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Georg Strasser

Research

Division

Monetary Policy Research

Current Position

Principal Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics,Financial Economics

Email

Georg.Strasser@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2008

PhD in Economics, University of Pennsylvania, United States of America

2000

Diplom-Wirtschaftsingenieur, Universität Karlsruhe, Germany

1998

MA in Economics, University of Southern California, United States of America

Professional experience
2015-

Senior Economist – Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank, Germany

2008-2015

Assistant Professor – Department of Economics, Boston College, United States of America

Teaching experience
2014-2015

International Finance (PhD level) – Department of Economics, Boston College, United States of America

2009-2014

Macroeconomic Theory (Bachelor level) – Department of Economics, Boston College, United States of America

2009-2013

Empirical International Finance (PhD level) – Department of Economics, Boston College, United States of America

5 February 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1882
Details
Abstract
The literature documents a heterogeneous asset price response to macroeconomic news announcements: Some announcements have a strong impact on asset prices and others do not. In order to explain these differences, we estimate a novel measure of the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic announcement, which we define as the announcement's ability to nowcast GDP growth, inflation, and the Federal Funds Target Rate. Using the same nowcasting framework, we then decompose this intrinsic value into the announcement's characteristics: its relation to fundamentals, timing, and revision noise. We find that in the 1998
JEL Code
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
2 May 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1901
Details
Abstract
We examine stock index and Treasury futures markets around releases of U.S. macroeconomic announcements. Seven out of 21 market-moving announcements show evidence of substantial informed trading before the official release time. Prices begin to move in the \correct" direction about 30 minutes before the release time. The pre-announcement price drift accounts on average for about half of the total price adjustment. These results imply that some traders have private information about macroeconomic fundamentals. The evidence suggests that the pre-announcement drift likely comes from a combination of information leakage and superior forecasting based on proprietary data collection and reprocessing of public information.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
12 May 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2059
Details
Abstract
We study cross-country price differences in the European market for new passenger cars based on detailed pricing and technical data. Car prices in Europe converged until the year 2003, but not thereafter. Within the EU 15 countries the price range of the median model in 2004 was close to 20 percent. We document a source of international price differentiation, which is not related to distribution and border costs, but instead systematically linked to product features. Price dispersion increases with the market segment and varies significantly across models. Marketing appears to position identical goods differently in each country, for example by feature bundles tailored to local consumer preferences. Both the convergence before the actual reduction of barriers to arbitrage and the systematic international price differentiation by product feature point to active pricing-to-market strategies that treat countries as marketing regions.
JEL Code
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
21 June 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2080
Details
Abstract
Monetary policy communication is particularly important during unconventional times because high uncertainty about the economy, the introduction of new policy tools and possible limits to the central bank’s toolkit could hamper the predictability of policy actions. We study how monetary policy communication should and has worked under such circumstances. Our main results relate to announcements of asset purchase programmes and the use of forward guidance. We show that announcements of asset purchase programmes have lowered market uncertainty, particularly when accompanied by a contextual release of implementation details such as the envisaged size of the programme. We also show that forward guidance reduces uncertainty more effectively when it is state‐contingent or when it provides guidance about a long horizon than when it is open‐ended or covers only a short horizon, and that the credibility of forward guidance is strengthened if the central bank also has embarked on an asset purchase programme.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Network
Discussion papers
25 July 2017
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 37
Details
Abstract
The most important determinant of an announcement’s impact on bond markets is its relationship to fundamentals, closely followed by its timing. Information which is imprecise but early can affect markets more than news which is precise but late.
JEL Code
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
16 May 2018
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 46
Details
Abstract
The dispersion of prices between Member States of the European Union (EU) is a popular indicator of the economic integration of the internal market. Car prices in the EU converged from the 1990s until the year 2003, after which this development ceased. The remaining price dispersion between countries is systematically linked to product features, reflecting manufacturer pricing-to-market.
JEL Code
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
L62 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Manufacturing→Automobiles, Other Transportation Equipment
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
15 April 2019
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2263
Details
Abstract
Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond yields to macroeconomic news, and on forecaster disagreement about the future path of interest rates. We show that forward guidance mutes the response to macroeconomic news in general, but that calendar-based forward guidance with a short horizon counterintuitively raises it. Using a model where agents learn from market signals, we show that the release of more precise public information about future rates lowers the informativeness of market signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news. However, when the increase in precision of public information is sufficiently large, uncertainty is unambiguously reduced.
JEL Code
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 July 2019
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 61
Details
Abstract
Forward guidance, i.e. communication by a central bank about the likely future path of interest rates, usually reduces uncertainty. But it matters how this is done in practice, because forward guidance with a short time horizon can raise uncertainty. This occurs if the forward guidance impairs the aggregation of private information in financial markets, thus making market prices less informative.
JEL Code
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 May 2020
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2407
Details
Abstract
This paper estimates and compares the international transmission of European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve System monetary policy in a unified and methodologically consistent framework. It identifies pure monetary policy shocks by purging them of the bias stemming from contemporaneous central bank information effects. The results suggest that there is a hierarchy in the global spillovers from ECB and Federal Reserve monetary policy: while the spillovers to consumer prices are relatively small in both directions, Federal Reserve monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on euro area financial markets and real activity. Federal Reserve monetary policy also has a significantly larger impact than ECB monetary policy on real and financial variables in the rest of the world.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
Network
Research Task Force (RTF)
15 April 2021
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 83
Details
Abstract
ECB and Federal Reserve monetary policy both spill over to other countries. But these spillovers are asymmetric. Federal Reserve monetary policy shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the euro area and the rest of the world, mainly by affecting financial conditions globally. Conversely, ECB monetary policy shocks have little impact on the US economy and on global financial conditions, but still significantly affect global trade and economic activity, especially in emerging markets.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F3 : International Economics→International Finance
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
2019
Journal of Monetary Economics
  • M. Ehrmann, G. Gaballo, P. Hoffmann and G. Strasser
2019
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
  • A. Kurov, A. Sancetta, G. Strasser and M. H. Wolfe
2018
Journal of International Economics
  • E. Dvir and G. Strasser
2017
Journal of Monetary Economics
  • T. Gilbert, C. Scotti, G. Strasser and C. Vega
2014
Journal of Economic Education
  • G. Strasser and M. H. Wolfe
2013
Journal of Monetary Economics
  • G. Strasser
2013
Review of Economic Studies
  • F. X. Diebold and G. Strasser
2018
S. Eijffinger and D. Masciandaro (eds.): Hawks and Doves: Deeds and Words – Economics and Politics of Monetary Policymaking
More, and More Forward-Looking: Central Bank Communication After the Crisis
  • G. Coenen, M. Ehrmann, G. Gaballo, P. Hoffmann, A. Nakov, S. Nardelli, E. Persson and G. Strasser
2019
VoxEU
  • M. Ehrmann, G. Gaballo, P. Hoffmann and G. Strasser