Luc Laeven

Research

Division
Current Position: Director General
Fields of interest: Financial Economics,International Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
Email: luc.laeven@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Other current responsibilities: 2019-
Member of Advisory Board of Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics; 2017-
Member of Research Advisory Council of SAFE; 2016-
Chair of Steering Committee of Euro Area Business Cycle Network; 2016-
Co-Editor, International Journal of Central Banking; 2015-
Board member of TalentNomics; 2015-
Member of Scientific Advisory Council of Bundesbank Research Data and Service Center; 2015-
Chair of Research Coordination Committee; 2013-
Associate Editor, Journal of International Money and Finance; 2013-
Associate Editor, Journal of Financial Intermediation; 2012-
Associate Editor, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; 2009-
Professor of Finance, Tilburg University; 2009-
Research Fellow, CEPR, London
Education: 1999-2001
PhD, Economics, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 1998-1999
MPhil (no degree), London School of Economics; 1996-1997
Masters in International Finance, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 1992-1996
MSc Econometrics, Tilburg University, The Netherlands
Professional experience: 2015-
Director General - Directorate General Research, European Central Bank; 2006-2015
Lead Economist/Deputy Division Chief - Research Department, International Monetary Fund; 2001-2006
(Senior) Financial Economist - Financial Sector Department, The World Bank; 1997-1998
Investment Analyst - Asset Management, ABN Amro Bank, Amsterdam/London
Awards: 2014
NYU-Fordham-RPI Rising Star in Finance Award; 1998
Full-tuition University Fellowship, London School of Economics; 1997
Full-tuition University Fellowship, University of Amsterdam
Teaching experience: 2008
Bank Regulation (Executive Education), Universitat Pompeu Fabra; 2007
Banking, Regulation and Financial Crises (PhD level) - Columbia University, New York, USA; 2004
Advanced Topics in Corporate Finance (PhD level), Tilburg University

ECB publications

2 May 2011

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1337

Who invests in home equity to exempt wealth from bankruptcy?

English

Abstract: Homestead exemptions to personal bankruptcy allow households to retain their home equity up to a limit determined at the state level. Households that may experience bankruptcy thus have an incentive to bias their portfolios towards home equity. Using US household data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation for the period 1996-2006, we find that especially households with low net worth maintain a larger share of their wealth as home equity if a larger homestead exemption applies. This home equity bias is also more pronounced if the household head is in poor health, increasing the chance of bankruptcy on account of unpaid medical bills. The bias is further stronger for households with mortgage finance, shorter house tenures, and younger household heads, which taken together reflect households that face more financial uncertainty.
JEL Code: G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
K35 : Law and Economics→Other Substantive Areas of Law→Personal Bankruptcy Law
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand

20 April 2016

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1892

A lost generation? Education decisions and employment outcomes during the U.S. housing boom-bust cycle of the 2000s

English

Abstract: We exploit regional variation in US house price fluctuations during the boom-bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young Americans' choices related to education and employment. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce, lowering skill formation. During the bust years, the young, especially those without higher education, were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand

10 May 2016

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1903

Bank leverage and monetary policy's risk-taking channel: evidence from the United States

English

Abstract: We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on banks
JEL Code: E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages

25 May 2016

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1910

Waking up from the American dream: on the experience of young Americans during the housing boom of the 2000s

English

Abstract: We exploit regional variations in house price fluctuations in the United States during the early to mid-2000s to study the impact of the housing boom on young Americans' choices related to home ownership, household formation, and fertility. We also introduce a novel instrument for changes in house prices based on the predetermined industrial structure of the local economy. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, the youngest households were substantially less likely to purchase residential property, to be married, and to have a child, both in 2006 and in 2011.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand

3 July 2018

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2166

Credit shocks, employment protection, and growth: firm-level evidence from Spain

English

Abstract: We offer new evidence on the real effects of credit shocks in the presence of employment protection regulations by exploiting a unique provision in Spanish labor laws: dismissal rules are less stringent for Spanish firms with fewer than 50 employees, lowering the cost of hiring new workers. Using a new dataset, we find that during the financial crisis, healthy firms with fewer than 50 employees borrowing from troubled banks grew faster in sectors where capital and labor were sufficiently substitutable. This result does not obtain when we use a different cut-off for Spain or the same cut-off for firms in Germany. Our evidence suggests that labor market flexibility can dampen the negative effect of credit shocks by allowing firms to keep growing by substituting labor for capital.
JEL Code: G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J80 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor Standards: National and International→General
D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General

24 September 2018

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2177

Managing the sovereign-bank nexus

English

Abstract: This paper identifies the various channels that give rise to a “sovereign-bank nexus” whereby the financial health of banks and sovereigns is intertwined. We find that banks and sovereigns are linked by three interacting channels: banks hold large amounts of sovereign debt; banks are protected by government guarantees; and the health of banks and governments affect and is affected by economic activity. Evidence suggests that all three channels are relevant. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.
JEL Code: E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Network: Discussion papers

14 November 2018

RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 52

After the credit squeeze: how labour market flexibility can strengthen firm growth and employment

English

Abstract: How beneficial is labour market flexibility ¬– for instance, the ability to hire and fire workers – for firm growth? And how does such flexibility interact with a firm’s ability to obtain bank credit? This article provides evidence that less rigid employment protection benefits firms during times of scarce credit. We study the performance of credit constrained Spanish firms during the financial crisis of 2008-09, exploiting a firm-size-specific labour regulation that imposes more stringent employment protection on firms with more than 50 employees. We find that Spanish firms with fewer than 50 employees operating in sectors in which labour and capital are close substitutes grew faster during the financial crisis when exposed to a negative credit shock than similarly credit constrained but larger firms. This effect is more pronounced for firms that were more productive before the crisis, suggesting that flexible employment protection laws benefit otherwise healthy firms that are credit constrained, by enabling them to substitute labour for capital and continue growing.
JEL Code: G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J80 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Labor Standards: National and International→General
D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General

15 February 2019

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2241

Debt overhang, rollover risk, and corporate investment: evidence from the European crisis

English

Abstract: We quantify the role of financial factors behind the sluggish post-crisis performance of European firms. We use a firm-bank-sovereign matched database to identify separate roles for firm and bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from changes in sovereign risk and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms with higher debt levels and a higher share of short-term debt reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms linked to weak banks with exposures to sovereign risk, signifying increased rollover risk. These financial channels explain about 60% of the decline in aggregate corporate investment.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity

16 April 2019

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2266

Collateral booms and information depletion

English

Abstract: We develop a new theory of information production during credit booms. In our model, entrepreneurs need credit to undertake investment projects, some of which enable them to divert resources towards private consumption. Lenders can protect themselves from such diversion in two ways: collateralization and costly screening, which generates durable information about projects. In equilibrium, the collateralization-screening mix depends on the value of aggregate collateral. High collateral values raise investment and economic activity, but they also raise collateralization at the expense of screening. This has important dynamic implications. During credit booms driven by high collateral values (e.g. real estate booms), the economy accumulates physical capital but depletes information about investment projects. As a result, collateral-driven booms end in deep crises and slow recoveries: when booms end, investment is constrained both by the lack of collateral and by the lack of information on existing investment projects, which takes time to rebuild. We provide new empirical evidence using US firm-level data in support of the model's main mechanism.
JEL Code: E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
D80 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→General

16 April 2019

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2265

The gender promotion gap: evidence from central banking

English

Abstract: We examine gender differences in career progression and promotions in central banking, a stereotypical male-dominated occupation, using confidential anonymized personnel data from the European Central Bank (ECB) during the period 2003-2017. A wage gap emerges between men and women within a few years of hiring, despite broadly similar entry conditions in terms of salary levels and other observables. We also find that women are less likely to be promoted to a higher salary band up until 2010 when the ECB issued a public statement supporting diversity and took several measures to support gender balance. Following this change, the promotion gap disappears. The gender promotion gap prior to this policy change is partly driven by the presence of children. Using 2012-2017 data on promotion applications and decisions, we explore the promotion process in depth, and confirm that during this most recent period women are as likely to be promoted as men. This results from a lower probability of women to apply for promotion, combined with a higher probability of women to be selected conditional on having applied. Following promotion, women perform better in terms of salary progression, suggesting that the higher probability to be selected is based on merit, not positive discrimination.
JEL Code: J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J41 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Particular Labor Markets→Labor Contracts
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs

7 June 2019

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2288

The procyclicality of banking: evidence from the euro area

English

Abstract: Loan loss provisions in the euro area are negatively related to GDP growth, i.e., they are procyclical. Loan loss provisions tend to be more procyclical at larger and better capitalized banks. The procyclicality of loan loss provisions can explain about two-thirds of the variation of bank capitalization over the business cycle. We estimate that provisioning procyclicality in the euro area is about twice as large as in other advanced economies. This difference reflects a larger procyclicality of provisioning in euro area countries already prior to euro adoption, and the divergent growth experiences of euro area countries following the global financial crisis.
JEL Code: G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General

14 October 2019

RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 63

The gender promotion gap: what holds back female economists from making a career in central banking?

English

Abstract: The underrepresentation of women in economics is perhaps nowhere as visible as in central banks. This Research Bulletin article uses anonymised personnel data to analyse the career progression of men and women at the European Central Bank (ECB). Women were less likely to be promoted up until 2010, when the ECB issued a statement supporting diversity and took measures to support gender balance. Following this change, the promotion gap disappeared. This masked a lower probability of women applying for promotion, which is partially explained by an aversion to competing, combined with a higher probability of being selected after having applied. Following promotion, women performed better in terms of salary progression, suggesting that the higher probability of being selected is based on merit, not positive discrimination. Thus, organisations such as the ECB should provide training and services that target the competition-related reasons that discourage women from applying for promotion.
JEL Code: D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
J13 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Fertility, Family Planning, Child Care, Children, Youth
L20 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→General
M50 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Personnel Economics→General

21 April 2020

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2397

Growth-and-risk trade-off

English

Abstract: We study the effects of credit over the business cycle, distinguishing between expansions and contractions. We find that there is a growth and risk trade-off in the pace of credit growth over the business cycle. While rapid credit growth tends to be followed by deeper recessions, we also find that credit growth has a positive impact on the duration of expansions. This poses a trade-off for the policymaker: Limiting the buildup of financial risk to avoid a deep recession can negatively affect the cumulation of economic growth during the expansion. We show that intermediate levels of credit growth maximize long-term growth while limiting volatility. Macroprudential policies should be used to manage this growth and risk trade-off, striking a balance between allowing expansions to last longer and avoiding deep recessions.
JEL Code: C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
Network: Research Task Force (RTF)

14 May 2020

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2409

Loan types and the bank lending channel

English

Abstract: Using credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash-flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit dynamics and bank lending channels vary across these loan types. Moreover, aggregate credit supply shocks previously identified in the literature appear to be driven by individual loan types. The effects of monetary policy and the effects of the financial crisis propagating through banks’ balance sheets are primarily driven by cash-flow loans, whereas asset-based credit is mostly insensitive to these types of effects.
JEL Code: E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages

3 July 2020

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2438

Financial intermediation and technology: What’s old, what’s new?

English

Abstract: We study the effects of technological change on financial intermediation, distinguishing between innovations in information (data collection and processing) and communication (relationships and distribution). Both follow historic trends towards an increased use of hard information and less in-person interaction, which are accelerating rapidly. We point to more recent innovations, such as the combination of data abundance and artificial intelligence, and the rise of digital platforms. We argue that in particular the rise of new communication channels can lead to the vertical and horizontal disintegration of the traditional bank business model. Specialized providers of financial services can chip away activities that do not rely on access to balance sheets, while platforms can interject themselves between banks and customers. We discuss limitations to these challenges, and the resulting policy implications.
JEL Code: G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
Network: Discussion papers

16 December 2020

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2504

Monetary and macroprudential policy complementarities: evidence from European credit registers

English

Abstract: We document that there are strong complementarities between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in shaping the evolution of bank credit. We use a unique loan-level dataset comprising multiple credit registers from several European countries and different types of loans, including corporate loans, mortgages and consumer credit. We merge this rich information with borrower and bank-level characteristics and with indicators summarising macroprudential and monetary policy actions. We find that monetary policy easing increases both bank lending and lending to riskier borrowers, especially when there is a more accommodative macroprudential environment. These effects are stronger for less capitalised banks. Results apply to both household and firm lending, but they are stronger for consumer and corporate loans than for mortgages. Finally, for firms, the overall increase in bank lending induced by an accommodative policy mix is stronger for more (ex ante) productive firms than firms with high ex ante credit risk, except for banks with low capital.
JEL Code: E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Network: Research Task Force (RTF)

22 January 2021

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2511

Do bank insiders impede equity issuances?

English

Abstract: We evaluate the role of insider ownership in shaping banks’ equity issuances in response to the global financial crisis. We construct a unique dataset on the ownership structure of U.S. banks and their equity issuances and discover that greater insider ownership leads to less equity issuances. Several tests are consistent with the view that bank insiders are reluctant to reduce their private benefits of control by diluting their ownership through equity issuances. Given the connection between bank equity and lending, the results stress that ownership structure can shape the resilience of banks—and hence the entire economy—to aggregate shocks.
JEL Code: G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation

12 May 2021

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2548

Investing in crises

English

Abstract: We investigate asset returns around banking crises in 44 advanced and emerging economies from 1960 to 2018. In contrast to the view that buying assets during banking crises is a profitable long-run strategy, we find returns of equity and other asset classes generally underperform after banking crises. While prices are depressed during crises and partially recover after acute stress ends, consistent with theories of fire sales and intermediary-based asset pricing, we argue that investors do not fully anticipate the consequences of debt overhang, which result in lower long-run dividends. Our results on bank stock underperformance suggest that government-funded bank recapitalizations can often lead to substantial taxpayer losses.
JEL Code: G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G41 : Financial Economics

External publications

2019

International Journal of Central Banking

Bank Capital: A Seawall Approach