Digitaler Euro
Das Eurosystem bereitet sich auf die mögliche Einführung eines digitalen Euro vor – den „digitalen Zwilling“ unseres Bargelds.
RECHENSCHAFTSPFLICHT
25. September 2026
Anhörung vor dem Europäischen Parlament
Präsidentin Christine Lagarde wird am Montag, 28. September vor dem Ausschuss für Wirtschaft und Währung des Europäischen Parlaments sprechen und Fragen der Ausschussmitglieder beantworten. Die Anhörung wird live als Webcast übertragen und beginnt um 16:00 Uhr MEZ.
PRESSEMITTEILUNG
24. September 2026
Direktoriumsmitglied Isabel Schnabel wechselt zum IWF
Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums sowie des EZB-Rats, hat heute bekanntgegeben, dass sie die EZB Anfang Januar 2027 verlassen wird, um eine leitende Funktion beim IWF zu übernehmen.
Pressemitteilung
DER EZB-BLOG
24. September 2026
Wie Reden die Märkte bewegen
Reden und Interviews geldpolitischer Entscheidungsträger können die Finanzmärkte ebenso stark bewegen wie geldpolitische Beschlüsse. Dieser EZB-Blogbeitrag zeigt, wie öffentliche Vorträge zudem helfen können, die Auswirkungen der Geldpolitik auf Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit im Euroraum zu messen.
Der EZB-Blog- 25 September 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 25 September 2026
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
- 24 September 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 23 September 2026
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +Annexes
- 23 September 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 22 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 22 September 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 21 September 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 September 2026
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at University of Lausanne in Lausanne, Switzerland
- 23 September 2026
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at ICMB Lecture in Geneva, Switzerland
- 23 September 2026
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Fondazione ResPublica in Milan, Italy
- 14 September 2026
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at “Hofburg im Dialog – Economy, Europe, Resilience” in Vienna, Austria
- 14 September 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the EuroRelated
- 23 July 2026
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 22 September 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Sébastien Ruche on 15 September 2026
- 18 September 2026
- Interview with Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa on 16 September 2026
- 12 September 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Christophe Lalay and Maxime Mainguet on 12 September 2026
- 24 August 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Lorenzo Torrisi on 10 August 2026
- 15 July 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Élisabeth Montaufray-Bureau on 10 July 2026
- 24 September 2026
- Speeches and interviews given by policymakers between ECB Governing Council meetings can move financial markets just as much as the monetary policy decisions themselves. This blog shows how they can also help measure the effects of monetary policy on euro area inflation and unemployment.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 15 September 2026
- Around 80% of euro area households do not own stocks or any other market-based financial instruments, unlike their counterparts in the United States. This blog post examines the barriers that keep many Europeans from investing and explores ways to broaden capital market participation.Details
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G51 : Financial Economics
- 2 September 2026
- Synthetic securitisation can free up bank capital. But does that mean banks lend more to firms? This ECB Blog post explores the effects of loan securitisation. We find that banks that issue synthetic securitisations lend marginally more, but also tend to pay more dividends.Details
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 1 September 2026
- The drivers of the recent rise in inflation are different from those of the pandemic-era surge. This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles. These differences are key to explaining why monetary policy responses differ.Details
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 31 August 2026
- US tech giants are increasingly tapping the euro area bond market to fund their investments. The ECB Blog investigates the consequences for this market and the potential for these developments to reshape it.Details
- JEL Code
- O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
- 25 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3290Details
- Abstract
- Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent mixture VAR with endogenous state probabilities and heteroskedastic shock identification, complemented by sparse sign and narrative restrictions. Applied to the euro area and U.S., the framework addresses a central policy question following the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war: do geopolitical shocks imply a return to the risk profile observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or is this time different? Results show that shocks differ not only in their effects on expected outcomes, but also in how they reshape scenario probabilities, tail risks, and transitions into high-volatility states.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C34 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETINEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- EU Member States have committed to substantially increasing defence spending in the coming years. According to Eurosystem staff baseline projections, defence spending – particularly on investment – is a notable factor supporting euro area growth over the short and medium term. Inflation effects are projected to be limited, though price pressures may increase over time. This is especially likely if supply cannot catch up with increased demand or personnel spending continues to dominate in line with past trends, as shown in an empirical analysis for the 27 EU Member States over 1999-2025. The composition of defence spending matters for both short and longer-term growth, with an increase in defence research and development (R&D) key to delivering long-run productivity gains. Illustrative simulations show that catching up to US levels of defence R&D could lift output and, additionally, encourage private sector defence R&D that could raise productivity growth.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2026, from 6 May to 28 July.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box extends the Macro-Finance Financial Conditions Index (FCI) framework, originally developed for the euro area, to the United States. The analysis finds close linkages between US and euro area financial conditions, with risk assets playing a dominant role in the transmission of US shocks to euro area financial markets. In particular, changes in market expectations for the stance of US monetary policy affect euro area financial conditions through global risk-asset repricing, even when the ECB’s own policy stance remains unchanged. The findings highlight the importance of spillovers from the United States in shaping euro area financial conditions.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents the latest EUROPOP 2025 population projections for the euro area, documents the revisions compared with the EUROPOP 2023 projections and discusses the economic implications. The latest population outlook is more positive in the medium-run (until 2050) because of stronger net inward migration, which tempers the increase in age-related fiscal expenditure while boosting long-term economic growth. However, in the second half of the century the population is projected to decrease more strongly than previously projected as a result of lower fertility. This will have the opposite effect on public finances and long-term growth.
- JEL Code
- J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
- 24 September 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 146Details
- Abstract
- Cross-border payments are often slow and costly with many regions underserved by current arrangements. In line with the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-border Payments, several countries and regions, including the euro area, are working to interlink their domestic fast payment systems as a way to improve speed, cost and transparency. Econometric evidence suggests that countries with interlinked systems trade about 4% more with each other – around half of the effect of a trade agreement and a quarter of the effect of a common currency. The trade gains from interlinking fast payment systems are larger in regions with high cross-border payment costs and for systems that allow the settlement of wholesale transactions.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 23 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Europe’s competitiveness challenge is increasingly recognised as a scale-up challenge. Firms expanding across the Single Market continue to face regulatory burdens and legal fragmentation throughout their life cycle, increasing the cost and complexity of cross-border operations. This article examines how these barriers affect the ability of firms to scale up and assesses the extent to which the European Commission’s proposal for an optional European corporate form (EU Inc.) could help firms. By introducing a harmonised company law framework, its proposal has the potential to reduce transaction costs, improve legal certainty and facilitate cross-border investment, complementing the objectives of the Single Market and the savings and investments union. Still, EU Inc. is not a silver bullet. Its effectiveness will depend on its final design, take-up by firms, consistent implementation across Member States and complementary progress in capital market integration and reducing broader regulatory fragmentation.
- JEL Code
- K22 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Business and Securities Law
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
- 22 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box discusses the heterogeneous impact on EU countries of China’s rapid industrial transformation, which is reshaping global trade patterns. The similarity between the export structures of China and several EU countries has increased substantially since 2019, particularly in machinery and transport equipment, and is most pronounced in manufacturing-intensive economies, such as Germany. At the same time, China’s goods imports have become less aligned with EU export structures, illustrating China’s decreased reliance on European industrial goods. These developments have coincided with losses in EU export market shares in sectors and destinations where Chinese competition has intensified, although EU exports have remained more resilient in higher-value-added sectors, especially in the US market. These findings illustrate that there are differences across EU countries and sectors in terms of their exposure to China’s industrial rise, reflecting differences in specialisation and integration into global value chains, with implications for policy priorities at the EU and national levels.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 22 September 2026
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
- 22 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3289Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies whether securitisation affects monetary policy transmission via banks. Using granular loan-level data from the euro area, we show that banks actively engaged in securitisation adjust credit supply more strongly in response to monetary policy shocks than a matched sample of non-securitising banks. This is because securitisation expands banks’ lending capacity, but by increasing reliance on investors whose required returns and risk appetite are more sensitive to monetary policy conditions. Following a monetary tightening, these investors demand higher compensation and reduce their exposure to securitised assets, leading securitising banks to contract lending more than other banks. Effects are stronger for loans more likely to be securitised — i.e., to safer borrowers with longer maturities — and are primarily driven by synthetic securitisations, which provide additional capital relief through Significant Risk Transfers. Firms exposed to securitising banks cannot fully substitute tighter loan supply through existing or new bank relationships.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 22 September 2026
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 32Details
- Abstract
- Artificial intelligence is transforming financial markets by enabling investors and intermediaries to extract more information from increasingly abundant data through advances in algorithms and computing power. We discuss how AI changes information production and decision-making, labor demand, and financial intermediation, with a particular emphasis on securities markets. We then survey the implications of this transformation for market efficiency, competition, informational frictions, and financial stability.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 22 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses developments in US equity markets during the recent AI boom and highlights recent signs of heightened price differentiation within the broader equity market rally. It shows that, over the past years, US equity valuations have been bolstered by strong realised and expected earnings tied to the AI boom. Risk appetite in US equity markets has been strong, with compensation for equity risk falling to relatively low levels during this period. These factors have supported resilience in US stock markets despite pressures from higher longer-term interest rates and geopolitical headwinds. However, a note of caution is warranted, as market sentiment can be subject to sudden shifts and there is heightened risk price differentiation among the tails of higher-risk technology firms within the AI-driven rally.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
- 21 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- In the Survey on the Access to Financing of Enterprises (SAFE) for the second quarter of 2026, firms were asked about their exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, how the conflict has influenced their expectations, and what coping strategies they have adopted. It found that exposure to the conflict is higher for small and medium-sized enterprises, for exporters and in the trade sector. The conflict has primarily affected firms’ expectations for nominal variables and demand, while the impact on expectations for other real variables is small. The main coping strategies reported by firms include seeking alternative suppliers of energy, raw materials and components, as well as accelerating investment in energy efficiency.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 21 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3288Details
- Abstract
- Theory suggests inflation risk premia are positive when supply shocks are expected to dominate demand shocks and negative otherwise. We measure these beliefs using demand and supply narratives derived from inflation news via Causality Extraction, which identifies causal relations between inflation and its drivers. Using narrative extracted from inflation news from the Financial Times for the Euro Area and the Wall Street Journal for the US, our key variable, NetDemand, measures the difference in articles attributing inflation to demand versus supply factors. Consistent with asset pricing theory, inflation risk premia are inversely related to NetDemand across maturities in both regions. This relationship holds even after controlling for the composite PMI and VIX, strengthens with risk aversion in the US and inflation volatility in the Euro Area, and is not subsumed by other measures of demand and supply contributions to inflation, views of professional forecasters, or narratives obtained from LLMs.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 21 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3287Details
- Abstract
- We construct a novel bank-level index that quantifies fragmentation in the capital buffer framework faced by euro area banks. Defined at quarterly frequency, it measures fragmentation by looking at the number of simultaneously active buffers, their geographical dispersion, and the frequency of buffer rate changes within the preceding year. The index is orthogonalised with respect to the level of capital requirements, bank size, and the financial cycle, thus controlling for these factors when measuring fragmentation as defined above. We then show that a one standard deviation increase in the index is associated with about 36 basis points higher capital headroom and around 50 basis points lower corporate lending growth within existing bank-firm relationships. We interpret these results as suggestive evidence that banks facing more fragmented buffer requirements retain extra capital and adjust lending more cautiously to account for higher uncertainty with respect to future adjustments in buffer requirements.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The sharp rise in energy prices in the first half of 2026 evoked memories of the 2021-22 energy price shock. However, the 2026 energy price shock has so far been smaller in scale. This reflects more limited growth in wholesale gas prices and an increased share of electricity generated from renewables, which has dampened the pass-through of gas prices to wholesale electricity prices. The transmission of wholesale prices to retail prices has also changed, becoming somewhat faster for gas prices. These developments imply that shifts in wholesale gas prices may be feeding through to HICP gas inflation somewhat more swiftly than in the past, while having a lesser impact on HICP electricity inflation. At the same time, both the role of gas prices in wholesale electricity prices and the transmission of wholesale prices to retail prices remain uneven across countries.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q42 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Alternative Energy Sources
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 18 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3286Details
- Abstract
- Using exogenous variation generated by the creation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) in the euro area, we find that relative to firms borrowing from banks subject to national supervision, firms borrowing from banks subject to supranational supervision reduce their share of intangible assets. This effect does not pre-date the supervisory reform and it does not obtain in non-SSM jurisdictions. The reallocation of investment away from intangible assets is stronger for small and young firms and appears to be driven by a short-term reduction in lending and a persistent increase in collateral standards.
- JEL Code
- D25 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 18 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3285Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines how bank capital conditions the effect of competition on credit risk in lending markets, informing the debate on banking competition, deregulation, and risk-based supervision. Using ECB supervisory data for 146 euro area banks across 19 countries over 2020Q2–2025Q3, we analyze whether this relationship depends on banks’ regulatory capital positions. We find that greater market power is associated with higher subsequent credit risk, while stronger capitalization is associated with lower risk. Crucially, competition reduces credit risk primarily for well-capitalized banks, whereas the effect is weak or absent for banks with lower capital ratios. By aligning the measurement of competition and risk with the pricing-based mechanism, the paper provides a direct empirical test of the borrower-risk channel and offers an explanation for mixed evidence in the competition–risk literature. The results highlight the importance of considering the interaction between competition and prudential capital requirements when assessing financial stability.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 17 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3284Details
- Abstract
- We develop a direct approach to incorporating survey density forecasts into model-based predictive distributions. Histogram forecasts from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) carry rich nonparametric information about expected outcomes, but existing methods rely on moment-based approximations that discard part of it. We instead tilt entropically to the histogram probabilities themselves, matching them exactly. After reformulating the single-histogram problem, we derive a new analytic characterization of the multiple-histogram case, solved by Iterative Proportional Fitting and applicable to simulated densities from essentially any model. Applying the method to real-time forecasts from a Bayesian VAR with time-varying volatility, we find that tilting to SPF histograms substantially improves accuracy relative to the model’s baseline forecasts, especially during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. The gains extend beyond the variables the SPF targets, improving forecasts for other variables in the system as well.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Zinssätze
| Einlagefazilität | 2,50 % |
| Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte (fester Zinssatz) | 2,65 % |
| Spitzenrefinanzierungsfazilität | 2,90 % |
Inflationsrate
Mehr zur InflationWechselkurse
| USD | US dollar | 1.1403 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 179.70 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86045 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9445 |
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