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Bartosz Maćkowiak

Research

Division

Monetary Policy Research

Current Position

Lead Economist

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

Email

bartosz.mackowiak@ecb.europa.eu

Education
1996-2002

PhD in Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States

1992-1996

BA in Economics, Amherst College, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States

Professional experience
2020-

Lead Economist - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank

2013-

Research Fellow - Centre for Economic Policy Research

2017-2019

Principal Economist - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank

2016-2019

Guest Lecturer - London Business School, United Kingdom

2012-2017

Senior Economist - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank

2006-2013

Research Affiliate - Centre for Economic Policy Research

2007-2011

Economist - Monetary Policy Research Division, Directorate General Research, European Central Bank

2002-2007

Junior Professor - Department of Economics, Humboldt University Berlin, Germany

12 November 2008
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 960
Details
Abstract
We review the recent literature that studies new, detailed micro data on prices. We discuss implications of the new micro data for macro models. We argue that the new micro data are helpful for macro models, but not decisive. There is no simple mapping from the frequency of price changes in micro data to impulse responses of prices and quantities to shocks. We discuss ideas that promise to deliver macro models matching the impulse responses seen in macro data while being broadly in line with micro data.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
19 February 2009
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1009
Details
Abstract
This paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to, subject to a constraint on information flow. When idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions, firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions. When we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data, prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks, but prices react only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks. Nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects. We use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms’ environment.
JEL Code
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
20 April 2011
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1331
Details
Abstract
We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention by households and firms. Consumption responds slowly to interest rate changes because households decide to pay little attention to the real interest rate. Prices respond quickly to some shocks and slowly to other shocks. The mix of fast and slow responses of prices to shocks matches the pattern found in the empirical literature. Changes in the conduct of monetary policy yield very different outcomes than in models currently used at central banks because systematic changes in policy cause reallocation of attention by decision-makers in households and firms.
JEL Code
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
16 October 2013
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1600
Details
Abstract
A researcher is interested in a set of variables that he wants to model with a vector auto-regression and he has a dataset with more variables. Which variables from the dataset to include in the VAR, in addition to the variables of interest? This question arises in many applications of VARs, in prediction and impulse response analysis. We develop a Bayesian methodology to answer this question. We rely on the idea of Granger-causal-priority, related to the well-known concept of Granger-non-causality. The methodology is simple to use, because we provide closed-form expressions for the relevant posterior probabilities. Applying the methodology to the case when the variables of interest are output, the price level, and the short-term interest rate, we find remarkably similar results for the United States and the euro area.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
21 August 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1841
Details
Abstract
The world recently experienced several rare events with disastrous consequences: the global financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis, and the Fukushima nuclear accident. These events have in common that key decision-makers were unprepared for them, which aggravated these events. We develop a model in which agents make state-contingent plans
JEL Code
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
15 December 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1988
Details
Abstract
The euro area has been experiencing a prolonged period of weak economic activity and very low inflation. This paper reviews models of business cycle stabilization with an eye to formulating lessons for policy in the euro area. According to standard models, after a large recessionary shock accommodative monetary and fiscal policy together may be necessary to stabilize economic activity and inflation. The paper describes practical ways for the euro area to be able to implement an effective monetary-fiscal policy mix.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
Network
Discussion papers
31 January 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2007
Details
Abstract
Dynamic rational inattention problems used to be difficult to solve. This paper provides simple, analytical results for dynamic rational inattention problems. We start from the benchmark rational inattention problem. An agent tracks a variable of interest that follows a Gaussian process. The agent chooses how to pay attention to this variable. The agent aims to minimize, say, the mean squared error subject to a constraint on information flow, as in Sims (2003). We prove that if the variable of interest follows an ARMA(p,q) process, the optimal signal is about a linear combination of {Xt,…,Xt-p+1} and {εt,…, εt-q+1}, where Xt denotes the variable of interest and εt denotes its period t innovation. The optimal signal weights can be computed from a simple extension of the Kalman filter: the usual Kalman filter equations in combination with first-order conditions for the optimal signal weights. We provide several analytical results regarding those signal weights. We also prove the equivalence of several different formulations of the information flow constraint. We conclude with general equilibrium applications from Macroeconomics.
JEL Code
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
9 June 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2072
Details
Abstract
When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, output, inflation, and government bond default premia are indeterminate according to a standard general equilibrium model with sticky prices extended to include defaultable public debt. With sunspots, the model mimics the recent euro area data. We specify an alternative configuration of monetary and fiscal policy, with a non-defaultable eurobond. If this policy arrangement had been in place since the onset of the Great Recession, output could have been much higher than in the data with inflation in line with the ECB’s objective.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
29 June 2017
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 36
Details
Abstract
When monetary and fiscal policy are conducted as in the euro area, self-fulfilling expectations of economic agents can lead to undesirable fluctuations in output, inflation and government bond spreads. An alternative policy arrangement would enable more effective macroeconomic stabilisation.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
21 June 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2570
Details
Abstract
We review the recent literature on rational inattention, identify the main theoretical mechanisms, and explain how it helps us understand a variety of phenomena across fields of economics. The theory of rational inattention assumes that agents cannot process all available information, but they can choose which exact pieces of information to attend to. Several important results in economics have been built around imperfect information. Nowadays, many more forms of information than ever before are available due to new technologies, and yet we are able to digest little of it. Which form of imperfect information we possess and act upon is thus largely determined by which information we choose to pay attention to. These choices are driven by current economic conditions and imply behavior that features numerous empirically supported departures from standard models. Combining these insights about human limitations with the optimizing approach of neoclassical economics yields a new, generally applicable model.
JEL Code
D8 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
2019
European Journal of Political Economy
Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s Monetary Union
  • Corsetti, G., Dedola, L., Jarociński, M., Maćkowiak, B., Schmidt S.
2018
Journal of Economic Theory
Dynamic rational inattention: Analytical results
  • Maćkowiak, B., Matejka, F. and Wiederholt M.
2018
Journal of International Economics
Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise
  • Jarociński, M. and Maćkowiak, B.
2018
Journal of Monetary Economics
Lack of preparation for rare events
  • Maćkowiak, B. and Wiederholt, M.
2017
Review of Economics and Statistics
Granger causal priority and choice of variables in vector autoregressions
  • Jarociński, M. and Maćkowiak, B.
2015
Review of Economic Studies
Business cycle dynamics under rational inattention
  • Maćkowiak, B. and Wiederholt, M.
2012
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
Information processing and limited liability
  • Maćkowiak, B. and Wiederholt, M.
2009
Journal of Monetary Economics
Sectoral price data and models of price setting
  • Maćkowiak, B., Moench, E. and Wiederholt, M.
2009
American Economic Review
Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention
  • Maćkowiak, B. and Wiederholt, M.
2007
Journal of Monetary Economics
External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets
  • Maćkowiak, B.
2007
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Macroeconomic regime switches and speculative attacks
  • Maćkowiak, B.
2006
Comparative Economic Studies
How much of the macroeconomic variation in Eastern Europe is attributable to external shocks?
  • Maćkowiak, B.
2006
Journal of International Economics
What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?
  • Maćkowiak, B.
2006
European Economic Review
Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises
  • Corsetti, G. and Maćkowiak, B.