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Marcel Tirpák

International & European Relations

Division

External Developments

Current Position

Lead Economist

Fields of interest

International Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics

Email

marcel.tirpak@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2001-2006

PhD in Finance, University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia

2004-2005

Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany

1996-2001

MSc in Economics, University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia

Professional experience
2020-

Lead Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2020-2020

Principal Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2016-2019

Senior Economist - External Developments Division, Directorate General International & European Relations, European Central Bank

2008-2016

Economist - EU Countries Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank

2006-2008

Economist - Regional Office for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, International Monetary Fund

2005-2006

Economist and Adviser to Deputy Governor - Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia

25 November 2015
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1869
Details
Abstract
Using event-study techniques we investigate the presence and the magnitude of spillovers from the ECB
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 May 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2060
Details
Abstract
We show that traditional gravity variables play a significant role in explaining trade flows related to global value chain participation We find evidence that cooperation costs – measured by linguistic and geographical proximity – are more relevant for trade that reflects cross-border production sharing. Applying an augmented gravity model framework to a newly-constructed dataset we find a positive association between bilateral FDI stock and both gross bilateral trade and the bilateral import-content of exports. We confirm this finding using an empirical case study on central and eastern European countries, which from a global perspective stand out both in terms of degree of global value chain-participation and size of inward FDI stock. Overall, we show that foreign investors play an active role in shaping host economies' export structure and their participation in international production networks. Policies that attract foreign direct investment would therefore constitute an indirect way to deepen a GVC-participation.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
L22 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Organization and Market Structure
29 November 2017
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 2, 2017
Details
Abstract
This special feature examines the potential drivers of the post-crisis retrenchment in cross-border banking in the euro area, which stands out in international comparison. Examining a wide range of possible determinants of this phenomenon, it establishes a significant link between deteriorating asset quality and the retrenchment in cross-border banking. Conversely, tighter prudential policies and the introduction of bank levies do not contribute to explaining the reduction in cross-border banking activity. Therefore, tackling the persistent asset quality problems, along with the completion of the banking union, would seem to be pivotal to reaping the potential benefits of cross-border banking within the euro area in terms of risk diversification and risk-sharing.
JEL Code
G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
26 February 2018
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2130
Details
Abstract
This paper examines the drivers of the retrenchment in cross-border banking in the European Union (EU) since the global financial crisis, which stands out in international comparison as banks located in the euro area and in the rest of the EU reduced their cross-border claims by around 25%. Particularly striking is the sharp and sustained reduction in intra-EU claims, especially in the form of deleveraging from cross-border interbank loans. Examining a wide range of possible determinants, we identify high non-performing loans as an important impediment to cross-border lending after the crisis, highlighting the spillovers from national banking sector conditions across the EU. We also find evidence that prudential policies can entail spillovers via cross-border banking in the EU, albeit with heterogeneity across instruments in terms of direction, magnitude and significance. Our results do not point to a major role of newly introduced bank levies in explaining cross-border banking developments.
JEL Code
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
25 April 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019
Details
Abstract
This box reviews basic characteristics of the Asian tech sector and shows that it has played an important role in the recent weakness in China’s trade. It also suggests that the trend in the global tech cycle associated with weaker trade in Asia may be bottoming out.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
4 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box studies the relative impact on inflation of pandemic-induced demand and supply constraints for key advanced economies outside the euro area by using granular data on consumption expenditures and prices and a structural Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) framework. It finds that during the initial phase of the pandemic, consumer price inflation was driven more by demand-sensitive components and less by supply-sensitive ones. The structural analysis confirms a dominant role for demand shocks in the pandemic. It concludes that the impact of pandemic-related supply constraints on inflation appears limited to date. Yet, more granular analysis is needed to assess the consequences of the pandemic for the drivers of inflation.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
2019
Review of World Economics
  • Emter, L., Schmitz, M. and Tirpák, M.
2017
Comparative Economic Studies
  • Buelens, C. and Tirpák, M.
2009
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance
  • Rosenberg, C. and Tirpák, M.