Christofer Schroeder
Economics
- Division
Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance
- Current Position
-
Graduate Programme Participant
- Fields of interest
-
Labour Economics,Financial Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- Education
- 2021
PhD Economics, Stockholm School of Economics
- 2014
MSc Economics, Humboldt University Berlin
- 2012
BA Economics, University of Calgary
- 20 March 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box explores the use of corporate earnings calls as a novel, high-frequency source of data for nowcasting and forecasting labour demand in the euro area. Labour demand has started to show signs of cooling following its post-pandemic peak. By applying textual analysis to transcripts of earnings calls, we construct an indicator that correlates strongly with the euro area job vacancy rate. This metric enables us to produce timely forecasts ahead of official data releases. Utilising a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression approach, we use this indicator to forecast the job vacancy rate. We also produce forecasts based on Indeed online job posting data. Our findings indicate a sustained moderation in labour demand, suggesting that the job vacancy rate will hover at around 2.5% through mid-2025. This method makes assessments of labour demand both more timely and more accurate.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 6 January 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024Details
- Abstract
- In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the euro area labour market showed remarkable resilience despite weak economic growth and various challenges, including supply chain disruptions, the energy crisis and geopolitical tensions. The relative strength of the labour market compared with economic activity led to a marked decline in measures of labour productivity. Factors such as reduced real wages, increased profit margins, lower average hours worked and strong labour force growth contributed to favourable labour market dynamics, encouraging firms to hire or retain workers. Looking ahead, there are signs of easing in the labour market as some of the factors sustaining employment subside, aligning labour market dynamics more closely with economic activity. Nevertheless, structural issues, such as declining average hours worked and labour force dynamics, may persist.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J2 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor
- 14 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3001Details
- Abstract
- Contractions in credit supply can lead firms to reduce their level of employment, yet little is known about how these shocks affect the composition of firms’ employees and outcomes at the worker level. This paper investigates how bank distress affects credit provision and its effects on employment beyond firm-level aggregates. To do so, we use a novel dataset built from administrative and tax records linking all banks, firms, and workers in Denmark. We show that banks that were particularly exposed to the 2008-09 financial crisis cut lending to firms, and firms were unable to fully compensate with financing from alternate sources. The decrease in credit supply led to a drop in firm-level employment, with effects concentrated among firms with low pre-crisis liquidity, and on employment of low-educated and nonmanagerial workers. At the worker level, we find that positive effects on unemployment were driven by effects on low-educated, non-managerial and short-tenured workers. Our estimates suggest that cuts in bank lending can account for at least 5% of the fall in employment of low-educated workers in our sample, and are an important factor behind heterogeneous employment dynamics in times of contractionary credit.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
- 25 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings from an ECB survey in which leading firms were asked about key labour market trends. The responses suggest that recruiting new employees has become more difficult in recent years, owing particularly to labour shortages, and that this is the main motivation for firms to hoard labour during downturns. Reduced working hours are said to reflect the preferences of employees more than of firms. The increase in remote working has helped to expand the potential pool of job candidates and reduced the cost of office space but is also perceived by some firms to have reduced productivity. The survey also asked about the adoption of generative artificial intelligence (generative AI). Responses point to a significant take-up of generative AI over the past 18 months, motivated in particular by the wish to increase employee access to information.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 8 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2973Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed light on how domestic factors shape external monetary policy spillover effects using indicators on the macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy stances of EMEs. We find that a surprise tightening of monetary policy in the US leads to an immediate tightening of financial conditions which leads to a decline in activity and prices in EMEs over one year. Importantly, these effects are amplified in periods of high vulnerabilities and attenuated when EMEs follow a prudent monetary policy stance. Our findings help explain the greater resilience of many EMEs to the Fed’s post-COVID-19 tightening cycle, and highlight the benefits of the broad improvements of monetary policy frameworks in these countries.
- JEL Code
- F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 3 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2862Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the impact of national carbon taxes on CO2 emissions. To do so, we run local projections on a cross-country panel dataset, matching measures of emissions of carbon dioxide with information on the introduction of carbon taxes and their implied price. Importantly, we consider both measures of territorial emissions — emissions emitted within a country’s borders — and consumption emissions — emissions emitted anywhere in the world to satisfy domestic demand. We find that carbon taxes reduce territorial emissions over time, but have no significant effect on consumption emissions. Our estimates are robust to propensity-score weighting adjustments and are driven by countries which are more open to trade. Carbon taxes also lead to a modest increase in imports, suggesting that international trade may imply a negative carbon externality. Together, our findings highlight the limitations of national carbon taxes in isolation and the importance of international cooperation in reducing global emissions.
- JEL Code
- F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
F64 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Environment
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 30 March 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies