Fiorella De Fiore
- 30 April 2019
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 57Details
- Abstract
- Money markets are an important source of short-term funding for banks, which rely heavily on them to cover their liquidity needs. But when money markets do not function smoothly, banks may have to de-leverage or increase their holdings of liquid assets, leading to a decline in lending and output. This decline can be mitigated by central banks if they increase the size of their balance sheets.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 13 February 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2239Details
- Abstract
- Interbank money markets have been subject to substantial impairments in the recent decade, such as a decline in unsecured lending and substantial increases in haircuts on posted collateral. This paper seeks to understand the implications of these developments for the broader economy and monetary policy. To that end, we develop a novel general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous banks, interbank markets for both secured and unsecured credit, and a central bank. The model features a number of occasionally binding constraints. The interactions between these constraints - in particular leverage and liquidity constraints - are key in determining macroeconomic outcomes. We find that both secured and unsecured money market frictions force banks to either divert resources into unproductive but liquid assets or to de-lever, which leads to less lending and output. If the liquidity constraint is very tight, the leverage constraint may turn slack. In this case, there are large declines in lending and output. We show how central bank policies which increase the size of the central bank balance sheet can attenuate this decline.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 12 October 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2183Details
- Abstract
- We study the optimal combination of conventional (interest rates) and unconventional (credit easing) monetary policy in a model where agency costs generate a spread between deposit and lending rates. We show that unconventional measures can be a powerful substitute for interest rate policy in the face of certain financial shocks. Such measures help shield the real economy from the deterioration in financial conditions and warrant smaller reductions in interest rates. They therefore lower the likelihood of hitting the lower bound constraint. The alternative option to cut interest rates more deeply and avoid deploying unconventional measures is sub-optimal, as it would induce unnecessarily large changes in savers' intertemporal consumption patterns.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
- 9 September 2016
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 1Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the effects of the European Central Bank’s expanded asset purchase programme (APP) on yields and on the macroeconomy, and sheds some light on its trans-mission channels. It shows, first, that the January 2015 announcement of the programme has significantly and persistently reduced sovereign yields on long-term bonds and raised the share prices of banks that held more sovereign bonds in their portfolios. This evidence is consistent with versions of the portfolio rebalancing channel acting through the removal of duration risk and the relaxation of leverage constraints for financial intermediaries. It then presents a stylised macroeconomic model that incorporates the aforementioned trans-mission channels. The model suggests that the macroeconomic impact of the programme can be expected to be sizable.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 9 September 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1956Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the effects of the European Central Bank's expanded asset purchase programme (APP) on yields and on the macroeconomy, and sheds some light on its transmission channels. It shows, first, that the January 2015 announcement of the programme has significantly and persistently reduced sovereign yields on long-term bonds and raised the share prices of banks that held more sovereign bonds in their portfolios. This evidence is consistent with versions of the portfolio rebalancing channel acting through the removal of duration risk and the relaxation of leverage constraints for financial intermediaries. It then presents a stylised macroeconomic model that incorporates the aforementioned transmission channels. The model suggests that the macroeconomic impact of the programme can be expected to be sizable.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates - Network
- Discussion papers
- 14 January 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1877Details
- Abstract
- Credit subsidies are an alternative to interest rate and credit policies when dealing with high and volatile credit spreads. In a model where credit spreads move in response to shocks to the net worth of financial intermediaries, credit subsidies are able to stabilize those spreads avoiding the transmission to the real economy. Interest rate policy can be a substitute for credit subsidies but is limited by the zero bound constraint. Credit subsidies overcome this constraint. They are superior to a policy of credit easing as long as the government is less efficient than financial intermediaries in providing credit.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 12 February 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1759Details
- Abstract
- We present a DSGE model where firms optimally choose among alternative instruments of external finance. The model is used to explain the evolving composition of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008-09, namely the observed shift from bank finance to bond finance, at a time when the cost of market debt rose above the cost of bank loans. We show that the flexibility offered by banks on the terms of their loans and firms
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 8 August 2013
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 151Details
- Abstract
- This report analyses and reviews the corporate finance structure of non-financial corporations (NFCs) in the euro area, including how they interact with the macroeconomic environment. Special emphasis is placed on the crisis that began in 2007-08, thus underlining the relevance of financing and credit conditions to investment and economic activity in turbulent times. When approaching such a broad topic, a number of key questions arise. How did the corporate sector
- JEL Code
- E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 8 December 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1123Details
- Abstract
- How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? In this paper we consider a simple model where firms are subject to idiosyncratic shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms’ assets and liabilities are denominated in nominal terms and predetermined when shocks occur. Monetary policy can therefore affect the real value of funds used to finance production. Furthermore, policy affects the loan and deposit rates. In our model, allowing for short-term inflation volatility in response to exogenous shocks can be optimal; the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to lower interest rates, if not at the zero bound, and to engineer a short period of controlled inflation; the Taylor rule may implement allocations that have opposite cyclical properties to the optimal ones.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 24 April 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1043Details
- Abstract
- We consider a simple extension of the basic new-Keynesian setup in which we relax the assumption of frictionless financial markets. In our economy, asymmetric information and default risk lead banks to optimally charge a lending rate above the risk-free rate. Our contribution is threefold. First, we derive analytically the loglinearised equations which characterise aggregate dynamics in our model and show that they nest those of the new- Keynesian model. A key difference is that marginal costs increase not only with the output gap, but also with the credit spread and the nominal interest rate. Second, we find that financial market imperfections imply that exogenous disturbances, including technology shocks, generate a trade-off between output and inflation stabilisation. Third, we show that, in our model, an aggressive easing of policy is optimal in response to adverse financial market shocks.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 30 April 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 889Details
- Abstract
- We analyze the properties of the natural rate of interest in an economy where nominal debt contracts generate a spread between loan rates and the policy interest rate. In our model, monetary policy has real effects in the flexible-price equilibrium, because it affects the credit spread. Relying on a definition suitable for this environment, we demonstrate that: (i) the natural rate is independent of monetary policy and (ii) it delivers price stability, if used as the intercept of a monetary policy rule. The second result holds exactly if real balances are remunerated at a constant spread below policy interest rates, approximately otherwise. We also highlight, however, that the natural rate is not robust to model un-certainty. The natural rate reacts differently to aggregate shocks - not only quantitatively but also qualitatively - depending on the underlying model assumptions (e.g. whether or not financial markets are frictionless).
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
- 11 November 2005
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 547Details
- Abstract
- We present a dynamic general equilibrium model with agency costs, where heterogeneous firms choose among two alternative instruments of external finance - corporate bonds and bank loans. We characterize the financing choice of firms and the endogenous financial structure of the economy. The calibrated model is used to address questions such as: What explains differences in the financial structure of the US and the euro area? What are the implications of these differences for allocations? We find that a higher share of bank finance in the euro area relative to the US is due to lower availability of public information about firms' credit worthiness and to higher efficiency of banks in acquiring this information. We also quantify the effect of differences in the financial structure on per-capita GDP.
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
- 1 September 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 173Details
- Abstract
- This paper shows that the conditions under which inflation-targeting interest rate rules lead to equilibrium uniqueness in a small open economy in general differ from those in a closed economy. As the monetary authority adjusts nominal interest rates in response to inflation, the real interest rate changes. The overall effect of this change on aggregate demand has important implications for equilibrium determinacy. In an open economy, an increase in the real interest rate is transmitted to aggregate demand through an intertemporal substitution effect, as in a closed economy, but also through a terms of trade effect that is absent in the closed economy. These effects move aggregate demand in opposite directions. We find that, in a broad class of models, the conditions for local equilibrium uniqueness depend crucially on the degree of openness to international trade. Openness matters not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 1 April 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 135Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we determine the optimal combination of taxes on money, consumption and income in transaction technology models. We show that the optimal policy does not tax money, regardless of whether the government can use the income tax, the consumption tax, or the two taxes jointly. These results are at odds with recent literature. We argue that the reason for this divergence is an inappropriate specification of the transaction technology adopted in the literature.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 1 November 2000
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 38Details
- Abstract
- Tax collection costs have been advocated in the literature as a reason to deviate from the Friedman rule, in standard general equilibrium monetary models with flexible prices. This paper shows that there are conditions under which the Friedman rule is optimal despite the presence of collection costs. When these conditions are not satisfied, the optimal inflation tax depends upon the collection costs parameter and schedule, the interest and scale elasticity of money demand, and the compensated labor supply elasticity. Numerical results obtained by calibrating the model on US data suggest that collection costs do not justify substantial departures from Friedman's prescriptions.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 1 September 2000
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 32Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyzes the possibility to generate indeterminacy and equilibria with short-run non-neutrality of money in a model with flexible prices, constant returns to scale in production and constant money growth rules. The model recovers previous results in the literature as particular cases. It is shown that real effects of monetary shocks, as observed in the data, can arise in four regions of the parameter space. Two regions are characterized by unreasonable assumptions, which lead to inferiority of consumption or leisure. Two regions are characterized by reasonable assumptions and by normality of the goods. However, real effects of monetary shocks require implausible parameter values.
- JEL Code
- E13 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Neoclassical
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy