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Η ΕΚΤ Ενημέρωση Επεξηγήσεις Έρευνα & Εκδόσεις Στατιστικές Νομισματική πολιτική Το ευρώ Πληρωμές & Αγορές Θέσεις εργασίας
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ΣΥΝΕΝΤΕΥΞΗ

Οι αποφάσεις μας για τη νομισματική πολιτική

Αποφασίσαμε να διατηρήσουμε τα επιτόκια αμετάβλητα επειδή θα έχουμε περισσότερες πληροφορίες τον Σεπτέμβριο, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των μακροοικονομικών προβολών, αναφέρει ο Αντιπρόεδρος Luis de Guindos στην Europa Press. Θα είναι εξαιρετικά σημαντικό να δούμε ότι ο πληθωρισμός συγκλίνει σταθερά προς το 2% μεσοπρόθεσμα.

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ΝΟΜΙΣΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ

Η πιο πρόσφατη συνέντευξη Τύπου της ΕΚΤ

Η Πρόεδρος της ΕΚΤ, Christine Lagarde, και ο Αντιπρόεδρος της ΕΚΤ, Luis de Guindos, εξήγησαν τις τελευταίες αποφάσεις νομισματικής πολιτικής του Διοικητικού Συμβουλίου και απάντησαν σε ερωτήσεις δημοσιογράφων στη διάρκεια συνέντευξης Τύπου.

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ΣΤΑΤΙΣΤΙΚΗ 16 Ιουλίου 2024

Έρευνα για τις τραπεζικές χορηγήσεις - Αποτελέσματα β΄ τριμήνου 2024

Τα πιστοδοτικά κριτήρια παρέμειναν σε γενικές γραμμές αυστηρά, έγιναν δε πολύ αυστηρότερα στον τομέα των εμπορικών ακινήτων. Η ζήτηση δανείων από τις επιχειρήσεις εξακολούθησε να υποχωρεί, ενώ η ζήτηση εκ μέρους των νοικοκυριών αυξήθηκε. Οι κλιματικοί κίνδυνοι και οι συναφείς πολιτικές εξακολούθησαν να αντανακλώνται στις συνθήκες χρηματοδότησης.

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ΤΟ ΙΣΤΟΛΟΓΙΟ ΤΗΣ ΕΚΤ 23 Ιουλίου 2024

Αγορές συμφωνιών επαναγοράς και μείωση ισολογισμού

Οι αγορές συμφωνιών επαναγοράς είναι ζωτικής σημασίας για την άντληση ρευστότητας και τίτλων εκ μέρους των τραπεζών και αποτελούν σημαντικό κρίκο στην αλυσίδα μετάδοσης της νομισματικής πολιτικής. Πώς επηρέασε η μείωση του ισολογισμού του Ευρωσυστήματος αυτές τις αγορές; Το ιστολόγιο της ΕΚΤ εξετάζει τη δυναμική τους.

Διαβάστε το ιστολόγιο της ΕΚΤ
23 July 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
23 July 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
19 July 2024
GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONS
19 July 2024
PRESS RELEASE
19 July 2024
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
19 July 2024
PRESS RELEASE
23 July 2024
Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint ECB-IMF-IMFER Conference 2024
Annexes
23 July 2024
18 July 2024
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 July 2024
4 July 2024
Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the National Conference of Statistics on official statistics at the time of artificial intelligence
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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4 July 2024
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture in Naples
1 July 2024
Introductory speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
23 July 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
English
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11 June 2024
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf, Stefan Reccius, Isabella Bufacchi, Guillaume Benoit and Alexandre Counis in Paris on 7 June 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (4) +
27 May 2024
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 24 May 2024
24 May 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steffen Clement on 16 May 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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23 May 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Dietmar Mascher and Alexander Zens
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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23 July 2024
Repo markets are vital for banks to source liquidity and securities. They also represent an essential link in the monetary policy transmission chain. While the Eurosystem is in the process of reducing its market footprint, repo markets are going through a phase of change. The ECB Blog looks at dynamics in this market.
Details
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
10 July 2024
The green transition will significantly increase demand for key minerals over the coming decades. The impact on energy prices will ultimately depend on how supply adjusts. The ECB Blog looks at the geopolitical risks involved.
Details
JEL Code
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
4 July 2024
Firms’ inflation expectations are key for monetary policy makers. The ECB Blog presents new survey data on these expectations, evidence on what influences them, how they change when new information becomes available, and if they matter for the plans and choices firms make.
Details
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
27 June 2024
Europe needs trillions of euros to manage climate change, become digital and defend itself. How can EU and national policymakers support these projects? This Blog post discusses the options in times of low growth and high public debt levels.
Details
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
25 June 2024
A digital euro would combine the convenience of digital payments with cash-like features. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone explains how a digital euro would enhance Europeans’ freedom of choice when deciding how to pay.
23 July 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2955
Details
Abstract
We analyze the optimal window length in the average inflation targeting rule within a Behavioral THANK model. The central bank faces an occasionally binding effective lower bound (ELB) or persistent supply shocks, and can also use quantitative easing. We show that the optimal averaging period is infinitely long given a conventional degree of myopia. Finite yet long-lasting windows dominate for higher cognitive discounting; i.e., the makeup property is shown to be qualitatively resistant to deviation from rational expectations. We point out that the optimal window may depend on the speed of return to the target path. We solve the model both locally and globally to disentangle the effects of uncertainty due to the ELB. The welfare loss difference between solution techniques is considerably decreasing in the degree of history dependence.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E71 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
23 July 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2954
Details
Abstract
We study the sensitivity of the realised LGD to macroeconomic conditions by exploring Global Credit’s confidential dataset on observed cash flows from defaulted loans. Given the prolonged duration of loan recovery, spanning several years, and the potential for macroeconomic fluctuations during this time frame, our study explores whether the sensitivity of realised LGD to macroeconomic conditions varies based on the timing of cash flows. We find that, regardless of the cash flow timing, the sensitivity of the LGD to macroeconomic conditions is higher for real-estate secured loans than for unsecured loans. The most relevant macroeconomic variables for the secured LGD are unemployment rate and stock returns, followed by house prices and the long-term interest rate. For unsecured loans, real GDP growth and stock returns are the most relevant predictors. These results may be relevant for both micro and macroprudential policymakers by informing on the procyclicality of risk parameters and bank capital requirements.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
23 July 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 121
Details
Abstract
Households differ considerably in terms of the inflation they experience at any point in time. The main reasons for this are that prices (and thus price changes) differ from place to place and that households do not all buy the same products. Households adjust their purchases over time, but not enough to offset these differences.
JEL Code
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D30 : Microeconomics→Distribution→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
22 July 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2953
Details
Abstract
Since the advent of Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models, countercyclical unemployment risk has been deemed an important amplification mechanism for business cycles shocks. Yet, the aggregate effects of such “unemployment fears” are hard to pin down. We thus revisit this issue in the context of a rich two-asset HANK model, proposing new ways to isolate their general equilibrium effects and tackle the long-standing challenge of modelling wage bargaining in this class of model. While unemployment fears can exert noticeable aggregate effects, we find their magnitude to depend importantly on the distribution of firm profits. Households’ ability to borrow stabilizes the economy. Our framework has also implications for policy: in the aftermath of an adverse energy price shock, fiscal policy can help reducing the hysteresis effects on unemployment and most households gain if the central bank accommodates an employment recovery at the cost of higher inflation.
JEL Code
D52 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Incomplete Markets
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
22 July 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2952
Details
Abstract
This paper provides a first empirical analysis of the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) climate-risk-related supervisory efforts on (i) climate risk exposure and related risk management of banks; and (ii) on the induced shifts in banks’ portfolio choices with regard to additional green finance. From 2020 onwards, the ECB has introduced various measures to enhance climate-risk-related supervisory efforts. Our identification strategy exploits the fact that the ECB’s efforts on climate supervision has only been introduced for selected banks within the European Union i.e., the Significant Institutions under the Single Supervisory Mechanism. Other banks (i.e., the Less Significant Institutions) have remained unaffected. We set up a difference-in-difference setup based on a novel data set and find a significant impact on both improvements in climate risk exposure and management and on an increase in banks’ green finance activities.
JEL Code
D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
22 July 2024
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
19 July 2024
SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
19 July 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 62 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 17 and 26 June 2024, aggregate activity continued to pick up in the second quarter, amid increasing signs of a modest, consumption-led recovery. The outlook for investment remained subdued, however, with uncertainty still high. Price growth was moderate and continued to be stronger in services than in industry. Wage growth was expected to slow further next year, while still compensating to some extent for past inflation.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
16 July 2024
EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
Annexes
16 July 2024
EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related
15 July 2024
SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
12 July 2024
LEGAL ACT
Annexes
12 July 2024
LEGAL ACT
10 July 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 July 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2951
Details
Abstract
Using granular data from the European corporate credit register, we examine how increases in macroprudential capital buffer requirements since the pandemic have affected bank lending behaviour in the euro area. Our findings reveal that, for the average bank, the buffer requirement increases did not have a statistically significant impact on lending to non-financial corporations. Furthermore, while we document relatively slower loan growth for banks with less capital headroom, also these banks did not decrease lending in absolute terms in response to higher requirements. These findings are robustin various specifications and emerge for both loan growth at the bank-firm level and the propensity to establish new bank-firm relationships. At the firm level, we document some heterogeneity depending on firm type and firm size. Firms with a single bank relationship and small and micro enterprises experienced a relative reduction in lending following buffer increases, although substitution effects mitigated real effects at the firm level. Overall, the results suggest that the pronounced macroprudential tightening since late 2021 did not exert substantial negative effects on credit supply.Hence, activating releasable capital buffers at an early stage of the cycle appears to be a robust policy strategy, since the costs of doing so are expected to be low.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
9 July 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2950
Details
Abstract
We match granular supervisory and credit register data to assess the implications of banks’ exposure to interest rate risk on the monetary policy transmission to bank lending supply in the euro area. We exploit the largest and swiftest increase in interest rates since the creation of the euro and find that banks with a higher exposure to interest rate risk, i.e., with a larger duration gap after accounting for hedging, curtailed corporate lending more than their peers. Ceteris paribus, greater interest rate risk entails closer supervisory scrutiny and potential capital surcharges in the short term, and lower expected profitability and capital accumulation in the medium to long term. We then proceed to dissect banks’ credit allocation and find that banks with higher net duration reshuffled their loan portfolio away from long-term loans in an attempt to limit the increase in interest rate risk and targetedtheir lending contraction to small and micro firms. Firms exposed to banks with a larger exposure to interest rate risk were unable to fully rebalance their borrowing needs with other lenders, thus experiencing a relatively larger decrease in total borrowing during the monetary tightening episode.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
8 July 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
1 July 2024
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
28 June 2024
GOVERNING COUNCIL STATEMENT
27 June 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 352
Details
Abstract
The 2019 revision to the Capital Requirements Directive allowed the systemic risk buffer to be applied on a sectoral basis in the European Union. Since then an increasing number of countries have implemented the new tool, primarily to address vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector. To inform and foster a consistent understanding and application of the buffer, this paper proposes two specific methodologies. First, an indicator-based approach which provides an aggregate measure of cyclical vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector and can signal a potential need to activate a sectoral buffer to address them. Second, a model-based approach following a stress test rationale simulating mortgage loan losses under adverse conditions, which can be used as a starting point for calibrating a sectoral buffer. Besides these methodological contributions, the paper conceptually discusses the interaction between the sectoral buffer and other prudential requirements and instruments, ex ante and ex post policy impact assessment, and factors guiding the possible release of the buffer. Finally, the paper considers possible future applications of sectoral buffer requirements for other types of sectoral vulnerabilities, for example in relation to commercial real estate, exposures to non-financial corporations or climate-related risks.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
27 June 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 120
Details
Abstract
Large-scale asset purchases can impact the price of securities either directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio rebalancing by private investors. We quantify both the direct impact and that of portfolio rebalancing, emphasising the role of investor heterogeneity. We use proprietary security-level data on asset holdings of different investors. We measure the direct impact at security level, finding that it is smaller for securities predominantly held by more price-elastic investors, i.e. funds and banks. Comparing securities at the 90th and 10th percentile of the investor elasticity distribution, the price impact of central bank purchases on the securities held by more price-elastic investors is only two-thirds as large. To assess the portfolio rebalancing effects, we construct a novel shift-share instrument. With this, we measure investors’ quasi-exogenous exposure to central bank purchases, based on their holdings of eligible securities before the quantitative easing (QE) programme was announced. We show that funds and banks sell eligible securities to the central bank and rebalance their portfolios towards ineligible securities, with those investors more exposed to central bank purchases ex ante engaging in more rebalancing. Using detailed holdings data for mutual funds, we estimate that for each euro of proceeds from selling securities to the central bank, the average fund allocates 88 cents to ineligible assets and 12 cents to other eligible assets that the central bank did not buy in that time period. The price of ineligible securities held by more exposed funds increases compared with those held by less exposed funds, underscoring the fact that the portfolio rebalancing channel is at work.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
26 June 2024
CONVERGENCE REPORT

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Διευκόλυνση οριακής χρηματοδότησης 4,50 %
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Διευκόλυνση αποδοχής καταθέσεων 3,75 %
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