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INTERVISTA

Assicurare la stabilità dei prezzi

Le recenti tensioni nei mercati hanno reso più incerte le prospettive di inflazione nell’area dell’euro, dichiara a El País Frank Elderson, Membro del Comitato esecutivo della BCE. Ribadiamo l’impegno a riportare l’inflazione al nostro obiettivo del 2% a medio termine.

Leggi l’intervista
INTERVISTA 29/03/2023

Prezzi e stabilità finanziaria

Il Capo economista Philip R. Lane parla con Die Zeit degli ultimi andamenti economici e spiega che non occorrono compromessi fra assicurare la stabilità finanziaria e contrastare l’inflazione.

Intervista
BOLLETTINO ECONOMICO 30/03/2023

Nuovo numero del Bollettino economico

Questa pubblicazione presenta le informazioni economiche e monetarie alla base delle decisioni del Consiglio direttivo. È diffusa otto volte l’anno, due settimane dopo ogni riunione di politica monetaria.

Bollettino economico
IL BLOG DELLA BCE 30/03/2023

Cosa sospinge l’inflazione: salari o profitti?

Il Blog della BCE analizza perché applicare il principio “occhio per occhio” per affrontare l’inflazione rende tutti più poveri. Imprese e lavoratori devono evitare una spirale salari-prezzi, se vogliamo tenere sotto controllo il pericolo di un’inflazione peristentemente elevata.

Post del Blog
29 March 2023
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 39th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference
27 March 2023
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by Columbia University and SGH Macro Advisor
Annexes
27 March 2023
27 March 2023
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Foreign Bankers’ Association (FBA) 30th anniversary
26 March 2023
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability
23 March 2023
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at PIIE conference "Floating Exchange Rates at Fifty", Washington DC
30 March 2023
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellicer
English
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29 March 2023
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 22 March by Kolja Rudzio
English
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26 March 2023
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Daniel Murray
5 March 2023
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Adolfo Lorente, from El Correo
English
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1 March 2023
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nicholas Owen
30 March 2023
High energy prices have dented real incomes. How to allocate these losses is at the heart of recent negotiations between firms and workers. If both sides try to unilaterally offset any real income losses, this could trigger successive wage and price increases, and create risks of an upward spiral that could make everyone poorer.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
29 March 2023
What is the best way to absorb economic shocks? Some approaches favour private risk sharing, others, public risk sharing. In this ECB Blog post we argue that a combination of both offers the best protection for European citizens against poor economic performance.
Details
JEL Code
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
24 March 2023
The ECB is for the first time disclosing the carbon footprint of its own investment portfolios and the Eurosystem’s corporate sector holdings. Executive Board members Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel explain the progress made and the next steps needed to decarbonise the portfolios of the ECB and the Eurosystem.
Details
JEL Code
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
9 March 2023
Europe must speed up its green and digital transition. For that, we need to complete the Capital Markets Union to provide effective financing. This is the plea made by the five Presidents of the ECB, EIB, European Council, European Commission and Eurogroup in a joint post.
7 March 2023
Croatian consumers have expressed concerns about price increases related to the euro changeover. Preliminary evidence presented in this ECB blog post shows that the changeover from kuna to euro has so far had relatively little impact on Croatian consumer prices and price perceptions.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
30 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2804
Details
Abstract
In sticky price models, the slope of the Phillips curve depends positively on the probability of price adjustment. I use a series for the empirical frequency of price adjustment to test this implication. I find some evidence that the Phillips curve slope depends positively on the repricing rate. My results support the implication from New Keynesian theory with Calvo pricing that the Phillips curve slope is a convex function of the frequency of price adjustment. However, at all observed values of the frequency of price adjustment, the empirical Phillips curve relation is much flatter than the New Keynesian Phillips Curve at standard parameter values would imply.
JEL Code
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Network
Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA)
30 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2803
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Abstract
We study the effects of low short-term interest rates on the optimal portfolio allocation in Markowitz portfolios and Risk parity portfolios. We propose a measure of Portfolio Instabil-ity, gauging the amount of optimal portfolio shifts needed to respond to exogenous shocks to the expected risk and return of the risky portfolio assets. Portfolio Instability, i.e. the selling pressure on riskier asset holdings, is found to be stronger the lower the risk-free interest rate. Heightened portfolio instability in the presence of low rates is found to emerge through two channels both of which incentivise the build-up of large and leveraged risky asset shares during calm periods which need to be unwound in the event of higher market volatility: first, low rates (mechanically) augment the excess return to be gained by investing in riskier assets and second, they are found to dampen volatility of riskier assets in the portfolio. The inverse relationship between portfolio instability and the risk-free rates is found to increase the closer the risk-free rate approaches the effective lower bound. Counterfactual analyses of the behaviour of optimal multi-asset portfolios demonstrate that the sell-off in riskier asset classes during the Covid crisis in March 2020 was more severe than would have been in the presence of higher short-term interest rates.
JEL Code
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
30 March 2023
MEP LETTER
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
This box provides updated estimates on the fiscal support provided by euro area governments in response to the energy crisis and high inflation, reflecting the March 2023 ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also gives granular information on the design and timing of these fiscal policy support measures.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2022, from 2 November 2022 to 7 February 2023.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
Market-based measures of inflation compensation and market-implied real interest rates contain important information for monetary policy analysis but are available for the euro area only for the period since 2005. However, since they are correlated with other macroeconomic and financial variables that are available for longer periods, it is possible to construct time series for market-based measures of inflation compensation and real rates going back to 1992, using a penalised regression approach. These time series can be used as an input into econometric analysis and for illustrating stylised facts and historical patterns.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
The box provides an assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the exports of firms involved in global value chains (“GVC” firms), based on firm-level data for France. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, GVC firms, defined as firms that both export and import, faced disruptions in their supplies from source countries. These shortages of intermediate inputs traded via global value chains constrained firms’ production and exports. The weaker export performance of GVC firms relative to other exporters coincided with the emergence of supply bottlenecks, which suggests that these disruptions were a key factor holding back the performance of firms involved in global value chains. Estimates in this box suggest that these supply-side disruptions had a significant downward impact on exports in the euro area in 2020 and 2021.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2802
Details
Abstract
Fiscal policy constitutes a key tool for business cycle stabilisation next to monetary policy. In this context, having a well-suited macroeconomic model for analysing fiscal policy at a central bank is of primary importance. This paper documents the fiscal block of the ECB-BASE, which is a semi–structural model for the euro area developed at the ECB for projections and policy analysis. The set-up of the fiscal block ensures comprehensive coverage of the government sector and tight links to the quarterly fiscal accounts. Thanks to this design, it is possible to simulate the model with a wide range of fiscal shocks, which, as shown in the paper, have distinct propagation mechanisms. Having discussed the set-up and the potency of fiscal policy in the model, this paper also includes the following applications for fiscal policy analysis: counterfactual scenarios with alternative fiscal rules, assessment of fiscal policy conducted in the euro area in the past and stochastic fiscal projections.
JEL Code
C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
29 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2801
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Abstract
The bulk of euro-denominated cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in times of high economic uncertainty. We develop a Diamond and Dy-bvig model with public money as a store of value and heterogeneous beliefs about bank stability that accounts for this evidence. Consumers who are sufficiently pessimistic prefer to hold cash. In our model, the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a store of value that is superior to cash leads to bank disintermediation as some depositors opt for switching to CBDC based on their beliefs. While CBDC partially replaces deposits, long-term lending decreases less than proportionally as remaining depositors are, on aver-age, more optimistic about bank stability and banks re-balance their portfolio accordingly. The appropriate calibration of CBDC design features such as remuneration and quantity limits can mitigate these effects. We study the individual and social welfare implications of introducing CBDC as a store of value.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
29 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
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Abstract
This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks.
JEL Code
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
28 March 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 313
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Abstract
In recent years, several proposals have emerged from the policy and academic spheres to address climate and energy-related public investment needs in the European Union (EU) with an EU-level instrument. This paper provides an analytical contribution to the discussion by examining the rationale for an EU Climate and Energy Security Fund, with a focus on its legal and institutional feasibility.
28 March 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 312
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Abstract
In implementing its monetary policy, the ECB conducts collateralised credit operations with banks. The bulk of the financial risks involved in these collateralised credit operations are mitigated primarily by the valuation haircuts imposed on the mobilised collateral. Since the establishment of the euro in January 1999, valuation haircuts have been formulated mainly on the basis of risk management considerations and have been systematically calibrated with a very low level of risk tolerance. However, their implied risk tolerance may sometimes be used as a monetary policy stance lever, as clearly illustrated when the ECB decided to reduce haircuts to improve funding conditions for the real economy during the outset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition, the ECB ensures that financial market developments warranting general methodological changes are incorporated into the calibration of valuation haircuts adequately and in good time. In a particularly challenging economic environment, the ECB has also recently committed to ensuring that climate change risks are considered when calibrating the valuation haircuts applied to corporate bonds. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and explanation of the main guiding rules, as well as explaining some of the statistical methods currently employed by the ECB when formulating valuation haircuts. Keywords: monetary policy implementation, risk control framework of credit operations, valuation haircuts
JEL Code
D02 : Microeconomics→General→Institutions: Design, Formation, and Operations
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
28 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
In 2022 the ECB conducted a climate risk stress test of some of the major financial exposures on the Eurosystem balance sheet. This box details the key features of the exercise and its main outcomes.
JEL Code
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C58 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
27 March 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 311
Details
Abstract
Over the past decade, geopolitical developments - and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world - have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU's economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU's OSA policy agenda which extend to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB's monetary policy and other policies.
JEL Code
F0 : International Economics→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
L5 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
27 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box assesses the uneven economic effects of the recent surge in energy prices across households and firms in the euro area. The box first uses disaggregated data to disentangle the effects of the deterioration in the energy terms of trade on final expenditures and aggregate income, allocating the implied purchasing power losses across the household income distribution. The box then uses structural economic models to identify the energy price shock underlying the recent terms-of-trade deterioration and to gauge its direct, indirect and second-round effects on the overall economy. As regards the results, the different exposures of households to higher energy costs and lower income indicate a relatively larger impact of the energy terms-of-trade deterioration on lower-income households. The direct and indirect effects of the energy price shock mainly impacted private consumption on the expenditure side and non-energy sectors on the income side. The second-round effects spread the impact more evenly across private consumption and investment, with the government partially shielding private sector disposable income.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
27 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box provides initial evidence of the impact on global oil markets and Russian oil flows of the EU embargo and the G7 price cap on Russian oil imposed in response to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Overall, international oil prices have declined amid resilient supply from Russia and lower global demand, despite the expected rebound of the Chinese economy. After some initial bottlenecks, Russia managed to redirect most of its crude oil exports from Europe to Asia, but only by continuing to offer significant price discounts relative to global prices. However, a stronger impact on global oil markets could still materialise, particularly as, since February, Russia has officially prohibited sales of crude oil to countries that adhere to the price cap mechanism. In addition, the sanctions on refined oil products are only in the early phase of implementation, with initial evidence showing that Russia is partly redirecting those flows towards Africa and unknown destinations while, in the absence of Russian imports, the European diesel market remains tight.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
23 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2800
Details
Abstract
During the March 2020 market turmoil, euro area money-market funds (MMFs) expe-rienced significant outflows, reaching almost 8% of assets under management. This paper investigates whether the volatility in MMF flows was driven by investors’ liquidity needs re-lated to derivative margin payments. We combine three highly granular unique data sources (EMIR data for derivatives, SHSS data for investor holdings of MMFs and Refinitiv Lip-per data for daily MMF flows) to construct a daily fund-level panel dataset spanning from February to April 2020. We estimate the effects of variation margin paid and received by the largest holders of EUR-denominated MMFs on flows of these MMFs. The main findings suggest that variation margin payments faced by some investors holding MMFs were an im-portant driver of the flows of EUR-denominated MMFs domiciled in euro area.
JEL Code
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
23 March 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION

Tassi di interesse

Operazioni di rifinanziamento marginale 3,75 %
Operazioni di rifinanziamento principali (tasso fisso) 3,50 %
Depositi presso la banca centrale 3,00 %
22/03/2023 Precedenti tassi della BCE

Tasso di inflazione

Interfaccia interattiva sull’inflazione

Tassi di cambio

USD US dollar 1.0886
JPY Japanese yen 144.42
GBP Pound sterling 0.88164
CHF Swiss franc 0.9963
Aggiornamento: 30/03/2023 Tassi di cambio dell’euro