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Meyler, Aidan

Economics

Division

Prices & Costs

Current position

Senior Lead Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,
International Economics,
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

Email

aidan.meyler@ecb.europa.eu

Education
  • 1998-1998
    Diploma in Business Strategy, Irish Management Institute, Dublin Ireland
  • 1993-1995
    M Litt in Economics, Trinity College, Dublin Ireland
  • 1989-1993
    BA in Economics, Trinity College, Dublin Ireland
Professional experience
  • 2019-
    Senior Lead Economist - Prices and Costs Division, Directorate Economic Developments, European Central Bank
  • 2016-2019
    Adviser to the ECB Permanent Representative at the IMF, European Central Bank
  • 2014-2016
    Principal Economist - Prices and Costs Division, Directorate Economic Developments, European Central Bank
  • 2009-2014
    Principal Economist - Convergence and Structural Unit, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
  • 2005-2009
    Principal Economist - Euro Area Macroeconomics Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
  • 2001-2005
    Senior Economist - Euro Area Macroeconomics Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
  • 1997-2001
    Economist - Research Department, Central Bank of Ireland
  • 1995-1997
    Industrial Policy Analyst - Forfás (Irish Industrial Development Authority)
Teaching experience
  • 1993-1995
    Teaching Assistant - Intermediate Macroeconomics Prof McAleese and Prof O'Toole, Trinity College, Dublin Ireland
Awards
  • 2015
    Outstanding paper award to "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?" for papers published in the International Journal of Forecasting in the period 2012-2013
  • 2008
    Isaac Kerstenetzky Award for "Growth and unemployment rate expectations in the Euro Area: empirical evidence from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters"

ECB Working Paper Series

2020
Meyler, Aidan
Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance?
No 2371
2015
Meyler, Aidan, Grothe, Magdalena
Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?
No 1865
2010
Kenny, Geoff, Genre, Véronique, Meyler, Aidan, Timmermann, Allan
Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?
No 1277

ECB Occasional Paper Series

2017
Arioli, Rodolfo, Bates, Colm, Dieden, Heinz Christian, Duca, Ioana, Friz, Roberta, Gayer, Christian, Kenny, Geoff, Meyler, Aidan, Pavlova, Iskra
EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation
No 186
2012
Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB

Druant, Martine, Vanhala, Juuso, Ktoris, Michalis, Jarvis, Valerie, Bouchet, Muriel, Budnik, Katarzyna, Childs, Claire, Kuttner, Nicole, Spooner, Magdalena, De Mulder, Jan, Bonthuis, Boele, Stiglbauer, Alfred, Linehan, Suzanne, Schaumann, Heidi, Nicolitsas, Daphne, Radowski, Daniel, Duarte, Cláudia Filipa, Maria, José R., Lamo, Ana, Hoeberichts, Marco M., Aranki, Ted, Sonderhof, Katja, Solcanska, Helena, Gertler, Pavel, Mogliani, Matteo, Veiga, Cindy, Meyler, Aidan, Fraisse, Henri, Zizza, Roberta, Sapiano, Ian, Parlevliet, Jante, Zerafa, Sandra, Izquierdo, Mario, Anderton, Robert, Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, Soosaar, Orsolya, Viilmann, Natalja, Jesenko, Manca, Puente, Sergio, Fernandez, Cristina, Verdugo, Gregory, Momferatou, Daphne, Serafini, Roberta, Ramskogler, Paul

Euro area labour markets and the crisis
No 138
2011
Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB

Kivistö, Jarkko, Bardet-Fremann, Pierre-Michel, Panagiotou, Stelios, Vladova, Zornitsa, Tsalinski, Tsvetan, Page, Adrian, Komzakova, Magdalena, Kaarup, Ri, Ervens, Sabine, Berardi, Nicoletta, Ciapanna, Emanuela, Karma, Branislav, Gabrijelcic, Mateja, Cardoso, Fatima, Fritzer, Friedrich, Kieft, Jasper, Zefara, Sandra, Kapatais, Demetris, Rondinelli, Concetta, de los Llanos Matea, María, Hartmann, Christin, Sullivan, Claudia, Stahl, Harald, Álvarez, Luis J., Landau, Bettina, Mohr, Matthias, Vermeulen, Philip, Sevestre, Patrick, Lünnemann, Patrick, Cornille, David, Meyler, Aidan, Pace, Christopher, Jarvis, Valerie, Walch, Erik, Balfoussia, Hiona, Gattini, Luca, Linehan, Suzanne, Sondermann, David, Izquierdo, Mario, Anderton, Robert

Structural features of distributive trades and their impact on prices in the euro area
No 128
2010
Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB

Donoval, Milan, Gautier, Erwan, Nuño, Galo, Nakov, Anton, Jiménez, Noelia, de los Llanos Matea, María, Estrada, Ángel, Zioutou, Pinelopi, Bragoudakis, Zacharias, Weymes, Laura, O'Brien, Derry, Irac, Delphine, Maggiar, Nicolas, Faiella, Ivan, Car, Mikulas, Tepina, Monika, Amador, João, Breitenfellner, Andreas, Schotten, Guido, Micallef, Brian, Hubic, Amela, Bouchet, Muriel, Cleanthous, Lena, Venditti, Fabrizio, Slopek, Ulf, Hartmann, Christin, Landau, Bettina, Gattini, Luca, Fidora, Michael, Costantini, Riccardo, Consolo, Agostino, Beck, Roland, Sullivan, Claudia, Kelley, Sylvia, Meyler, Aidan, Strauch, Rolf, Lima, Ana, Lodge, David, Lombardi, Marco J., Cornille, David, Baugnet, Vanessa, Vasardani, Melina A., Spitzer, Martin, Soudan, Michel, Slavík, Michal, Skudelny, Frauke, Roma, Moreno, Mohr, Matthias, Mestre, Ricardo

Energy markets and the euro area macroeconomy
No 113
2007
Kenny, Geoff, Genre, Véronique, Bowles, Carlos, Friz, Roberta, Meyler, Aidan, Rautanen, Tuomas
The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience
No 59

ECB Economic Bulletin Article

2019
de Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert, Dimitrova, Ivelina, Falck, Elisabeth, Henkel, Lukas, Meyler, Aidan
Twenty years of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Journal publications

2018
Grothe, M. and Meyler, A.
Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?
International Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 9(1), pp. 171-188
2013
Genre, V., Kenny, G., Meyler, A. and Timmermann, A.
Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?
International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 29(1), pp. 108-121
2010
Bowles, C., Friz, R., Genre, V., Kenny, G., Meyler, A. and Rautanen, T.
An Evaluation of the Growth and Unemployment Forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 2010/2
2009
Meyler, A.
The pass through of oil prices into euro area consumer liquid fuel prices in an environment of high and volatile oil prices
Energy Economics, Vol. 31(6), pp. 867-881
2000
Meyler, A. and Strobl, E.
Job Generation and Regional Industrial Policy in Ireland
Economic and Social Studies, Vol. 31(2), pp. 111-128

Other publications

2016
Arioli, R., Bates, C., Dieden, H., Duca, I., Friz, R., Gayer, C., Kenny, G., Meyler, A. and Pavlova, I.
EU Consumers’ Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Evaluation
European Economy Discussion Papers, No. 38
1999
Quinn, T., Kenny, G. and Meyler, A.
Inflation Analysis: An Overview
Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Papers, 1/RT/99
Meyler, A.
A Statistical Measure Of Core Inflation
Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Papers, 2/RT/99
Meyler, A.
The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in a Small Open Economy: The Irish Context
Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Papers, 5/RT/99
1998
Meyler, A.
Technology and Foreign Direct Investment in Ireland
Department of Economics Trinity College Dublin Economics Technical Papers, 9810
Kenny, G., Meyler, A. and Quinn, T.
Bayesian VAR Models for Forecasting Irish Inflation
Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Papers, 4/RT/98
Meyler, A., Kenny, G. and Quinn, T.
Forecasting Irish inflation using ARIMA models
Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Papers, 3/RT/98
1997
Meyler, A. and Strobl, E.
Regional Employment Performance of Irish Industry, 1972-96: A Job Flow Analysis
Department of Economics Trinity College Dublin Economics Technical Papers, 979