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Milan Damjanović

29 June 2020
This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and makes a first step in adapting the central bank modelling apparatus to the new economic landscape. We augment the ECB-BASE model with the predictive dynamics of the SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy. Containment policies considerably reduce the share of infected and deceased people, but generate a sharp decline in economic activity. Barring the materialization of amplification risks, the induced recession may remain broadly V-shaped under targeted confinement policies. By comparison, a "laissez-faire" approach to the pandemic emergency can even inflict in some cases higher long-term economic costs. Nevertheless, the depth of the recession and the speed of the recovery (if at all) crucially depend on the magnitude and persistence of the supply-side retrenchment, as well as on the risk of macro-financial feedback loops.
JEL Code
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
I1 : Health, Education, and Welfare→Health
14 October 2020
This paper summarises the economic analyses of the potential impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, European Union (EU) and euro area performed by members of and contributors to the Brexit Task Force, a group reporting to the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. The studies were carried out between 2017 and the initial months of 2019 and have been independently published by the authors. The aim of this Occasional Paper is to present the studies in an organic manner, highlighting common features and results.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F22 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Migration