Ivan Jaccard
Research
- Division
-
Monetary Policy Research
- Current Position
-
Senior Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
- Education
- 2001-2006
Ph.D, HEC Lausanne
- Professional experience
- 2006-2008
Visiting Scholar, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
- Teaching experience
- 2019
Invited Professor, Université Paris-Dauphine
- 2011-2014
Lecturer, Goethe University, Master in Law and Finance
- 29 July 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2690Details
- Abstract
- How does contagion risk affect the business cycle? We find that the presence of contagion risk significantly alters the transmission of standard macroeconomic shocks. Relative to the first-best equilibrium, the contagion externality significantly reduces the response of output to a technology shock. We also argue that the magnitude of the trade-off between health and the economy crucially depends on how the probability of infection is specified. If the probability of infection only depends on agents’ endogenous choices, a weaker trade-off emerges. In such a framework, and relative to the laissez-faire equilibrium, suboptimal policies such as zero COVID strategies, health insurance, or mandatory testing substantially attenuate recessions that are caused by epidemics. Therefore, policies primarily aimed at preserving public health do not necessarily come at the cost of deeper recessions.
- JEL Code
- E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
H0 : Public Economics→General
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
- 28 July 2021
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 86Details
- Abstract
- Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time. The challenge for policymakers is that climate policies could have a negative impact on the economy in the short term. In this article we discuss how this trade-off between fighting climate change and ensuring a stable business cycle affects the design of environmental policies. We argue in favour of a time-varying carbon tax that is increased during booms and decreased during recessions.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 23 April 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2539Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the effects of imperfect risk-sharing between lenders and borrowers on commercial property prices and leverage. The key friction is that agents use different discount rates to evaluate future flows. Eliminating this pecuniary externality generates large reductions in the volatility of real estate prices and credit. Therefore, policies that enhance risk-sharing between lenders and borrowers reduce the magnitude of boom-bust cycles in real estate prices. We also introduce health shocks to study the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial property market.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 6 October 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2477Details
- Abstract
- Climate change is one of the greatest economic challenges of our time. Given the scale of the problem, the question of whether a carbon tax should be introduced is hotly-debated in policy circles. This paper studies the design of a carbon tax when environmental factors, such as air carbon-dioxide emissions (CO2), directly affect agents’ marginal utility of consumption. Our first result is that the optimal tax is determined by the shadow price of CO2 emissions. We then use asset-pricing theory to estimate this implicit price in the data and find that the optimal tax is pro-cyclical. It is therefore optimal to use the carbon tax to “cool down” the economy during booms and stimulate it in recessions. The optimal policy not only generates large welfare gains, it also reduces risk premiums and raises the average risk-free real rate. The effect of the tax on asset prices and welfare critically depends on the emission-abatement technology.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 1 August 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2174Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the effects of money supply shocks in a general equilibrium model that reproduces a term premium of the magnitude observed in the data. In an environment where financial frictions are the main source of monetary non-neutrality, I find that money supply shocks are less effective at stimulating inflation in recessions than in expansions. In terms of quantitative magnitude, the impact effect on inflation of a money supply shock is about half as large during recessions than during booms. This state dependence is essentially due to the time-variation in stochastic discounting that is needed to match the data.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 22 May 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2150Details
- Abstract
- This study augments the neoclassical growth model with a mechanism that creates a novel transmission channel through which financial shocks propagate to the real economy. By affecting agents’ ability to finance consumption expenditures, financial frictions create a demand for safe assets that exposes the economy to asset quality shocks. My main finding is that this mechanism provides a potential explanation for the co-movement observed during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in the eurozone. My results also suggest that these shocks are a plausible source of aggregate risk that could explain business cycle fluctuations as well as standard asset pricing puzzles. Finally, introducing this transmission mechanism into the neoclassical growth model increases the welfare cost of business cycle fluctuations by several orders of magnitude.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
- 9 January 2018
