Marek Jarociński
Research
- Division
-
Monetary Policy Research
- Current Position
-
Principal Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
- Other current responsibilities
- 2014-
Secretary, Editorial Board of the ECB Working Papers Series
- Education
- 2000-2006
PhD in Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- 1996-1997
MSc in Economics, KU Leuven, Belgium
- 1992-1996
BA in Economics, Warsaw University, Poland
- Professional experience
- 2006-
Economist/Senior/Principal Economist in Monetary Policy Research Division, International Policy Analysis Division, Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division
- 1997-2000
Researcher - Center for Social and Economic Research CASE, Warsaw
- Awards
- 2021
American Economic Journal Best Paper Award (for "Deconstructing monetary policy surprises - The Role of Information Shocks")
- 2006
Klaus Liebscher Award - award from the Central Bank of Austria for the paper Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison
- Teaching experience
- 2008-
Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, Bayesian time series courses in the Master of Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets
- 2009-2017
Short courses at the European Central Bank (2009,2010), Goethe University Frankfurt (2012), Deutsche Bundesbank (2013), Barcelona Macroeconometrics Summer School (2013-2015), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2014), Center for Central Banking Studies of the Bank of England (2014), London Business School (2017)
- 25 January 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 852Details
- Abstract
- Many factors inhibiting and facilitating economic growth have been suggested. Will international income data tell which matter when all are treated symmetrically a priori? We find that growth determinants emerging from agnostic Bayesian model averaging and classical model selection procedures are sensitive to income differences across datasets. For example, many of the 1975-1996 growth determinants according to World Bank income data turn out to be irrelevant when using Penn World Table data instead (the WB adjusts for purchasing power using a slightly different methodology). And each revision of the 1960-1996 PWT income data brings substantial changes regarding growth determinants. We show that research based on stronger priors about potential growth determinants is more robust to imperfect international income data.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 30 April 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 891Details
- Abstract
- This paper estimates a Bayesian VAR for the US economy which includes a housing sector and addresses the following questions. Can developments in the housing sector be explained on the basis of developments in real and nominal GDP and interest rates? What are the effects of housing demand shocks on the economy? How does monetary policy affect the housing market? What are the implications of house price developments for the stance of monetary policy? Regarding the latter question, we implement a version of a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) due to Céspedes et al. (2006).
- JEL Code
- E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
- 30 November 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 970Details
- Abstract
- This paper compares impulse responses to monetary policy shocks in the euro area countries before the EMU and in the New Member States (NMS) from central-eastern Europe. We mitigate the small sample problem, which is especially acute for the NMS, by using a Bayesian estimation that combines information across countries. The impulse responses in the NMS are broadly similar to those in the euro area countries. There is some evidence that in the NMS, which have had higher and more volatile inflation, the Phillips curve is steeper than in the euro area countries. This finding is consistent with economic theory.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 August 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1234Details
- Abstract
- The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from the model. This paper, instead, advocates priors that impose parsimony without excluding variables. The resulting models fit the data better and are more robust to revisions of income data. The positive relationship between measures of trade openness and growth is much stronger than found in the literature.
- JEL Code
- C20 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→General
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 3 November 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1263Details
- Abstract
- We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are usually arbitrary and our prior serves to replace them in an intuitive way. To implement this prior we develop a technique for translating priors about observables into priors about parameters. We find that our prior makes a big difference for the estimated persistence of output responses to monetary policy shocks in the United States.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 16 October 2013
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1600Details
- Abstract
- A researcher is interested in a set of variables that he wants to model with a vector auto-regression and he has a dataset with more variables. Which variables from the dataset to include in the VAR, in addition to the variables of interest? This question arises in many applications of VARs, in prediction and impulse response analysis. We develop a Bayesian methodology to answer this question. We rely on the idea of Granger-causal-priority, related to the well-known concept of Granger-non-causality. The methodology is simple to use, because we provide closed-form expressions for the relevant posterior probabilities. Applying the methodology to the case when the variables of interest are output, the price level, and the short-term interest rate, we find remarkably similar results for the United States and the euro area.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 16 November 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1867Details
- Abstract
- The correct implementation of the Durbin and Koopman simulation smoother is explained. A possible misunderstanding is pointed out and clarified for both the basic state space model with a non-zero mean of the initial state and with time-varying intercepts (mean adjustments).
- JEL Code
- C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- 1 July 2016
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 24Details
- Abstract
- The estimates of the output gap depend on the features of the models used to derive them. We discriminate among different estimates on the basis of their ability to forecast inflation. Our analysis suggests that output in the euro area was 6% lower than potential in 2014 and 2015, which is substantially below institutional estimates.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 19 September 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1966Details
- Abstract
- Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area we estimate the deviations of output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been much larger than the official estimates. Versions featuring a secular-stagnation-like slowdown in trend growth, and hence a small output gap after 2011, do not adequately capture the inflation developments.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 15 December 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1988Details
- Abstract
- The euro area has been experiencing a prolonged period of weak economic activity and very low inflation. This paper reviews models of business cycle stabilization with an eye to formulating lessons for policy in the euro area. According to standard models, after a large recessionary shock accommodative monetary and fiscal policy together may be necessary to stabilize economic activity and inflation. The paper describes practical ways for the euro area to be able to implement an effective monetary-fiscal policy mix.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy - Network
- Discussion papers
- 25 January 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2000Details
- Abstract
- In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such a model reveals, among others, that domestic factors explain much of the inflation dynamics in the 2012-2014 euro area missing inflation episode. Consequently, economists and models that excessively focused on the global nature of inflation were liable to miss the contribution of deflationary domestic shocks during this episode.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles - Network
- Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
- 26 January 2017
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 30Details
- Abstract
- Recent inflation “puzzles” disappear in a model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors and captures their changing importance over time. While global factors are often important, domestic factors explain much of the inflation dynamics in the recent missing inflation episode in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
- 9 June 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2072Details
- Abstract
- When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, output, inflation, and government bond default premia are indeterminate according to a standard general equilibrium model with sticky prices extended to include defaultable public debt. With sunspots, the model mimics the recent euro area data. We specify an alternative configuration of monetary and fiscal policy, with a non-defaultable eurobond. If this policy arrangement had been in place since the onset of the Great Recession, output could have been much higher than in the data with inflation in line with the ECB’s objective.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 29 June 2017
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 36Details
- Abstract
- When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, self-fulfilling expectations of economic agents can lead to undesirable fluctuations in output, inflation and government bond spreads. An alternative policy arrangement would enable more effective macroeconomic stabilisation.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 27 February 2018
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2133Details
- Abstract
- Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy non-neutrality. We make this point formally and offer an interpretation of the central bank information shock using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with financial frictions.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 21 September 2018
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 50Details
- Abstract
- Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the economic outlook. We use changes in interest rate expectations and stock prices around the time of policy announcements to disentangle the impact of news about monetary policy from that of news about the economic outlook. We find that both play a significant role in the dynamics of inflation and economic growth, and that controlling for news about the economy helps us to measure more accurately the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 13 May 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2407Details
- Abstract
- This paper estimates and compares the international transmission of European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve System monetary policy in a unified and methodologically consistent framework. It identifies pure monetary policy shocks by purging them of the bias stemming from contemporaneous central bank information effects. The results suggest that there is a hierarchy in the global spillovers from ECB and Federal Reserve monetary policy: while the spillovers to consumer prices are relatively small in both directions, Federal Reserve monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on euro area financial markets and real activity. Federal Reserve monetary policy also has a significantly larger impact than ECB monetary policy on real and financial variables in the rest of the world.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 18 August 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2458Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines which measures of financial conditions are informative about the tail risks to output growth in the euro area. The Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) is more informative than indicators focusing on narrower segments of financial markets or their simple aggregation in the principal component. Conditionally on the CISS one can reproduce for the euro area the stylized facts known from the US, such as the strong negative correlation between conditional mean and conditional variance that generates stable upper quantiles and volatile lower quantiles of output growth.
- JEL Code
- C12 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Hypothesis Testing: General
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 15 October 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2482Details
- Abstract
- The news about the economy contained in a central bank announcement can affect public expectations. This paper shows, using both event studies and vector autoregressions, that such central bank information effects are an important channel of the transatlantic spillover of monetary policy. They account for a part of the co-movement of German and US government bond yields around Fed policy announcements, and for most of this co-movement around ECB policy announcements, explaining the puzzling responses of US variables.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 15 April 2021
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 83Details
- Abstract
- ECB and Federal Reserve monetary policy both spill over to other countries. But these spillovers are asymmetric. Federal Reserve monetary policy shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the euro area and the rest of the world, mainly by affecting financial conditions globally. Conversely, ECB monetary policy shocks have little impact on the US economy and on global financial conditions, but still significantly affect global trade and economic activity, especially in emerging markets.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 2020
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- 2020
- Economics Letters
- 2019
- International Journal of Central Banking
- 2019
- European Journal of Political Economy
- 2019
- Journal of Econometrics
- 2018
- Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
- 2018
- Journal of International Economics
- 2017
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- 2015
- Computational Statistics and Data Analysis
- 2010
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
- 2010
- Journal of Applied Econometrics
- 2010
- Economics Letters
- 2008
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review