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Gwenaël Le Breton

14 April 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 67 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges mainly took place between 20 and 30 March 2022. According to these contacts, overall activity developed positively in the first months of the year, despite ongoing supply constraints as well as cost and price pressures. The war in Ukraine added further disruption to businesses, mainly in the form of further price increases for energy and raw materials, much of which would be passed through to selling prices, as well as shortages resulting in reduced production in some sectors. Overall, contacts expected growth to slow in the coming months, as higher inflation would reduce disposable income and final consumer demand, while uncertainty and downside risks were substantial.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
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Abstract
This box reviews the inventory cycle in the euro area, which normally is procyclical and notoriously volatile. The annual change in stocks of finished goods in manufacturing, based on PMI data, points to a continued positive inventory contribution to GDP growth in the first quarter of 2022. While fluctuations in this contribution generally reflect adjustments to cyclical changes in supply and demand, the current acceleration in stockbuilding could also reflect a “bullwhip effect”. This occurs where, as a precaution, manufacturing firms tend to hoard inventories of inputs, and at times inflate orders compared with actual needs, when faced with high demand and uncertainty about the supply of inputs. Looking ahead, short-term indicators and evidence from the ECB’s regular dialogue with non-financial companies point to further re-stocking needs, although the pace of such inventory building would depend on the resolution of the prevailing supply-side constraints.
JEL Code
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
R41 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Transportation Economics→Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise
23 April 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 66 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges took place between 23 March and 1 April 2021. According to these contacts, activity in much of the services sector continued to be strongly influenced by the prevalence of lockdowns and travel restrictions. Meanwhile, in the manufacturing sector, supply was increasingly failing to keep up with demand owing to shortages of inputs, which may continue for some weeks or months. Industrial companies pointed to some upward movement in prices, while prices in the services sector remained subdued.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
31 August 2009
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 105
Details
Abstract
The financial crisis has enhanced the need for close monitoring of financial flows in the economy of the euro area and at the global level focusing, in particular, on the development of financial imbalances and financial intermediation. In this context flow-of-funds analysis appears particularly useful, as flow-of-funds data provide the most comprehensive and consistent set of macro-financial information for all sectors in the economy. This occasional paper presents different uses of flow-of-funds statistics for economic and monetary analysis in the euro area. Flow-of-funds data for the euro area have developed progressively over the past decade. The first data were published in 2001, and fully-fledged quarterly integrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sector have been published since 2007. The paper illustrates how flow-of-funds data enable portfolio shifts between money and other financial assets to be assessed and trends in bank intermediation to be monitored, in particular. Based on data (and first published estimates) on financial wealth over the period 1980-2007, the paper analyses developments in the balance sheet of households and non-financial corporations in euro area countries over the last few decades and looks at financial soundness indicators using flow-of-funds data, namely debt and debt service ratios, and measures of financial wealth. Interactions with housing investment and saving are also analysed. In addition, the paper shows how flow-of-funds data can be used for assessing financial stability. Finally, the paper presents the framework for and use of flow-of-funds projections produced in the context of the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projection exercises, and reports the outcome of a sensitivity analysis that considers the impact of interest rate changes on the interest payments and receipts of households and non-financial corporations.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
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