Rinalds Gerinovics
- 24 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- Strains in global supply chains of goods have been weighing on the global business cycle since late 2020. Given the multifaceted nature of supply bottlenecks, this box uses a relatively large set of indicators to track their causes. These indicators can help identify any signs of improvement or deterioration in specific economic sectors at an earlier stage. These sectoral indicators are represented in the form of heatmaps for the euro area and the United States. Recent data suggest that supply bottlenecks remain at historically high levels in both economies but may be starting to ease.
- JEL Code
- C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 3 May 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- A rapid recovery in activity and trade has lengthened supplier delivery times, while international shipping costs have also increased. This box analyses the factors driving the surge in shipping costs by means of a Structural VAR model. It concludes that recent developments reflect rising demand and, to a smaller degree, supply constraints in the shipping industry. At the same time, the impact of rising shipping costs on overall consumer prices is expected to be limited.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
F01 : International Economics→General→Global Outlook
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics