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Ana-Simona Manu

2 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
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Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has led to the accumulation of a large stock of household savings across advanced economies. Owing to their large size, the savings accumulated since early 2020 could significantly influence the post-pandemic recovery path. The central question is whether households will spend heavily once pandemic-related restrictions are lifted and consumer confidence returns, or whether other motives (e.g. precautionary, deleveraging) will keep households from spending their accumulated excess savings. This box reviews the main economic arguments supporting the hypothesis that any reduction in the accumulated stock of savings is likely to be limited in the medium term. However, given the considerable uncertainty surrounding these arguments, it also illustrates two alternative scenarios for the stock of the accumulated savings (a “cut-back” scenario and a “build-up” scenario) and assesses their possible implications for the global economic outlook.
JEL Code
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
5 August 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2019
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Abstract
While both global activity and trade have been declining since mid-2018, world trade has slowed particularly sharply. This box investigates the reasons behind the decline in global trade and its decoupling from economic activity. This is largely explained by a turnaround in the most trade-intensive components of global demand, such as investment, exacerbated by rising global uncertainty and tighter financing conditions. From a production perspective, the decline in investment was reflected in a sharp slowdown in manufacturing output.
JEL Code
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
20 May 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2282
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Abstract
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of global structural shocks for changes in financial conditions across a sample of emerging market economies. We disentangle four key drivers of global financial markets (oil supply shocks, global economic news shocks, US-specific economic news shocks and US monetary shocks) and show that these global factors account for about half of the variation in risky asset prices across EMEs. The influence of global factors for EME interest rates and currencies is much smaller, suggesting that factors beyond the identified global shocks (e.g. domestic or regional shocks) might be more important. In contrast to the recent literature on the global financial cycle which has emphasised the prominent role of US monetary policy, we find that although US monetary shocks have some influence in shaping EME financial markets, the broader global environment plays a significantly stronger role.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
26 September 2018
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2180
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Abstract
We offer a macroeconomic assessment of China’s Reform Period, highlighting several neglected channels underlining its great expansion. Estimating the supply side of the post-Reform economy reveals the relatively high (above unity) value of the elasticity of factor substitution and the time-varying pattern of factor-saving technical change. The latter we relate to trade, human capital and reallocation factors. We then demonstrate how, in addition to factor accumulation and technical progress, the above-unity elasticity of substitution can be a source of growth (the ‘de La Grandville hypothesis’). We then draw upon our estimated framework to rationalize China’s high and rising savings ratio as well as the dynamic nature of its convergence path.
JEL Code
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E13 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Neoclassical
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
13 March 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2034
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Abstract
We present estimates of finance-adjusted output gaps which incorporate the information on the domestic and global credit cycles for a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). Following recent BIS research, we use a state-space representation of an HP filter augmented with a measure of the credit gap to estimate finance-adjusted output gaps. We measure the domestic and global credit gaps as the deviation of private-sector real credit growth and net capital flows to EMEs from long-term trends, using the asymmetric Band-Pass filter. Overall, we find that financial cycle information is associated with cyclical movements in output. In the current circumstances, the estimates suggest that if financing and credit conditions were to tighten, it would be associated with a moderation in activity in some EMEs.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements