Roland Beck
International & European Relations
- Division
-
International Policy Analysis
- Current Position
-
Principal Economist
- Other current responsibilities
Principal Economist, International Policy Analysis Division
- Education
Ph.D. in Economics, Goethe University Frankfurt; M.A. in Economics University of Bonn
- Professional experience
Since 2005: European Central Bank; 2002-2005: Deutsche Bank Research
- 4 July 2006
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 48Details
- Abstract
- This paper - based on a report by a Task Force established by the International Relations Committee (IRC) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) - reviews macroeconomic and financial stability challenges for acceding (Bulgaria and Romania) and candidate countries (Croatia and Turkey). In an environment characterised by strong growth and capital inflows, the main macroeconomic challenges relate to the recent pick-up of inflation and the large and widening current account deficits. Moreover, rapid credit growth has been a recent feature of financial development in all countries and thus constitutes the main financial stability challenge. In general, monetary authorities have responded to these challenges by tightening monetary conditions and prudential standards, with concrete measures also reflecting the different monetary and exchange rate regimes in the region. The paper also highlights four specific features of fiancial development in the countries under review, namely the dominance of banks in financial intermediation, the strong participation of foreign-owned banks, the widespread use of foreign currencies and the strengthening of supervisory frameworks.
- JEL Code
- E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
P27 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→Performance and Prospects
- 30 March 2007
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 58Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of Russia's long-term growth prospects. In particular, it addresses the question of the medium- and long-term sustainability of the country's currently high growth rates. Starting from the notion that Russia's fast economic expansion in recent years has benefited from a number of singular factors such as the unprecedented rise in oil prices, the paper presents new evidence on Russia's oil price dependency using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The findings indicate that the positive impact of rising oil prices on Russia's GDP growth has increased in recent years, but tends to be buffered by an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate which is stimulating imports. Additionally, there is empirical confirmation that growth in the service sector - a symptom usually associated with the Dutch disease phenomenon - is mainly a result of the transition process. Finally, the paper provides an overview of the relevant factors that are likely to affect Russia's growth performance in the future.
- JEL Code
- O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O51 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→U.S., Canada
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O14 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Industrialization, Manufacturing and Service Industries, Choice of Technology
- 2 July 2008
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 91Details
- Abstract
- wealth funds (SWFs) on global financial markets. It presents back-of-the-envelope calculations which simulate the potential impact of a transfer of traditional foreign exchange reserves to SWFs on global capital flows. If SWFs behave as CAPM-type investors and thus allocate foreign assets according to market capitalisation rather than liquidity considerations, official portfolios reduce their "bias" towards the major reserve currencies. As a result, more capital flows "downhill" from rich to less wealthy economies, in line with standard neoclassical predictions. More specifically, it is found that under the assumption of SWFs investing according to market capitalisation weights, the euro area and the United States could be subject to net capital outflows while Japan and the emerging markets would attract net capital inflows. It is also shown that these findings are sensitive to alternative assumptions for the portfolio objectives of SWFs. Finally, the paper discusses whether a change in net capital flows triggered by SWFs could have an impact on stock prices and bond yields. Based on an event study approach, no evidence can be found for a stock price impact of non-commercially motivated stock sales by Norway's Government Pension Fund.
- JEL Code
- F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 31 July 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 916Details
- Abstract
- We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and "transaction demands" caused by sudden stops in capital inflows. In this model, the transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 24 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and, at current debt to reserve ratios, introducing transactions demand has a relatively modest effect. We also find that euro and dollar bonds act as "safe haven currencies" during sudden stops. Dollars are better hedges for global sudden stops and for regional sudden stops in Asia and Latin America, while the euro is a better hedge for sudden stops in Emerging Europe. We reproduce qualitatively the recent decline in the share of the dollar in emerging market reserves and find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has very little importance for optimal reserve portfolios.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 25 February 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1012Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the empirical determinants of import demand in oil exporting countries. Using a new dataset including a large cross section of oil exporting countries, we show with a panel cointegration analysis that import demand in these countries depends positively on domestic demand and exports, the real exchange rate and the price of oil. Fiscal surpluses, on the other hand, tend to reduce the demand for imports. More specifically, our import elasticities estimated for oil exporting countries are not far from estimates found in the literature on industrial countries. In particular, we conclude that the import elasticity with respect to domestic activity is larger than one - a finding which is in contrast to standard theoretical predictions but in line with most empirical findings for other countries. These results are robust over a wide set of alternative specifications.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 20 May 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1193Details
- Abstract
- The notable increase in international reserve holdings over the past decade and their use during the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 has sparked renewed interest in the analysis of the optimal level of reserve holdings, in particular in countries which are subject to sudden stops. Less attention has been given to the optimal composition of reserves and even less to the joint determination of level and composition. In light of current developments, we show that despite the common belief that higher reserve levels should go along with higher diversification to minimize the opportunity costs from holding reserves, the opposite may even be true. It depends on the factors that stand behind the increase in reserves whether increased diversification is optimal or not. We estimate for a panel of 20 countries the determinants of the currency composition of reserves and show how it is affected by the different motives of reserve accumulation. In line with the recent literature on reserve levels we find that reserve accumulation is primarily driven by precautionary motives, which in turn underpins the allocation of reserves to safe assets. While we find primarily evidence of the allocation being a function of precautionary motives, we also find some weak evidence for reserve accumulation to lead to more diversified portfolios if reserve accumulation is driven by other factors than precautionary motives.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 16 June 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 113Details
- Abstract
- This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the link between energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures and the role of monetary policy in reacting to such pressure requires a deeper look at the structure of the economy. Energy prices have presented a challenge for the Eurosystem, as the volatility of the energy component of consumer prices has been high since the creation of EMU. At the same time, a look back into the past may not necessarily be very informative for gauging the likely impact of energy price changes on overall inflation in the future. For instance, the reaction of HICP inflation to energy price fluctuations seems to have been more muted during the past decade than in earlier periods such as the 1970s.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 28 September 2012
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 136Details
- Abstract
- This Occasional Paper reviews financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership with a candidate country status, i.e. Croatia (planned to accede to the EU on 1 July 2013), Iceland, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Turkey. It follows a macro-prudential approach, emphasising systemic risks of financial systems as a whole. After recalling that some EU candidate countries went through a pronounced boom-and-bust credit cycle in recent years, the paper identifies current challenges for the bank-based financial sectors as mainly stemming from: (i) high or rising domestic credit risk; (ii) unhedged borrowing in foreign currencies; and (iii) strains related to the euro area debt crisis, which is impacting the EU candidate countries via a number of channels. The main channels of transmission of the euro area debt crisis to the EU candidate countries operate via: (i) trade and foreign direct investment; (ii) an increased market focus on sovereign risk; and (iii) "deleveraging", e.g. via a decline of external funding to local subsidiaries of EU parent banks. A macro-stress-test exercise performed by the national authorities of the EU candidate countries in February 2012 suggests that large capital buffers can absorb a shock to credit quality stemming from a drop in economic activity in the EU and renewed strains from the euro area debt crisis. With respect to supervisory practices, the paper finds that the EU candidate countries have made good progress, but some gaps with respect to international and EU standards remain.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 February 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1515Details
- Abstract
- Using a novel panel data set we study the macroeconomic determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) across 75 countries during the past decade. According to our dynamic panel estimates, the following variables are found to significantly affect NPL ratios: real GDP growth, share prices, the exchange rate, and the lending interest rate. In the case of exchange rates, the direction of the effect depends on the extent of foreign exchange lending to unhedged borrowers which is particularly high in countries with pegged or managed exchange rates. In the case of share prices, the impact is found to be larger in countries which have a large stock market relative to GDP. These results are robust to alternative econometric specifications.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 7 August 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1839Details
- Abstract
- During the sovereign debt crisis investors rebalanced out of stressed and into non-stressed euro area countries, thereby contributing to the tensions in euro area financial markets. This paper examines the geographical pattern of this great rebalancing. Specifically, we test whether euro area and non-euro area investors adjusted their holdings of debt securities of euro area stressed and non-stressed countries dis-proportionately relative to benchmarks derived from a standard gravity model for portfolio choice. We find that non-euro area investors under-invested in stressed euro area countries, but did not over-invest in non-stressed euro area countries. As regards intra-euro area flows, we do not find evidence for a disproportionate slowdown of capital flows from non-stressed into stressed euro area countries. Instead, our results suggest that investors in stressed euro area countries disproportionately shifted capital into debt securities of non-stressed euro area countries. Finally, we find that both non-euro area investors' under-investment in stressed countries and stressed euro area investors' over-investment in non-stressed euro area countries ceased after the announcement of the ECB's OMT programme.
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 23 September 2015
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 166Details
- Abstract
- The decrease of financial integration both at the global and European level reflects, to a certain extent, a market response to the crisis. It might, however, also be partly driven by policies such as capital flow management measures (CFMs). In addition, several other measures taken by central banks, regulators and governments in response to the crisis may have had less obvious negative side effects on financial integration. Against this backdrop, this paper explores broad definitions of financial protectionism in order to raise awareness of the fact that the range of policies which could negatively affect financial integration may be much wider than residency-based CFMs. At the same time, the paper acknowledges that these measures have mostly been taken for legitimate financial stability purposes and with no protectionist intentions. The paper considers five categories of policy measures which could contribute to financial fragmentation both at the global and at the EU level: currency-based measures directed towards banks, geographic ring fencing, some financial repression policies, crisis resolution policies with a national bias, and some financial sector taxes.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 9 December 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1987Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates to what extent yield spreads on bonds issued by sub-sovereign entities within federations are driven by bailout expectations and investors
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
H7 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations
- 29 January 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2229Details
- Abstract
- We use a cross-country sample of monthly observations for quantitative easing (QE) treatments in order to study the causal effect of such policies on a large set of economic and financial outcome variables. We address potential endogeneity by re-randomising the sample and applying the augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our results show that QE policies do affect the central bank balance sheet and asset prices, in particular long term yields, equity prices and exchange rates in the expected direction. Most importantly, we find that QE policies lead to a sustained rise in the CPI and in inflation expectations. However, our findings suggest that the main transmission channel does not appear to be stronger aggregate demand impacting inflation through the Phillips curve, but rather exchange rate depreciation. Finally, we do not find any evidence for side effects and increases in risk taking following QE, with real house prices and real credit not increasing or falling, and no downward effect on stock market volatility.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 : International Economics→International Finance - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 7 May 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2546Details
- Abstract
- We revisit the effects of globalisation over the past 50 years in a large sample of advanced and emerging countries. We use accessions to \Globalisation Clubs" (WTO, OECD, EU), financial liberalisation and an instrument for trade openness to study the trade-off between efficiency (proxied by real GDP per capita and TFP) and equity (proxied by the labour share of income and the Gini index of inequality). We find that (i) most of our episodes lead to an increase in trade openness (ii) effects on GDP per capita are mostly positive with some interesting exceptions and (iii) there is little evidence that globalisation shocks lead to more inequality.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- Journal of International Money and Finance 30 (2011) 1107-1127Optimal Reserve Composition in the Presence of Sudden Stops
- Review of European Economic Policy Vol. 43, No. 6
- International Finance, 14: 415–444
- Economics Letters, Volume 124, Issue 3, September 2014