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Ehrmann, Michael

Research

Division

Monetary Policy Research

Current position

Head of Division

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,
International Economics

Email

michael.ehrmann@ecb.europa.eu

Other current responsibilities
  • 2019-
    Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research
  • 2016-
    Editorial Board of the ECB’s Research Bulletin (European Central Bank)
  • 2016-
    Member of Wim Duisenberg Fellow Selection Committee (European Central Bank)
Education
  • 1996-2000
    PhD in Economics, European University Institute, Florence, Italy
Professional experience
  • 2016-
    Head of Division - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank
  • 2015-2016
    Chief of Economic and Financial Research - Bank of Canada
  • 2013-2015
    Research Director - Bank of Canada
  • 2000-2013
    Various positions - Directorate General Research and Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
Teaching experience
  • 2007-2012
    Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany
  • 2006
    Free University Berlin, Germany

ECB Working Paper Series

2020
Ehrmann, Michael, Jansen, David-Jan
Stock return comovement when investors are distracted: more, and more homogeneous
No 2412
2019
Ehrmann, Michael, Gaballo, Gaetano, Hoffmann, Peter, Strasser, Georg
Can more public information raise uncertainty? The international evidence on forward guidance
No 2263
2017
Coenen, Günter, Ehrmann, Michael, Gaballo, Gaetano, Hoffmann, Peter, Nakov, Anton, Nardelli, Stefano, Persson, Eric, Strasser, Georg
Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times
No 2080
Blinder, Alan S., Ehrmann, Michael, de Haan, Jakob, Jansen, David-Jan
Necessity as the mother of invention: monetary policy after the crisis
No 2047
Ehrmann, Michael, Talmi, Jonathan
Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility
No 2023
Ehrmann, Michael, Ampudia, Miguel
Financial inclusion: what’s it worth?
No 1990
2014
Ehrmann, Michael, Ampudia, Miguel
Macroeconomic experiences and risk taking of euro area households
No 1652
Ehrmann, Michael, Ziegelmeyer, Michael
Household risk management and actual mortgage choice in the euro area
No 1631
2013
Ehrmann, Michael, Osbat, Chiara, Stráský, Jan, Uusküla, Lenno
The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis - dancing to its own tune?
No 1532
Ehrmann, Michael, D'Agostino, Antonello
The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads: the times, they are a-changin
No 1520
2012
Ehrmann, Michael, Stracca, Livio, Soudan, Michel
Explaining EU citizens’ trust in the ECB in normal and crisis times
No 1501
Ehrmann, Michael, Jansen, David-Jan
The pitch rather than the pit: investor inattention during FIFA world cup matches
No 1424
2011
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel, Mehl, Arnaud, Bekaert, Geert
Global crises and equity market contagion
No 1381
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel, Born, Benjamin
Central bank communication on financial stability
No 1332
2010
Ehrmann, Michael, Eijffinger, Sylvester, Fratzscher, Marcel
The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts
No 1146
2009
Ehrmann, Michael, Tzamourani, Panagiota
Memories of high inflation
No 1095
Ehrmann, Michael, Sondermann, David
The reception of public signals in financial markets - what if central bank communication becomes stale?
No 1077
2008
Blinder, Alan S., Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel, de Haan, Jakob, Jansen, David-Jan
Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence
No 898
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Purdah: on the rationale for central bank silence around policy meetings
No 868
2007
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Social value of public information: testing the limits to transparency
No 821
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel, Swanson, Eric, Gürkaynak, Refet S.
Convergence and anchoring of yield curves in the euro area
No 817
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Explaining monetary policy in press conferences
No 767
2006
Berger, Helge, Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?
No 695
Berger, Helge, Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Monetary policy in the media
No 679
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Global financial transmission of monetary policy shocks
No 616
Ehrmann, Michael
Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover
No 588
Berger, Helge, Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography
No 578
2005
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
The timing of central bank communication
No 565
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
How should central banks communicate?
No 557
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?
No 488
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Transparency, disclosure and the federal reserve
No 457
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel, Rigobon, Roberto
Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission
No 452
2004
Angeloni, Ignazio, Ehrmann, Michael
Euro area inflation differentials
No 388
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data
No 365
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets
No 354
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Equal size, equal role? Interdependence between the euro area and the United States
No 342
2003
Ehrmann, Michael, Backé, Peter
Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?
No 240
2002
Ehrmann, Michael, Fratzscher, Marcel
Interdependence between the euro area and the US: what role for EMU?
No 200
2001
Ehrmann, Michael, Gambacorta, Leonardo, Martínez Pagés, Jorge, Sevestre, Patrick, Worms, Andreas
Financial systems and the role of banks in monetary policy transmission in the euro area
No 105
Ehrmann, Michael, Worms, Andreas
Interbank lending and monetary policy transmission - evidence for Germany
No 73
Ehrmann, Michael, Smets, Frank
Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy
No 59
2000
Ehrmann, Michael
Firm size and monetary policy transmission: evidence from German business survey data
No 21

ECB Occasional Paper Series

2009
Household Finance Consumption Network

Kennickell, Arthur, Fitzpatrick, Trevor, Ehrmann, Michael, Bonci, Riccardo, Museux, Jean-Marc, Honkkila, Juha, Vilmunen, Jouko, Herrala, Risto, Komprej, Irena, Jeran, Matjaž, Geršak, Uroš, Brelih, Matej, Farinha, Luísa, Schürz, Martin, Forsells, Magnus, Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, Haliassos, Michael, Guiso, Luigi, Zeleny, Martin, Winkler, Bernhard, Willeke, Caroline, Vermeulen, Philip, Slacalek, Jiri, Skudelny, Frauke, Sandars, Patrick, Sánchez Muñoz, Carlos, Pérez-Duarte, Sébastien, Lodge, David, Hahn, Elke, Fessler, Pirmin, Beer, Christian, Bover, Olympia, Barceló, Cristina, Tzamourani, Panagiota, Mitrakos, Theodoros, Akantziliotou, Calliope, Menton, Aisling, Lawless, Martina, Keeney, Mary, Grabka, Markus, Schmidt, Tobias, Von Kalckreuth, Ulf, Stinglhamber, Pierrick, Villanueva, Ernesto, Savignac, Frédérique, van Rooij, Maarten, Teppa, Federica, van Renselaar, Corry, Prast, Henriëtte M., Pace, Christopher, Caruana, Karen, Mathä, Thomas Y., Haroutunian, Stephan, Viviano, Eliana, Iezzi, Stefano, Faiella, Ivan, Houdré, Cédric, Sevestre, Patrick, de Greef, Isabelle

Survey data on household finance and consumption: research summary and policy use
No 100
2008
Blattner, Tobias Sebastian, Catenaro, Marco, Ehrmann, Michael, Strauch, Rolf, Turunen, Jarkko
The predictability of monetary policy
No 83
2006
Ehrmann, Michael, Smets, Frank, Altissimo, Filippo
Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence
No 46

ECB Economic Bulletin Article

2018
Ehrmann, Michael, Ferrucci, Gianluigi, Lenza, Michele, O'Brien, Derry
Measures of underlying inflation for the euro area

ECB Research bulletin

2019
Ehrmann, Michael, Gaballo, Gaetano, Hoffmann, Peter, Strasser, Georg
How to signal the future path of interest rates? The international evidence on forward guidance
No 61
2017
Blinder, Alan S., Ehrmann, Michael, de Haan, Jakob, Jansen, David-Jan
What will monetary policy look like after the crisis?
No 39

Journal publications

2020
Christelis, D., M. Ehrmann and D. Georgarakos
Exploring Differences in Household Debt across Euro Area Countries and the United States
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming
Ehrmann, M. and J. Talmi
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility
Journal of Monetary Economics
Ehrmann, M. and P. Schure
The European Systemic Risk Board – Governance and Early Experience
Journal of Economic Policy Reform
2019
Ehrmann, M., G. Gaballo, P. Hoffmann and G. Strasser
Can More Public Information Raise Uncertainty? The International Evidence on Forward Guidance
Journal of Monetary Economics
2017
Ehrmann, M. and Ampudia, M.
Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk-Taking of Euro Area Households
European Economic Review
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Euro Area Government Bonds—Fragmentation and Contagion During the Sovereign Debt Crisis
Journal of International Money and Finance
Blinder, A., Ehrmann, M., De Haan, J. and Jansen, D.J.
Necessity as the Mother of Invention: Monetary Policy after the Crisis
Economic Policy, Vol. 32(92), pp.707-755
Ehrmann, M. and Ziegelmeyer, M.
Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Ehrmann, M. and Jansen, D.J.
The Pitch Rather Than The Pit: Investor Inattention During FIFA World Cup Matches
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Ehrmann, M., Pfajfar, D. and Santoro, E.
Consumers’ Attitudes and their Inflation Expectations
International Journal of Central Banking
2016
Ehrmann, M. and Jansen, D.J.
It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team is About to Lose a Soccer Match
Review of Finance
2015
Ehrmann, M.
Targeting Inflation from Below – How do Inflation Expectations Behave?
International Journal of Central Banking
2014
Bekaert, G., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. and Mehl, A.
The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion
Journal of Finance
D'Agostino, A. and Ehrmann, M.
The Pricing of G7 Sovereign Bond Spreads – The Times, They are A-Changin
Journal of Banking and Finance
Ehrmann, M., Osbat, C., Uusküla, L. and Strasky, J.
The Euro Exchange Rate during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis – Dancing to its own Tune?
Journal of International Money and Finance
Born, B., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Central Bank Communication on Financial Stability
Economic Journal
2013
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Dispersed Communication by Central Bank Committees and the Predictability of Monetary Policy Decisions
Public Choice
Ehrmann, M., Soudan, M. and Stracca, L.
Explaining EU Citizens’ Trust in the ECB in Normal and Crisis Times
Scandinavian Journal of Economics
2012
Ehrmann, M. and Sondermann, D.
The News Content of Macroeconomic Announcements - What if Central Bank Communication Becomes Stale?
International Journal of Central Banking
Born, B., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Communicating About Macroprudential Supervision – a New Challenge for Central Banks
International Finance
Ehrmann, M., Eijffinger, S. and Fratzscher, M.
The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts
Scandinavian Journal of Economics
Ehrmann, M. and Tzamourani, T.
Memories of High Inflation
European Journal of Political Economy
2011
Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. and Rigobon, R.
Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission
Journal of Applied Econometrics
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Politics and Monetary Policy
Review of Economics and Statistics
Berger, H., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Monetary Policy in the Media
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Berger, H., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Geography, Skills or Both: What Explains Fed Watchers’ Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?
Journal of Macroeconomics
Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., Gürkaynak, R. and Swanson, E.
Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area
Review of Economics and Statistics
Ehrmann, M.
Inflation Developments and Perceptions After the Euro Cash Changeover
German Economic Review
2009
Berger, H., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy: Accuracy Is a Matter of Geography
European Economic Review
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Explaining Monetary Policy in Press Conferences
International Journal of Central Banking
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Purdah – On the Rationale for Central Bank Silence Around Policy Meetings
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
2008
Blinder, A., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J. and Jansen, D.J.
Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence
Journal of Economic Literature
2007
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Communication and Decision-Making by Central Bank Committees: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Transparency, Disclosure and the Federal Reserve
International Journal of Central Banking
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
The Timing of Central Bank Communication
European Journal of Political Economy
Angeloni, I. and Ehrmann, M.
Euro Area Inflation Differentials
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Topics)
2006
Artis, M. and Ehrmann, M.
The Exchange Rate – A Shock Absorber or Source of Shocks? A Study of 4 Open Economies
Journal of International Money and Finance
Angeloni, I., Aucremanne, L., Ehrmann, M., Galí, J., Levin, A. and Smets, F.
New Evidence on Inflation Persistence and Price Stickiness in the Euro Area: Implications for Macro Modelling
Journal of the European Economic Association
2005
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the US
Economic Journal
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: New Evidence from Real-Time Data
Journal of International Money and Finance
2004
Ehrmann, M. and Worms, A.
Bank Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission
Journal of the European Economic Association
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Taking Stock: Monetary Policy Transmission to Equity Markets
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
2003
Angeloni, I. and Ehrmann, M.
Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Early Evidence
Economic Policy
Chatelain, J.-B., Ehrmann, M., Generale, A., Martinez-Pages, J., Vermeulen, P. and Worms, A.
Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area – Evidence from Micro Data on Banks and Firms
Journal of the European Economic Association
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Monetary Policy Announcements and Money Markets: A Transatlantic Perspective
International Finance
Ehrmann, M., Gambacorta, L., Martinez-Pages, J., Sevestre, P. and Worms, A.
The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Ehrmann, M. and Smets, F.
Uncertain Potential Output: Implications for Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Ehrmann, M., Ellison, M. and Valla, N.
Regime-Dependent Impulse Response Functions in a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression Model
Economics Letters
2000
Ehrmann, M.
Comparing Monetary Policy Transmission Across European Countries
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv

Other publications

2018
Coenen, G., Ehrmann, M., Gaballo, G., Hoffmann, P., Nakov, A., Nardelli, S., Persson, E. and Strasser, G.
More, and more forward-looking: Central bank communication after the crisis
S. Eijffinger and D. Masciandaro (eds.), Hawks and Doves: Deeds and Words. Economics and Politics of Monetary Policymaking
Blinder, A., Ehrmann, M., De Haan, J. and Jansen, J.
Central bank policies after the crisis
S. Eijffinger and D. Masciandaro (eds.), Hawks and Doves: Deeds and Words. Economics and Politics of Monetary Policymaking
2013
Berger, H., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Extreme Views Make News
J.-E- Sturm and P. Siklos (eds.), Central Bank Communication, Decision Making and Governance
2011
Born, B., Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
How Should Central Banks Deal with a Financial Stability Objective? The Evolving Role of Communication as a Policy Instrument
S. Eijffinger and D. Masciandaro (eds.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision After the Financial Crisis
2009
Ehrmann, M. and Fratzscher, M.
Designing a Central Bank Communication Strategy
D. Mayes and G. Wood (eds.), Designing Central Banks
2006
Angeloni, I. and Ehrmann, M.
Reasons and Implications of Inflation Differentials in the European Monetary Union
H. Berger and T. Moutos (eds.), Designing the New European Union
Angeloni, I. and Ehrmann, M.
Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: Any Changes After EMU?
L. Klein (ed.), Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Stabilization; Essays in Honor of Albert Ando
2004
Ehrmann, M.
Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from German Business Survey Data
Sturm, J.-E. and T. Wollmershäuser (eds.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis
2003
Ehrmann, M., Gambacorta, L., Martinez-Pages, J., Sevestre, P. and Worms, A.
Financial Systems and the Role of Banks in Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area
Angeloni, I., Kashyap, A. and B. Mojon (eds.), Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area
2002
Cecchetti, S.G. and Ehrmann, M.
Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes
N. Loayza and K. Schmidt-Hebbel (eds.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms