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РЕЧ

Бъдещето на определянето на инфлационна цел

Според члена на Изпълнителния съвет Изабел Шнабел определянето на целево ниво на инфлацията служи за котва на инфлационните очаквания. Ако алтернативните ни сценарии не се изчерпват с малко вероятни събития, рамката на политиката ни може да стане по-солидна и да отразява по-добре несигурността.

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ОТЧЕТНОСТ 17 април 2024 г.

Представяне на годишния доклад за 2023 г.

Заместник-председателят на ЕЦБ Луис де Гиндос ще се яви пред Комисията по икономически и парични въпроси на Европейския парламент на 18 април 2024 г. от 9:00 ч. централноевропейско време. Той ще представи годишния ни доклад за 2023 г. и ще отговаря на въпроси на членовете на Комисията.

Излъчване в интернет
РЕЧ 12 април 2024 г.

Политики, устойчиви на кризата с климата и природата

Според члена на Изпълнителния съвет Франк Елдерсон неизпълнението на Парижките цели за климата създава икономически трудности, засягащи работата на централните банки. За да се избегнат дългосрочни грешки, определящите икономическите политики трябва да се справят със структурните промени и да намалят несигурността.

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СЪБИТИЕ 8 април 2024 г.

Медиен семинар – кандидатствайте до 3 май!

Ако работите за медия и бихте желали да участвате в нашия семинар на 6–7 юни, изпратете имейл на адрес media@ecb.europa.eu. Семинарът е възможност да обсъдите основни теми от паричната политика и банковия надзор и да се запознаете със създатели на политики в ЕЦБ.

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Governments and central banks can shield the economy from shocks with their decisions. The ECB Blog looks at a recent high-level conference that analysed the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy and questioned some long-held beliefs.
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E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
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The Eurosystem is shrinking its balance sheet, which makes more government bonds available for purchase. The ECB Blog looks at how markets are adjusting to this new situation with regard to bond price volatility, liquidity and the impact on repo markets.
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G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
14 March 2024
Central banks have been collecting art for a long time. While the works were previously only accessible at their physical locations, more and more central banks now make their collections available online. The ECB Blog showcases four collections you can enjoy from wherever you are.
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JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
22 February 2024
Bitcoin has failed on the promise to be a global decentralised digital currency. Instead it is used for illicit transactions. The latest approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is not suitable as means of payment or as an investment.
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JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
16 April 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2926
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Abstract
We shed light on the demand for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a means of payment, based on survey payment data. We provide a quantitative framework to assess transactional demand for CBDC at the point of sale, accommodating a wide range of design choices. We develop a structural model of payment means adoption and usage and estimate CBDC demand based on individuals’ preferences for payment method attributes. We disentangle the friction potentially associated to CBDC adoption, assessing two of its potential drivers: information frictions and gradual diffusion of digital payment methods. We find that modelling adoption is key to understanding CBDC demand. Finally, we show that optimal CBDC design, information campaigns, and network effects can substantially boost demand.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 345
Details
Abstract
This paper discusses the impact that a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could have on the implementation of monetary policy. Monetary policy implementation could be affected if the introduction of the retail CBDC changes the volume of commercial bank deposits held by customers, which would, in turn, affect central bank reserves. While it is often assumed that customer deposits would decrease if a CBDC was introduced, we provide arguments why this is by no means clear cut and deposits could even increase. If bank deposits do decrease, banks would need to draw on, and therefore reduce, their central bank reserve holdings. Moreover, uncertainty as to the timing and extent of any conversions of deposits into CBDC might prompt banks to scale up their demand for central bank reserves in order to hold larger precautionary buffers. Consequently, central banks might need to adjust their reserve supply and other features of their monetary policy implementation, depending, for example, on whether they use a floor or a corridor system for monetary policy implementation. In the specific case of the digital euro, the features already envisaged for its design would make it possible to minimise the risk of negative consequences for monetary policy implementation.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
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WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2925
Details
Abstract
This paper extends Boone (2008) by introducing a competition measure at the individual firm level rather than for an entire market segment. It is based on the elasticity between profits and efficiency and called marginal relative profitability (MRP). Its intuition is that when a small change in efficiency derived from marginal costs can cause a large change in profits, a firm exercises pressure on its peers and gains profits. The MRP is embedded in the theoretical framework of Boone and measures competition vis-à-vis other market participants. We apply this extended Boone indicator to individual bank-level competition in the loan market in the four largest euro area countries and Austria. The MRP distribution is skewed to the left and many banks have a MRP below one, indicating that those banks have little incentive to enhance their efficiency to increase their profits. The MRP approach is shown to be a powerful tool to test the efficient-structure, structure-conduct performance, and ‘quiet life’ hypotheses and to detect comparatively weak non-competitive banks. Our new measure of firm-level competition enriches and complements other competition measures and provides a promising starting point for future market power analyses.
JEL Code
D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
L16 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change, Industrial Price Indices
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 April 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2924
Details
Abstract
Investment funds hold a disproportionately larger fraction of domestic relative to foreign stocks. Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias. The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers. We use a “look-through approach” to account for this misclassification. First, we find substantially smaller home bias estimates compared to those in the literature. Second, the explanatory power of plausible home bias determinants is lower than previously documented. Third, familiarity only plays a meaningful role when investors are households, highlighting the role of investor sophistication.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
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G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
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ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 57 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 11 and 19 March 2024, aggregate activity was subdued at the start of the year, but there were some signs of a pick-up in demand and expectations of a gradual, albeit modest, recovery in the course of the year. Growth in selling prices picked up slightly in the first months of the year, owing mainly to a slight rebound in the prices of some intermediate goods and services. However, growth in prices closer to the final consumer continued to ease gradually, as did wage expectations.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
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8 April 2024
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3 April 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2923
Details
Abstract
How a historic drop in bank deposits shapes banks’ loan supply? We exploit the effects of a large, and unexpected, increase in monetary policy rates to estimate the deposit channel of monetary policy using an extensive credit register that includes all bank-firm lending relationships in all euro area countries. We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders. This credit restriction is stronger for fixed rate and longer maturity loans, but not for riskier borrowers. The effect is mostly driven by banks coming into the hiking period with a larger unhedged duration gap that renders borrowers of those banks more vulnerable to credit restrictions due to the deposit outflows as interest rates surge. We resort to the deposit beta as an instrument variable and a matched estimator that bear out the thrust of our results.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
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27 March 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2922
Details
Abstract
This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant.
JEL Code
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
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22 March 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2921
Details
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of voluntary climate commitments by banks on their lending activity. We use administrative data on the universe of bank lending from 19 European countries. There is strong selection into commitments, with increased participation by the largest banks and banks with the most pre-existing exposure to high-polluting industries. Setting a commitment leads to a boost in a lender’s ESG rating. Lenders reduce credit in sectors they have targeted as high priority for decarbonization. However, climate-aligned banks do not change their lending or loan pricing differentially compared to banks without climate commitments, suggesting they are not actively divesting. We can reject that climate-aligned lenders divest from firms in targeted sectors by more than 2.6%. Firm borrowers are no more likely to set climate targets after their lender sets a climate target, which casts doubt on active engagement by lenders. These results call into question the efficacy of voluntary commitments.
JEL Code
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages

Лихвени проценти

Пределно кредитно улеснение 4,75 %
Основни операции по рефинансиране (фиксиран лихвен процент) 4,50 %
Депозитно улеснение 4,00 %
20 септември 2023 г. Предишни основни лихвени проценти на ЕЦБ

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Обменни курсове

USD US dollar 1.0638
JPY Japanese yen 164.54
GBP Pound sterling 0.85400
CHF Swiss franc 0.9693
Последна актуализация: 17 април 2024 г. Обменни курсове на еврото