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Enrique Moral-Benito

12 August 2014
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1712
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Abstract
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early warning systems. Finally we draw policy conclusions for the setting?up and application of a system of early warning indicators for fiscal stress.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
20 April 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1890
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Abstract
We empirically analyze the impact of public employment and wages' shocks on private labor market outcomes by studying if policies operate differently in periods of economic slack than in normal times. We use local projection methods and focus on the Spanish and euro area aggregate cases. We find that the degree of economic slack is key to determine: (i) if public employment crowds-out private employment, and (ii) the degree and extent of public wage influence on the private sector. In addition, we find that the specific features of the economy also count. In the case of Spain, when fiscal consolidation is implemented at times of economic distress, the contractionary effects of public employment cuts appear more damaging for the economy than those of public wage cuts, while the opposite happens for the euro area as a whole. These differences are likely to be related to specific features of the labor markets in both cases.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
22 February 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2245
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Abstract
How do housing bubbles affect other economic sectors? We show that in the presence of collateral constraints, a bubble initially raises housing credit demand and crowds out credit to non-housing firms. If the bubble lasts, however, housing credit repayments raise banks’ net worth and expand credit supply, so that crowding-out eventually gives way to crowding-in. This is consistent with evidence from the recent Spanish housing bubble. Initially, credit growth of non-housing firms was lower at banks with higher bubble exposure, and firms relying on these banks exhibited lower credit and output growth. During the bubble’s last years, these effects reversed.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
14 May 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2409
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Abstract
Using credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash-flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit dynamics and bank lending channels vary across these loan types. Moreover, aggregate credit supply shocks previously identified in the literature appear to be driven by individual loan types. The effects of monetary policy and the effects of the financial crisis propagating through banks’ balance sheets are primarily driven by cash-flow loans, whereas asset-based credit is mostly insensitive to these types of effects.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages