Coenen, Günter
Economics
Division
Forecasting and Policy Modelling
Current position
Head of Division
Fields of interest
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
Other current responsibilities
Education
Professional experience
Awards
ECB Working Paper Series
2018
2017
2013
2012
2010
2008
2007
2005
2004
2003
Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero
No 231
No 231
2002
Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan
No 181
No 181
2001
2000
1999
ECB Research bulletin
Journal publications
2017
Marginalized predictive likelihood comparisons of linear Gaussian state-space models with applications to DSGE, DSGE-VAR, and VAR models
Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 32(1), pp. 103-119
2014
Risks to price stability, the zero lower bound and forward guidance: A real-time assessment
International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 10(2), pp. 7-54
2013
Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 37(2), pp. 367-386
2012
Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the euro area
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 102(3), pp. 71-76
Effects of fiscal stimulus in structural models
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 4(1), pp. 22-68
2010
DSGE models and their use at the ECB
SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Vol. 1(1-2), pp. 51-65
2008
Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: Long-run benefits and short-run costs
Economic Modelling, Vol. 25(5), pp. 912-932
Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 32(8), pp. 2543-2583
2007
Identifying the influences of nominal and real rigidities in aggregate price-setting behavior
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 54(8), pp. 2439-2466
Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 31(1), pp. 111-140
2005
Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area
International Finance, Vol. 8(3), pp. 435-470
The performance and robustness of interest-rate rules in models of the euro area
International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 1(1), pp. 95-132
A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities
European Economic Review, Vol. 49(5), pp. 1081-1104
Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy
European Economic Review, Vol. 49(4), pp. 975-1006
Asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of vector autoregressive models
Empirical Economics, Vol. 30(1), pp. 65-75
2004
Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero
Advances in Macroeconomics, Vol. 4(1), Article 1
Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates
American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 94(2), pp. 80-84
2003
The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 50(5), pp. 1071-1101
Persistence, the transmission mechanism and robust monetary policy
Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 50(5), pp. 527-549
2001
1995
Das Sattelpunktproblem in der monetären Wechselkurstheorie
WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, Vol. 24(8), pp. 430-433
Other publications
1997
Intertemporale Substitution in der Realen Konjunkturtheorie: Eine empirische Untersuchung unter Verwendung simulationsgestützter indirekter Schätz- und Testverfahren
Haag+Herchen, Frankfurt am Main, Dissertation
2018
More, and more forward-looking: Central bank communication after the crisis
Hawks and Doves: Deeds and Words - Economics and Politics of Monetary Policymaking, Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger and Donato Masciandaro (eds), CEPR Press, London, Chapter 13, pp. 125-133
2017
DSGE models and counterfactual analysis
DSGE Models in the Conduct of Policy: Use as Intended, Refet S. Gürkaynak and Cédric Tille (eds), CEPR Press, London, Chapter 7, pp. 70-82
2011
Forecasting with DSGE models
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry (eds), Oxford University Press, Oxford, Chapter 4, pp. 89-127
2010
International transmission and monetary policy cooperation
International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, Jordi Galí and Mark Gertler (eds), NBER, Cambridge, M.A., Chapter 3, pp. 157-192
2003
Zero lower bound: Is it a problem in the euro area?
Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Otmar Issing (ed.), European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, pp. 139-155
Downward nominal wage rigidity and the long-run Phillips curve: Simulation-based evidence for the euro area
Background Studies for the ECB’s Evaluation of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Otmar Issing (ed.), European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, pp. 127-138
1998
Inflation versus monetary targeting in a P-star model with rational expectations
Topics in Monetary Policy Modeling, BIS (ed.), BIS Conference Papers Vol. 4, Bank for International Settlements, Basle, pp. 215-234
2011
Extended version of 'Fiscal policy and the Great Recession in the euro area', American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 102(3)
Manuscript, European Central Bank
2010
2009
Extending the NAWM with a partial indexation mechanism linking wages and trend productivity
Manuscript, European Central Bank
2006
How do VAT changes affect the economy? An illustration using the New Area-Wide Model
Research Bulletin No. 4, European Central Bank
Discussion of 'The New-Keynesian Phillips curve when inflation is non-stationary: The case of Canada' by Nicoletta Batini and Bergljot Bjørnson Barkbu
Issues in Inflation Targeting, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, pp. 82-87
2004
Extended summary of 'The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan', Journal of Monetary Economics 50(5)
2003 Japan Conference: A Summary of the Papers, NBER, Cambridge, M.A., pp. 8-9
Extended version of 'Exchange-rate policy and the zero bound on nominal interest rates', American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 94(2)
Manuscript, European Central Bank
1999
Discussion of 'Monetary transmission and controllability of money in Europe: A structural vector error correction approach', by Peter Vlaar and Helene Schuberth
De Nederlandsche Bank, Staff Report No. 36, pp. 35-43
1998
Evaluating monetary policy rules in a P-star model with rational expectations using indirect inference
Manuscript, Deutsche Bundesbank
Intertemporal effects of fiscal consolidation in an RBC model
Discussion Paper of the Research Group of the Deutsche Bundesbank 2/98
1995
A further note on computing competitive equilibria in linear-quadratic models
Manuscript, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Kiel
1992
Eine Einführung in die Analyse linearer sattelpunktstabiler Systeme
Arbeiten aus dem Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie der Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel No. 66