Uroš Herman
- 4 October 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2850Details
- Abstract
- This paper first provides empirical evidence that labour market outcomes for the less educated, who also tend to be poorer, are substantially more volatile than labour market outcomes for the well-educated, who tend to be richer. We estimate job finding rates and separation rates by educational attainment for several European countries and find that job finding rates are smaller and separation rates larger at lower educational attainment levels. At cyclical frequencies, fluctuations of the job finding rate explain up to 80% of the unemployment fluctuations for the less educated. We then construct a stylised HANK model augmented with search and matching and ex-ante heterogeneity in terms of educational attainment. We show that monetary policy has stronger effects when the job market for the less educated and hence poorer is more volatile. The reason is that these workers have the most procyclical income coupled with the highest marginal propensity to consume. An expansionary monetary policy shock that increases labour demand disproportionally affects the labour market segment for the less educated, causing a strong increase in their consumption. This further amplifies labour demand and increases labour income of the poor even more, amplifying the initial effect. The same mechanism carries over to forward guidance.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- 28 January 2016
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 167Details
- Abstract
- Although monetary union created the conditions for improving economic and financial integration in the euro area, in the context of the financial and sovereign crises, it has also been accompanied by the emergence of severe imbalances in savings and investment, credit and housing booms in some countries and the allocation of resources towards less productive sectors. The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis then led to major and abrupt adjustments as the risks posed by the large imbalances materialised. Although the institutional shortcomings in the EU that permitted the emergence of imbalances have been largely addressed since 2008, the adjustment process is not yet complete. From a macroeconomic perspective, the imbalances in the external accounts have led to the accumulation of high levels of external liabilities that need to be reduced, which, in turn, is weakening investment and therefore weighing on growth prospects and growth potential. From a macroprudential perspective, the lingering imbalances have added to systemic risk and rendered the euro area more vulnerable to risks. This Occasional Paper analyses the dynamic patterns in macroeconomic imbalances primarily from the former perspective, addressing in particular the connections between macroeconomic and sectoral adjustments of imbalances and the challenges for economic growth and performance over a longer horizon.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 8 August 2013
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 151Details
- Abstract
- This report analyses and reviews the corporate finance structure of non-financial corporations (NFCs) in the euro area, including how they interact with the macroeconomic environment. Special emphasis is placed on the crisis that began in 2007-08, thus underlining the relevance of financing and credit conditions to investment and economic activity in turbulent times. When approaching such a broad topic, a number of key questions arise. How did the corporate sector
- JEL Code
- E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit