Aidan Meyler

Economics

Division: Prices & Costs
Current Position: Senior Lead Economist
Fields of interest: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
Email: aidan.meyler@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Education: 1998-1998
Diploma in Business Strategy, Irish Management Institute, Dublin Ireland; 1993-1995
M Litt in Economics, Trinity College, Dublin Ireland; 1989-1993
BA in Economics, Trinity College, Dublin Ireland
Professional experience: 2019-
Senior Lead Economist - Prices and Costs Division, Directorate Economic Developments, European Central Bank; 2016-2019
Adviser to the ECB Permanent Representative at the IMF, European Central Bank; 2014-2016
Principal Economist - Prices and Costs Division, Directorate Economic Developments, European Central Bank; 2009-2014
Principal Economist - Convergence and Structural Unit, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank; 2005-2009
Principal Economist - Euro Area Macroeconomics Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank; 2001-2005
Senior Economist - Euro Area Macroeconomics Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank; 1997-2001
Economist - Research Department, Central Bank of Ireland; 1995-1997
Industrial Policy Analyst - Forfás (Irish Industrial Development Authority)
Awards: 2015
Outstanding paper award to "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?" for papers published in the International Journal of Forecasting in the period 2012-2013; 2008
Isaac Kerstenetzky Award for "Growth and unemployment rate expectations in the Euro Area: empirical evidence from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters"
Teaching experience: 1993-1995
Teaching Assistant - Intermediate Macroeconomics Prof McAleese and Prof O'Toole, Trinity College, Dublin Ireland

ECB publications

5 April 2007

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 59

The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience

English

Abstract: Eight years have passed since the European Central Bank (ECB) launched its Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The SPF asks a panel of approximately 75 forecasters located in the European Union (EU) for their short- to longer-term expectations for macroeconomic variables such as euro area inflation, growth and unemployment. This paper provides an initial assessment of the information content of this survey. First, we consider shorter-term (i.e., one- and two-year ahead rolling horizon) forecasts. The analysis suggests that, over the sample period, in common with other private and institutional forecasters, the SPF systematically under-forecast inflation but that there is less evidence of such systematic errors for GDP and unemployment forecasts. However, these findings, which generally hold regardless of whether one considers the aggregate SPF panel or individual responses, should be interpreted with caution given the relatively short sample period available for the analysis. Second, we consider SPF respondents
JEL Code: C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General

16 June 2010

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 113

Energy markets and the euro area macroeconomy

English

Abstract: This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the link between energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures and the role of monetary policy in reacting to such pressure requires a deeper look at the structure of the economy. Energy prices have presented a challenge for the Eurosystem, as the volatility of the energy component of consumer prices has been high since the creation of EMU. At the same time, a look back into the past may not necessarily be very informative for gauging the likely impact of energy price changes on overall inflation in the future. For instance, the reaction of HICP inflation to energy price fluctuations seems to have been more muted during the past decade than in earlier periods such as the 1970s.
JEL Code: E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
Network: Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network

8 December 2010

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1277

Combining the forecasts in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: can anything beat the simple average?

English

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the potential gains from alternative combinations of the surveyed forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our analysis encompasses a variety of methods including statistical combinations based on principal components analysis and trimmed means, performance-based weighting, least squares estimates of optimal weights as well as Bayesian shrinkage. We provide a pseudo real-time out-of-sample performance evaluation of these alternative combinations and check the sensitivity of the results to possible data-snooping bias. The latter robustness check is also informed using a novel real time meta selection procedure which is not subject to the data-snooping critique. For GDP growth and the unemployment rate, only few of the forecast combination schemes are able to outperform the simple equal-weighted average forecast. Conversely, for the inflation rate there is stronger evidence that more refined combinations can lead to improvement over this benchmark. In particular, for this variable, the relative improvement appears significant even controlling for data snooping bias.
JEL Code: C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods

30 September 2011

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 128

Structural features of distributive trades and their impact on prices in the euro area

English

Abstract: The distributive trades sector, which is primarily accounted for by wholesale and retail trade, is not only economically important in its own right, but also relevant to monetary policy. Ultimately, it is retailers who set the actual prices of most consumer goods. They are the main interface between producers of consumer goods and consumers, with around half of private consumption accounted for by retail trade. The
JEL Code: E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics

31 October 2012

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 138

Euro area labour markets and the crisis

English

Abstract: Between the start of the economic and financial crisis in 2008, and early 2010, almost four million jobs were lost in the euro area. Employment began to rise again in the first half of 2011, but declined once more at the end of that year and remains at around three million workers below the pre-crisis level. However, in comparison with the severity of the fall in GDP, employment adjustment has been relatively muted at the aggregate euro area level, mostly due to significant labour hoarding in several euro area countries. While the crisis has, so far, had a more limited or shorter-lived impact in some euro area countries, in others dramatic changes in employment and unemployment rates have been observed and, indeed, more recent data tend to show the effects of a re-intensification of the crisis. The main objectives of this report are: (a) to understand the notable heterogeneity in the adjustment observed across euro area labour markets, ascertaining the role of the various shocks, labour market institutions and policy responses in shaping countries
JEL Code: E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics

6 November 2015

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1865

Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative?

English

Abstract: This paper analyses the predictive power of market-based and survey-based inflation expectations for actual inflation. We use the data on inflation swaps and the forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the euro area and United States. The results show that both, market-based and survey-based measures have a non-negligible predictive power for inflation developments, as compared to statistical benchmark models. Therefore, for horizons of one and two years ahead, market-based and survey-based inflation expectations actually convey information on future inflation developments.
JEL Code: E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing

19 April 2017

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 186

EU consumers’ quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations: an evaluation

English

Abstract: This report updates and extends earlier assessments of quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations of consumers in the euro area and the EU using an anonymised micro data set collected by the European Commission in the context of the Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys. Confirming earlier findings, consumers' quantitative estimates of inflation are found to be higher than actual HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation over the entire sample period (2004-2015). The analysis shows that European consumers hold different opinions of inflation depending on their income, age, education and gender. Although many of the features highlighted for the EU and the euro area aggregates are valid across individual Member States, differences exist also at the country level. Despite the higher inflation estimates, there is a high level of co-movement between measured and estimated (perceived/expected) inflation. Even respondents providing estimates largely above actual HICP inflation, demonstrate understanding of the relative level of inflation during both high and low inflation periods. Based on these economically plausible results, the report concludes that further work should be devoted to defining concrete aggregate indicators of consumers' quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations on the basis of the dataset used in this study. Moreover, it outlines a number of future research topics that can be addressed by exploiting the enormous potential of the data set.
JEL Code: D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

5 February 2019

ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE

Twenty years of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2019

English

Abstract: For two decades the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has been collecting point forecasts and probability distributions for euro area-wide HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate at different horizons. This article documents the evolution of the SPF through the changing economic landscape of the past twenty years, including the Great Moderation, with relatively high economic growth and stable inflation, the financial crisis and, more recently, a prolonged period of subdued inflationary pressures. Analyses show that the strong and persistent shocks in the past ten years have created challenges for the stability of the economic relationships and mean reversion tendencies on which forecasts tend to be based. They also suggest that in 2009 there was a lasting increase in forecasters’ assessments of uncertainty across all variables and horizons. Learning from the SPF has remained a useful input for the ECB’s economic analysis and monetary policy.
JEL Code: D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

4 February 2020

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2371

Forecast performance in the ECB SPF: ability or chance?

Aidan Meyler

English

Abstract: In this paper, we consider whether differences in the forecast performance of ECB SPF respondents reflect ability or chance. Although differences in performance metrics sometimes appear substantial, it is challenging to determine whether they reflect ex ante skill or other factors impacting ex post sampling variation such as the nature of economic shocks that materialised or simply which rounds participants responded in. We apply and adapt an approach developed by D’Agostino et al. (2012) who used US SPF data. They developed a test of a null hypothesis that all forecasters have equal ability. Their statistic reflects both the absolute and relative performance of each forecaster and they used bootstrap techniques to compare the empirical results with the equivalents obtained under the null hypothesis of equal forecaster ability. Our results, at a first pass, suggest that there would appear to be evidence of good/bad forecasters. However once we control for the autocorrelation that is caused by the overlapping rolling horizons, we find, like D’Agostino et al. (2012), that the best forecasters are not statistically significantly better than others. Unlike D’Agostino et al. (2012), however, we do not find evidence of forecasters that perform very significantly worse than others. Controlling for autocorrelation is a key feature of this paper relative to previous work. Our results hold considering the whole sample period of the ECB SPF (1999-2018) as well as the pre- and post-global financial crisis samples. We also find that when assessed across all variables and horizons, the aggregate (consensus) SPF forecast performs best.
JEL Code: C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

23 March 2021

ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE

Making sense of consumers’ inflation perceptions and expectations – the role of (un)certainty

Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021

English

Abstract: Consumers’ inflation expectations play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. As such, it is crucial for monetary policymakers to understand their nature and how they are formed. This article shows that inflation (un)certainty is a channel that can shed light on some of the more puzzling aspects of reported quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations. It helps explain why these may be higher than actual inflation. This is because, in a situation of uncertainty, many consumers report in rounded numbers, often leading them to quantitatively overestimate inflation. We also show that the uncertainty framework fits with some of the stylised facts of consumers’ inflation expectations, such as their correlation with sociodemographic characteristics and economic sentiment. Furthermore, the uncertainty channel may also explain the negative correlation observed between the economic outlook and inflation expectations.
JEL Code: D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy

External publications

2018

International Journal of Financial Research

Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?