amounting to €3.62 billion in bank loans. Borrowing costs rise concurrently, driven by heightened perceptions of risk following exposure of Mafia infiltration. Cross-sectional analyses indicate that banks’ responses vary significantly because non-local and foreign banks and banks with no prior exposure to Mafia-affiliated firms face increased challenges related to their lack of local knowledge. Removal of Mafia-connected firms also correlates with improved productivity in affected municipalities, underscoring financial institutions’ dynamic responses to the eradication of organized crime and the potential for economic revitalization in post-Mafia environments.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2025Details
- Abstract
- This special feature uses new data collected by ECB and IMF staff from over 120 countries to examine trends in global trade invoicing currency patterns up to 2023. The analysis reveals several key insights: the US dollar and the euro remain the most prominent primary invoicing currencies, together accounting for over 80% of global trade invoicing. While the US dollar serves as a global vehicle currency, the euro's role as a vehicle currency is particularly significant in Europe and parts of Africa. Despite some growth, the renminbi's share in global trade invoicing remains very low, at less than 2%, although it is increasing in the Asia-Pacific region and in some parts of Europe. Finally, this special feature presents some evidence of a relationship between shifts in invoicing currency patterns and geopolitical alignment, especially since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This evidence is most marked for certain countries which have distanced themselves geopolitically from the West, such as Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where the share of exports invoiced in the US dollars and euro was 10-50 percentage points lower in 2023 than in 2015-19.
- JEL Code
- F14, F31, F44 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2025Details
- Abstract
- This special feature uses granular data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics (SHS) to investigate whether foreign holdings of euro area securities react to geopolitics. Where similar information is available from the US Treasury, a comparison is made with respect to foreign holdings of US Treasury securities. The analysis reveals several key insights. First, foreign investors hold almost a quarter of both euro area and US government debt. While these total foreign holdings are concentrated in countries geopolitically aligned with the West, foreign official sector holdings of euro area government debt are mainly held by non-aligned countries. Second, official foreign investors’ holdings of euro area government debt have remained generally resilient since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decline in holdings of countries (excluding Russia) that are not geopolitically aligned with the West, which have dropped by 5% relative to pre-invasion levels, has so far been contained, highlighting the importance of upholding the rule of law. Econometric estimates suggest that geopolitical non-alignment explains at least part of this decline. These patterns still hold, even after correcting for geographic biases in international financial statistics to the extent possible. As the decline is small, the impact on euro area bond yields has been very limited thus far.
- JEL Code
- F30, F60 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2025Details
- Abstract
- Payments play a critical role in the global economy, with cross-border transactions largely processed through correspondent banking networks, which are often slow and costly. Fast payment systems (FPS) have emerged to address these inefficiencies, settling transactions in seconds. However, global FPS connections remain fragmented, concentrated in regional clusters, with limited interoperability due to economic, technical, and geopolitical barriers. Geopolitical tensions significantly impact the likelihood of interlinking FPS, potentially reducing connections and increasing trade costs. To mitigate fragmentation risks, initiatives like the G20 roadmap and the ECB's exploration of interlinking TIPS with other FPS aim to enhance the global payment infrastructure.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2025Details
- Abstract
- The Box examines the borrowing behaviour of US firms that issue euro-denominated bonds, commonly referred to as "Reverse Yankees," and explores the factors influencing their choice of issuance currency, including the risk-free rate differentials between the US and euro area, credit spreads, and the cost of hedging foreign exchange risk. Empirical evidence suggests that both declining hedged and unhedged borrowing costs in euro provide an incentive for US firms to issue more Reverse Yankee bonds. Changes in expected borrowing costs play an important role for the euro’s appeal as an international funding currency.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2025Details
- Abstract
- The box examines gold demand by the official sector and its relationship to geopolitics. In 2024, gold prices reached historical highs while central banks accounted for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, in contrast to around one-tenth in the 2010s. Empirical evidence suggests that both diversification and geopolitical hedging purposes drive central banks’ demand for gold.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EUROAnnexes
- 11 June 2025
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO
Related- 11 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 10 June 2025
- EURO AREA QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS - QUALITY REPORT
- 10 June 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 5 June 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 5 June 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 4 June 2025
- CONVERGENCE REPORTAnnexes
- 4 June 2025
- CONVERGENCE REPORT
Interest rates
| Deposit facility | 2.00 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2.15 % |
| Marginal lending facility | 2.40 % |
Inflation rate
More on inflationExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.1568 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 167.35 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85250 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9406 |
Financial stability
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