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Lenza, Michele

Research

Division

Monetary Policy Research

Current position

Head of Section

Fields of interest

Mathematical and Quantitative Methods,
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Email

michele.lenza@ecb.europa.eu

Other current responsibilities
  • 2017-
    Leader of the research coordination group on "Forecasting and Business Cycle Analysis"
  • 2014-
    Member of the Forecast Steering Committee, European Central Bank
Education
  • 2000-2007
    PhD in Economics and Statistics, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
  • 1999-2000
    MA in Economics and Statistics, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
  • 1993-1998
    BA in Economics, Bocconi University, Italy
Professional experience
  • 2017-
    Head of Section - Monetary Policy Research Division, Macroeconomics Section, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank
  • 2013-2016
    Principal Economist - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank
  • 2011-2013
    Senior Economist - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank
  • 2004-2010
    Economist - Econometric Modelling Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank
  • 2004
    Internship - EU countries Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
  • 2003
    Internship - Euro area Macroeconomic Developments Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
Teaching experience
  • 2017-
    Professor of Macroeconomics - Monetary Policy, Joint Master in Political Economy Georgetown University (USA)/Université Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium)
  • 2014-2016
    Professor of Graduate Econometrics 3 - Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
  • 2011-2014
    Professor of Graduate Macroeconomics 3 - Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
  • 2010-2011
    Invited lectures, Graduate Econometrics 3; Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium
  • 2009
    Macroeconomic tools and techniques: reduced form and structural models (with A. D'Agostino, D. Giannone and G. Primiceri), Dublin, Central Bank of Ireland
  • 2000-2004
    Teaching Assistant - Graduate Macroeconomics, Graduate Econometrics, Seminaire d'Econometrie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium

ECB Working Paper Series

2020
Lenza, Michele, Primiceri, Giorgio E.
How to estimate a VAR after March 2020
No 2461
Cimadomo, Jacopo, Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele, Sokol, Andrej, Monti, Francesca
Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions
No 2453
Del Negro, Marco, Lenza, Michele, Primiceri, Giorgio E., Tambalotti, Andrea
What’s up with the Phillips Curve?
No 2435
2019
Altavilla, Carlo, Carboni, Giacomo, Lenza, Michele, Uhlig, Harald
Interbank rate uncertainty and bank lending
No 2311
Angelini, Elena, Lalik, Magdalena, Lenza, Michele, Paredes, Joan
Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections
No 2227
Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele, Reichlin, Lucrezia
Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?
No 2226
2018
Lenza, Michele, Slacalek, Jiri
How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area
No 2190
Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele, Primiceri, Giorgio E.
Priors for the long run
No 2132
2016
Lenza, Michele, Jarociński, Marek
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
No 1966
2014
Giannone, Domenico, Bańbura, Marta, Lenza, Michele
Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections
No 1733
Giannone, Domenico, Altavilla, Carlo, Lenza, Michele
The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements
No 1707
2012
Giannone, Domenico, Reichlin, Lucrezia, Lenza, Michele
The ECB and the interbank market
No 1496
Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele, Primiceri, Giorgio E.
Prior selection for vector autoregressions
No 1494
2011
Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele, Pill, Huw, Reichlin, Lucrezia
Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments
No 1290
2010
Lenza, Michele, Pill, Huw, Reichlin, Lucrezia
Monetary policy in exceptional times
No 1253
2009
Giannone, Domenico, Reichlin, Lucrezia, Lenza, Michele
Business cycles in the euro area
No 1010
2008
Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele
The Feldstein-Horioka fact
No 873
Giannone, Domenico, Lenza, Michele, Reichlin, Lucrezia
Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks
No 865
2007
Lenza, Michele
Monetary policy and core inflation
No 837

ECB Occasional Paper Series

2013
De Fiore, Fiorella, Farinha, Luísa, Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, Ferrando, Annalisa
Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB

Wintr, Ladislav, Vitale, Giovanni, Darracq Pariès, Matthieu, Lenza, Michele, Martinez-Carrascal, Carmen, Carboni, Giacomo, Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra, Waschiczek, Walter, Zachary, Marie-Denise, Georgakopoulos, Vasilis, Kapatais, Demetris, Geiger, Felix, Rupprecht, Manuel, Raudsaar, Taavi, McCann, Fergal, Carluccio, Juan, Horny, Guillaume, Finaldi Russo, Paolo, Caruana Briffa, Elaine, Metzemakers, Paul, van der Veer, Koen, Herman, Uroš, Karšay, Alexander, Mäki-Fränti, Petri, Servant, François, De Socio, Antonio, Hertkorn, Andreas, Karmazin, Branislav, Lalouette, Laure

Corporate finance and economic activity in the euro area
No 151

ECB Economic Bulletin Article

2018
Ehrmann, Michael, Ferrucci, Gianluigi, Lenza, Michele, O'Brien, Derry
Measures of underlying inflation for the euro area

ECB Research bulletin

2020
Del Negro, Marco, Lenza, Michele, Primiceri, Giorgio, Tambalotti, Andrea
Why has inflation in the United States been so stable since the 1990s?
No 74
2019
Slacalek, Jiri, Lenza, Michele
Quantitative easing did not increase inequality in the euro area
No 54
2016
Jarociński, Marek, Lenza, Michele
How large is the output gap in the euro area
No 24

Journal publications

2020
Del Negro, M., Lenza, M., Primiceri, G. and Tambalotti, A.
What's up with the Phillips Curve?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Forthcoming
2019
Angelini, E., Lalik, M., Lenza, M. and Paredes, J.
Mind the gap: a multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections
International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 35, No 4, pp. 1658-1668
Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and Reichlin, L.
Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area: what has changed since the crisis?
International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 15, No 5, pp. 137-173
Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and Primiceri, G.
Priors for the long run
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 114, No 526, pp. 565-580
2018
Jarocinski, M. and Lenza, M.
An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 50(6), pp. 1189-1224
2017
Colangelo, A., Giannone, D., Lenza, M., Pill, H. and Reichlin, L.
The national segmentation of euro area bank balance sheets during the financial crisis
Empirical Economics, vol. 53(1), pp. 247-265
2016
Altavilla, C., Giannone, D. and Lenza, M.
The financial and macroeconomic effects of the OMT announcements
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pp. 29-57
2015
Banbura, M., Giannone, D. and Lenza, M.
Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections
International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 31(3), pp. 739-756
Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and G. Primiceri
Prior selection for vector autoregressions
The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 97(2), pp. 436-451
2014
Giannone, D., Lenza, M., Momferatou, D. and Onorante, L.
Short-term inflation projections: a bayesian vector-autoregressive approach
International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 30, pp. 635-644
D'Agostino, A., Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and Modugno, M.
Nowcasting business cycles: a bayesian approach to dynamic heterogeneous factor models
Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 35, Dynamic factor models, pp. 569-594
2012
Giannone, D., Lenza, M., Pill, H. and Reichlin, L.
The ECB and the interbank market
The Economic Journal, vol. 122, pp. F467-F486,
2011
Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and Reichlin, L.
Market Freedom and the Great Recession
IMF Economic Review, vol. 59; pp. 111-135
Lenza, M. and Warmedinger, T.
A factor model for euro area short-term inflation analysis
Journal of Economics and Statistics, vol. 231; pp. 50-62
2010
Lenza, M., Pill, H. and Reichlin, L.
Monetary Policy in exceptional times
Economic Policy, vol. 62; pp. 295-339
2009
Fischer, B., Lenza, M., Pill, H. and Reichlin, L.
Monetary analysis and monetary policy in the euro area 1999-2006
Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 28(7), pp. 1138-1164
2008
D. Giannone; M. Lenza and L. Reichlin
Explaining the Great Moderation: it's not the shocks!
Journal of European Economic Association, vol. 6(2-3), pp. 621-633

Other publications

2012
Giannone, D., Lenza, M., Pill, H. and Reichlin, L.
Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments
Interest rates, prices and liquidity, Chadha, J.S., and Holly, S. eds - Cambridge University Press
2010
D. Giannone; M. Lenza and L. Reichlin
Business cycles in the euro area
Europe and the EMU, Alesina, A. and Giavazzi, F. eds, pp. 141-167
Giannone, D. and Lenza, M.
The Feldstein-Horioka Fact
NBER International Seminars On Macroeconomics 2009, Reichlin, L. and West, K. eds; pp. 103-117
2009
Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and Reichlin, L.
The ECB and the bond market. A discussion
The euro. The first decade, Buti, M, Deroose, S. and Gaspar, V. eds., pp. 305-314