European Central Bank - eurosystem
Search Options
Home Media Explainers Research & Publications Statistics Monetary Policy The €uro Payments & Markets Careers
Suggestions
Sort by

Peter McQuade

International & European Relations

Division

International Policy Analysis

Current Position

Senior Economist

Fields of interest

International Economics,Financial Economics

Email

Peter.McQuade@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2011

Ph.D. Economics, Trinity College Dublin

11 January 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023
Details
Abstract
The US Treasury securities market is the largest and most liquid in the world. Recently, however, its liquidity has declined owing to a combination of factors, including monetary policy tightening and elevated uncertainty about inflation and growth. At the same time, leveraged funds have built up unusually large net short positions in the US Treasury futures market. This box provides empirical evidence that the impact of a US monetary policy shock on domestic and global bond markets may vary depending on conditions in the US Treasury market. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of a US monetary policy shock might be stronger when market liquidity is low or when net short positions of leveraged funds are large.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
7 November 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box highlights the recent inversion of the euro area and US yield curves and considers its information content for the future state of these economies. The slope of the yield curve is currently negative and the most steeply inverted it has been in decades for both the euro area and the United States. Among other factors, a negative slope may reflect investors’ expectations that the macroeconomic outlook will worsen, inflation will decline and longer-term yields will be lower as growth slows. In the past, the slope has typically had statistical predictive power for economic downturns. Recent estimates based on this indicator point to a high probability of a recession in the next 12 months in both jurisdictions. However, estimated recession probabilities are considerably lower when the models include information from additional financial indicators and oil prices, and when they account for the yield impact of the balance sheet policies of central banks. The analysis therefore highlights that a simple translation of the current historically negative yield curve slopes into a high recession probability would be an incomplete assessment.
JEL Code
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
21 June 2023
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATURE
The international role of the euro 2023
Details
JEL Code
:
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
Abstract
This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
27 March 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 311
Details
Abstract
Over the past decade, geopolitical developments – and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world – have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU’s economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU’s OSA policy agenda which extends to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB’s monetary policy and other policies.
JEL Code
F0 : International Economics→General
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F5 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
L5 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
28 September 2022
THE ECB BLOG
Details
JEL Code
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
14 June 2022
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOX
The international role of the euro 2022
2 June 2021
THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOX
The international role of the euro 2021
30 July 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2301
Details
Abstract
This paper examines international debt issuance through Irish-resident Special Purpose Entities (SPEs). Using a unique new dataset covering the population of Irish-resident SPEs reporting to the Central Bank of Ireland over the period 2005-2017, we identify cross-country debt financing links channelled through SPEs. The empirical analysis suggests that tax optimisation is an important motive, particularly for sponsors of Irish-resident securitisation vehicles, while investor protection and financial development are important additional considerations for sponsors of non-securitisation vehicles.
JEL Code
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
13 February 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2238
Details
Abstract
Both academic researchers and policymakers posit a unique role for the US in the inter-national financial system. This paper investigates the characteristics and determinants of US cross-border financial flows and examines how these contrast with those of the rest of the world. We analyse the relative importance of US, country-specific, and global variables as determinants of aggregate and bilateral US financial flows and as determinants of country-level cross-border financial flows excluding those directly involving the US. Our results indicate that variation in US variables – notably the VIX and US dollar exchange rate – has a quantitatively important influence on global financial flows, but mostly via US cross-border flows. Global and national risk indicators perform better in explaining “rest of the world” flows. Moreover, we find that the correlation between US and rest of the world flows peaks in periods of elevated uncertainty. We interpret our findings as evidence for the existence of a global financial cycle, only some of which is driven by policies and events in the US.
JEL Code
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
30 August 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1952
Details
Abstract
This paper highlights a recent
JEL Code
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
25 November 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1869
Details
Abstract
Using event-study techniques we investigate the presence and the magnitude of spillovers from the ECB
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
10 July 2013
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1566
Details
Abstract
Europe experienced substantial cross-country variation in domestic credit growth and cross border capital flows during the pre-crisis period. We investigate the inter-relations between domestic credit growth and international capital flows over 1993-2008, with a special focus on the 2003-2008 boom period. We establish that domestic credit growth in European countries is strongly related to net debt inflows but not to net equity inflows. This pattern also holds for an extended sample of 54 advanced and emerging economies.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
2021
Central Bank of Ireland, Financial Stability Notes
  • Emter, L., Killeen, N., and McQuade, P.
2021
Journal of International Money and Finance
  • Galstyan, V., Maqui, E., and McQuade, P.
2021
Review of International Economics
  • Everett, M., de Haan, J., Jansen, D.J., McQuade, P., and Samarina, A.
2020
Journal of International Money and Finance
  • Everett, M., McQuade, P., O’Grady, M.
2019
Central Bank of Ireland, Quarterly Bulletin Articles
  • Emter, L. and McQuade, P.
2018
Central Bank of Ireland, Financial Stability Notes
  • Herzberg, V. and McQuade, P.
2017
European Economy-Economic Briefs
  • McQuade, P., Riscado, S., and Stancroce, S.
2017
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
  • Larch, M., Magnusson Bernard, K., and McQuade, P
2017
Journal of International Money and Finance
  • McQuade, P. and Schmitz, M.
2014
The Scandinavian Journal of Economics
  • Lane, P. and McQuade, P.
2010
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
  • McQuade, P.