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 205Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears to be subject to fluctuations at both business-cycle and medium-term frequencies, and GDP fluctuations at medium-term frequencies are strongly correlated with cycles in credit and house prices. Cycles in equity prices and long-term interest rates are considerably shorter than those in credit and house prices and have little in common with the latter. Credit and house price cycles are weakly synchronous across countries and their volatilities vary widely – these differences may be related to the structural properties of housing and mortgage markets. Finally, DSGE models can replicate the volatility of cycles in house and equity prices, but not the persistence of house price cycles.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 19 June 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2076Details
- Abstract
- Almost two decades after the introduction of the common currency differences in institutional frameworks remain a major source of cross-country heterogeneity in the eurozone. We develop a two-country model with incomplete international markets in which the availability of credit depends on the country’s institutional environment. Our main finding is that structural differences in domestic credit environments provide an explanation for the procyclicality of net capital inflows observed in the South of Europe. We show that frictions in domestic credit markets generate asymmetries in the transmission mechanism of shocks that are common to both regions.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F20 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→General
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- 28 January 2016
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 167Details
- Abstract
- Although monetary union created the conditions for improving economic and financial integration in the euro area, in the context of the financial and sovereign crises, it has also been accompanied by the emergence of severe imbalances in savings and investment, credit and housing booms in some countries and the allocation of resources towards less productive sectors. The global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis then led to major and abrupt adjustments as the risks posed by the large imbalances materialised. Although the institutional shortcomings in the EU that permitted the emergence of imbalances have been largely addressed since 2008, the adjustment process is not yet complete. From a macroeconomic perspective, the imbalances in the external accounts have led to the accumulation of high levels of external liabilities that need to be reduced, which, in turn, is weakening investment and therefore weighing on growth prospects and growth potential. From a macroprudential perspective, the lingering imbalances have added to systemic risk and rendered the euro area more vulnerable to risks. This Occasional Paper analyses the dynamic patterns in macroeconomic imbalances primarily from the former perspective, addressing in particular the connections between macroeconomic and sectoral adjustments of imbalances and the challenges for economic growth and performance over a longer horizon.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 7 March 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1525Details
- Abstract
- We study the transmission of liquidity shocks in a dynamic general equilibrium model where firms and households are subject to liquidity risk. The provision of liquidity services is undertaken by financial intermediaries that allocate the stock of liquid asset between the different sectors of the economy. We find that the macroeconomic effects of liquidity shocks are considerably larger in the model economy that generates a realistic equity premium. Liquidity constraints amplify business cycle volatility and have nonlinear effects on risk premia. Our empirical analysis suggests that the Great Recession was primarily caused by liquidity factors.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 26 July 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1454Details
- Abstract
- We develop a representative agent model of a production economy in order to explain the joint dynamics of house prices and equity returns. In a model generating costly business cycle fluctuations, we find that restrictions on housing supply have important implications for asset pricing. Together with habit formation in the composite of consumption and leisure, building restrictions provide an explanation for the high volatility of house prices and contribute to the resolution of asset pricing puzzles.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 20 December 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1411Details
- Abstract
- We introduce a specification of habit formation featuring non-separability between consumption and leisure into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. The model can be estimated with standard Bayesian techniques and the bond pricing implications are evaluated using higher-order approximations. The model is able to reproduce a sizeable risk premium on long-term bonds and the cyclicality of fiscal policy has an impact on the bond premium that is quantitatively important. Technology, government spending, and mark-up shocks are the main drivers of the time-variation in bond premia.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
- 30 March 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1163Details
- Abstract
- This article studies the asset pricing and the business cycle implications of habit formation in a production economy with capital adjustment costs and endogenous labour supply. A specification of internal habit in the mix of consumption and leisure which minimizes the wealth effect on labour supply is introduced into an otherwise standard real business cycle model. This mechanism enhances the model's ability to explain asset pricing puzzles.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- 2020
- Review of Economic Dynamics
- 2018
- Journal of Financial Stability
- 2018
- Journal of the European Economic Association
- 2014
- Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
- 2011
- The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Contributions)