SPEECH
25 September 2023
Money and inflation
Money still matters for monetary policy, says Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. The strong post-pandemic rise in broad money growth was a harbinger of the subsequent inflation surge and may have contributed to entrenching adverse cost-push shocks.
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INTERVENTO
22/09/2023
Disinflazione e politica monetaria nell’area dell’euro
L’orientamento restrittivo della nostra politica monetaria sta fornendo considerevole sostegno alle dinamiche di disinflazione necessarie per assicurare un ritorno tempestivo dell’inflazione al nostro obiettivo, dichiara il Capo economista Philip R. Lane.
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BOLLETTINO ECONOMICO
25/09/2023
Le forze di lavoro dell’area dell’euro oltre i livelli pre-pandemici
Le forze di lavoro sono ora superiori ai livelli pre-pandemici e nuovamente in linea con la tendenza di lungo periodo. Molti nuovi posti di lavoro sono stati ricoperti da persone un tempo inattive. Tale andamento è stato determinato da un miglioramento delle prospettive macroeconomiche nel periodo della pandemia e da un allentamento dei vincoli dal lato dell’offerta di manodopera.
Bollettino economico- 26 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 26 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 19 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 19 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 19 September 2023
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 15 September 2023
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Annexes
- 15 September 2023
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2023
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 September 2023
- MONETARY POLICY STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 14 September 2023
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 26 September 2023
- Welcome address (presentation slides) at the joint European Central Bank - Banque de France - Centre for Economic Policy Research conference "Monetary Policy Challenges for European Macroeconomies" in Paris
- 25 September 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 25 September 2023
- 25 September 2023
- Thünen Lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the annual conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik
- 22 September 2023
- Dinner speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money Marketeers of New York University
- 21 September 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Mediterranean Meetings
- 22 September 2023
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jennifer Schonberger
- 5 September 2023
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Stephen Kinsella on 31 August 2023
- 30 July 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Anne Cheyvialle and Florentin Collomp on 28 July 2023
- 7 July 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Geneviève Van Lède on 5 July 2023
- 25 June 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by María Jesús Pérez, John Müller and Daniel Caballero
- 6 September 2023
- Moving towards carbon neutrality as quickly and boldly as possible is by far the best way to slow down climate change. It may take more effort in the short run, but in the long run it will cost less overall, says ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos. We need to reach carbon neutrality to avoid existential risks to nature, people and our economies. And we need to start making changes soon. Procrastinating may be easier and less costly today, but means we will pay a higher price tomorrow: the damage to our environment and economies from rising temperatures will be much more severe. In fact, the sooner and faster we complete the necessary green transition, the lower the overall costs and risks. This is one of the main outcomes of our second economy-wide climate stress test. Let me talk you through the findings.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 30 August 2023
- With rising geopolitical tensions and urgent global challenges such as the climate and digital transitions, Europe needs to bolster its resilience to shocks and invest strategically. In order to achieve this, we need to work together, as a more integrated Europe is better positioned to realize shared goals in a fragmented global economy.Details
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 24 August 2023
- Our money needs to be easy to handle, appealing and difficult to counterfeit. This ECB Blog post talks you through good banknote design – and seeks your advice.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
- 9 August 2023
- Words matter as much as actions for central banks. Because changes in tone can presage shifts in monetary policy. We have created an index to measure and compare the tone of policy communication by the ECB and the US Fed. This ECB Blog post talks you through the findings.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
- 2 August 2023
- Policymakers should focus on preserving bank resilience to strengthen macroprudential stability at a time of economic uncertainty. This would ensure that sufficient capital buffers are available should widespread losses arise, argues ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 26 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Banks distribute capital to equity investors either by paying dividends or by buying back shares. Such distributions of capital have ambiguous implications for monetary policy, since these lower banks’ cost of equity by signalling their soundness to investors but also reduce banks’ capital ratios and thus potentially their intermediation capacity. Since the end of the pandemic and the end of ECB Banking Supervision’s recommendation to refrain from or limit payouts, banks in the euro area have distributed capital at a rapid pace. Such distributions have been spearheaded by ambitious buyback programmes, catching up on forgone distributions in previous years, while a further increase in dividends is also likely. Payouts vary greatly across banks in terms of both overall size and composition. Individual banks tend to distribute more capital when they are more profitable and have better asset quality, capital ratios above their announced targets and more liquidity. They also tend to spread distributions over several years. We find that recent payouts have had a positive signalling effect on financial markets. Higher payout commitments have also been associated with lower bank credit supply and higher lending rates, therefore possibly contributing to the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy tightening impulse so far.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
- 25 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The strong rebound in the labour force is a notable development in the euro area labour market and supported the resilient employment growth in recent quarters. In particular, over the last year and a half the main source of employment growth has been the strong inflow of people joining the labour force rather than a fall in the number of unemployed. This box provides an overview of recent euro area labour force developments, using data from Eurostat and the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. It also analyses the drivers of the euro area labour force using a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR to disentangle the push and pull factors behind the labour force dynamics.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- 22 September 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 22 September 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 22 September 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 20 September 2023
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 110Details
- Abstract
- On the basis of insurance companies’ bond investments, I examine how shifts in investors’ demand for corporate bonds affect non-financial bond issuers. When demand for their bonds increases, firms’ financing costs decrease, which encourages them to increase their bond debt and invest more. These effects crucially depend on how credit-constrained firms are. My findings emphasise the critical role that institutional investors play in shaping non-financial firms’ financing decisions and real economic activity.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 20 September 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 329Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses banks’ ability to use capital buffers in the euro area, taking into account overlapping capital requirements between the risk-based capital framework and the leverage ratio capital framework from 2016 to 2022. This analysis is the first to quantify buffer usability in multiple jurisdictions and across various bank types, identify key drivers of buffer usability and assess the impact of various policy measures using longer time series. The paper shows that while both risk-based and leverage frameworks play a key role in enhancing the resilience of the banking system and ensuring financial stability, their simultaneous application creates interactions that may affect the functioning of capital buffers. In this regard, we investigate to what extent banks could have drawn down regulatory capital buffers in the risk-based framework without breaching current leverage ratio requirements, which is in line with the approach to buffer usability taken in ESRB (2021b). We show that buffer usability was partially constrained in the period examined and is expected to remain so under the current regulatory framework and if risk weight densities (RWDs) remain low. This finding indicates that the leverage ratio constitutes an effective backstop to the risk-based framework, both as regards minimum requirements and capital buffers. Limited buffer usability was identified especially for global systemically important institutions (G-SIIs) that rely largely on internal modelling approaches to calculate risk-based capital requirements, leading to comparably low risk weights and making the leverage ratio relatively more binding. Adding to previous contributions, we find that banks’ ability to use capital buffers fluctuated over time, generally increasing before 2019 and decreasing after the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, with substantial heterogeneity across countries. Furthermore, we provide new insights into the relationship between the RWD of a bank and its buffer usability and find that there is a critical RWD range between 25%
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 18 September 2023
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 15 September 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 15 September 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 14 September 2023
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 14 September 2023
- ANNEX
- 13 September 2023
- LEGAL ACT
- 13 September 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 317Details
- Abstract
- Large swings in cross-border capital flows can have consequences for domestic stability and open a channel for the transmission of shocks and spillovers across economies, including the euro area. Against this backdrop, the present paper reviews new evidence for the effectiveness of capital flow management policies in achieving macroeconomic and financial stability. Particular attention is paid to literature that has been used by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to underpin its so-called Integrated Policy Framework, in which the roles of monetary, exchange rate, macroprudential and capital flow management policies are considered jointly. The literature published since the global financial crisis continues to affirm the effectiveness of capital flow management measures (CFMs) in addressing financial stability risks resulting from capital flow reversals; at the same time, however, it also continues to underscore that such policies should not substitute for warranted economic adjustments and structural reforms. Even so, recent literature also provides a case for considering, under certain circumstances, “precautionary” CFMs which could be applied to capital inflows to prevent a boom-and-bust cycle from being set in motion. This paper also highlights the need for further work on the long-term effects of such precautionary instruments, as well as their joint use with monetary policy instruments. Regarding capital flow management policies within the domain of central banks, the literature points to the usefulness of foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) in mitigating financial stability risks in countries with specific characteristics such as currency mismatches, borrowing constraints and shallow foreign exchange markets that are common to emerging market and developing economies alike. However, the literature also warns that such measures may reduce economic agents’ incentives to hedge against currency risks, with the result that unfavourable initial conditions beco
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
- 6 September 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 328Details
- Abstract
- Transition to a carbon-neutral economy is necessary to limit the negative impact of climate change and has become one of the world’s most urgent priorities. This paper assesses the impact of three potential transition pathways, differing in the timing and level of ambition of emissions’ reduction, and quantifies the associated investment needs, economic costs and financial risks for corporates, households and financial institutions in the euro area. Building on the first ECB top-down, economy-wide climate stress test, this paper contributes to the field of climate stress testing by introducing three key innovations. First, the design of three short-term transition scenarios that combine the transition paths developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) with macroeconomic projections that allow for the latest energy-related developments. Second, the introduction of granular sectoral dynamics and energy-specific considerations by country relevant to transition risk. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of transition risk on the euro area private sector and on the financial system, using a granular dataset that combines climate, energy-related and financial information for millions of firms with the euro area credit register and securities database and country-level data on households. By comparing different transition scenarios, the results of the exercise show that acting immediately and decisively would provide significant benefits for the euro area economy and financial system, not only by maintaining the optimal net-zero emissions path (and therefore limiting the physical impact of climate change), but also by limiting financial risk. An accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy would be helpful to contain risks for financial institutions and would not generate financial stability concerns for the euro area, provided that firms and households could finance their green investments in an orderly manner. However, the heterogeneous results across economic sectors and banks suggest that more careful monitoring of certain entity subsets and of credit exposures will be required during the transition process.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q47 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy Forecasting
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 28 August 2023
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 25 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2843Details
- Abstract
- How should monetary policy respond to excessive capital in•ows that appreciate the currency and widen the external de•cit? Using the workhorse two-country open-macro model, we derive a quadratic approximation of the utility-based global loss function in incomplete market economies, and solve for the optimal targeting rules under cooperation. The optimal monetary stance is expansionary if the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on import prices is complete, contractionary if nominal rigidities attenuate ERPT. Excessive capital in•ows, however, may lead to currency undervaluation instead of overvaluation for some parameter values. The optimal stance is then invariably expansionary to support domestic demand.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 24 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2842Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indices which measure the severity of financial crises on a continuous scale. Several index designs from the financial stress and systemic risk literature can be represented as special cases. We introduce an enhanced daily variant of the CISS (composite indicator of systemic stress) for the euro area and the US. The CISS aggregates a representative set of stress indicators using their time-varying cross-correlations as systemic risk weights, computationally similar to how portfolio risk is computed from the risk characteristics of individual assets. A boot-strap algorithm provides test statistics. Single-equation and system quantile growth-at-risk regressions show that the CISS has stronger effects in the lower tails of the growth distribu-tion. Simulations based on a quantile VAR suggest that systemic stress is a major driver of the Great Recession, while its contribution to the COVID-19 crisis appears to be small.
- JEL Code
- C14 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
C31 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Cross-Sectional Models, Spatial Models, Treatment Effect Models, Quantile Regressions, Social Interaction Models
C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 23 August 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 18 August 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2841Details
- Abstract
- We analyse the impact of the adoption of expected credit loss accounting (IFRS 9) on the timeliness and potential procyclicality of banks’ loan loss provisioning. We use granular loan-level data from the euro area’s credit register and investigate both firm-level credit events and macroeconomic shocks (2020 COVID-19 pandemic, 2022 energy price shock). We find that provisions under the new standard are higher before default and more responsive to shocks. However, the majority of provisioning still occurs at the time of default and the dynamics around default events are similar to pre-existing national standards. Additionally, banks with a larger capital headroom provision significantly more, particularly for loans using IFRS 9. This suggests a higher risk of underprovisioning for less capitalized banks.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 17 August 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 327Details
- Abstract
- This investigation starts with the observation that, over the last decade, profitability rates reported by euro area (EA) banks have remained, on average, persistently below those reported by peer banks in the United States (US). In particular, banks’ return on equity (ROE) has fluctuated around 5% in the EA, but around 10% in the US, indicating a profitability gap of around 5 percentage points. However, while comparisons are frequently made between EA and US banks in academic and political debate, they are not perfect benchmarks, nor should this paper be regarded as aiming for a like-for-like comparison.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Tassi di interesse
| Operazioni di rifinanziamento marginale | 4,75 % |
| Operazioni di rifinanziamento principali (tasso fisso) | 4,50 % |
| Depositi presso la banca centrale | 4,00 % |
Tasso di inflazione
Interfaccia interattiva sull’inflazioneTassi di cambio
| USD | US dollar | 1.0605 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 157.87 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.87020 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9675 |
Stabilità finanziaria
I nostri compiti Quadro istituzionale Financial Stability Review Misure macroprudenzialiOperazioni di mercato
Operazioni di mercato aperto Programmi di acquisto di attività Prestito di titoli del PSPPNON SEI UN ESPERTO? LEGGI “FACCIAMO CHIAREZZA”
APPROFONDISCI
Cos’è la Banca centrale europea?