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Rinalds Gerinovics

4 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, war-related disruptions and sanctions led to a sharp decline in trade flows with Russia. This box takes stock of recent and high frequency trade data to track flows of energy and agri-food commodities. It finds that Russia’s oil exports recovered from the post-invasion lows as some diversion of flows from sanctioning countries to Asia took place, whereas pipeline gas and agri-food commodity exports have significantly declined. The box provides an empirical assessment of the effects of the first round of sanctions in March 2022, which are estimated to have reduced Russian imports by about 15%.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
B40 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→Economic Methodology→General
24 March 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022
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Abstract
Strains in global supply chains of goods have been weighing on the global business cycle since late 2020. Given the multifaceted nature of supply bottlenecks, this box uses a relatively large set of indicators to track their causes. These indicators can help identify any signs of improvement or deterioration in specific economic sectors at an earlier stage. These sectoral indicators are represented in the form of heatmaps for the euro area and the United States. Recent data suggest that supply bottlenecks remain at historically high levels in both economies but may be starting to ease.
JEL Code
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
3 May 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021
Details
Abstract
A rapid recovery in activity and trade has lengthened supplier delivery times, while international shipping costs have also increased. This box analyses the factors driving the surge in shipping costs by means of a Structural VAR model. It concludes that recent developments reflect rising demand and, to a smaller degree, supply constraints in the shipping industry. At the same time, the impact of rising shipping costs on overall consumer prices is expected to be limited.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics