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Eduardo Gonçalves

Economics

Division

Prices & Costs

Current Position

Research Analyst

Fields of interest

Microeconomics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Public Economics

Email

Eduardo.Goncalves@ecb.europa.eu

5 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
The recent marked increases in the cost of commodities, raw materials and intermediate products have so far led to only limited upward pressures on consumer goods inflation. Looking ahead, upward pressures on non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) inflation from recent global developments in these input costs are expected to strengthen, as the pass-through generally takes more than one year. How visible and strong the impact on NEIG inflation might be will depend on how persistent the global input cost shocks ultimately are.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
3 August 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021
Details
Abstract
The recovery of growth in compensation per employee (CPE) has been V-shaped and driven mainly by adjustments in compensation and less by changes in employment. This can be explained by the decisive role played by job retention schemes during the pandemic, which helped to preserve the employment status of employees. The dispersion of CPE growth has remained higher than during pre-pandemic times – underlining the importance of taking sectoral developments into account when analysing aggregate wage growth in the euro area. The differences in sectoral developments in CPE growth reflect the different degrees to which sectors were affected by the pandemic and the measures taken to contain it. While wage growth has been strong in non-market services and construction in recent quarters, CPE growth was hardest hit and remains negative in high-contact services. The effects of the pandemic on growth in compensation are expected to shape wage developments in 2021 in all main sectors. As for the outlook, a key question is whether sectoral wage negotiations will aim to make up for the temporary cuts in compensation at least partly and in some sectors – which could add to wage growth over the next years, especially in those parts of the services sector that were hit hardest during the pandemic.
JEL Code
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
25 March 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2021
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic triggered significant changes in household spending in 2020. These shifts are reflected in the 2021 HICP weights, and consequently, also in measured annual inflation. The impact of these new HICP weights on annual inflation is not insignificant and is also heterogenous across countries. Looking ahead, the full impact will most likely only materialise over the course of the year as the relative prices gradually change.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
1 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
The response to the COVID-19 outbreak with lockdowns implies both a shutdown of some markets and a severe economic downturn. Price developments have been influenced in a complex manner by different demand and supply factors, which limits the applicability of past empirical regularities in the interpretation of recent aggregate inflation developments. This article looks at this complexity and applies a component-by-component approach to analysing HICP inflation that takes into account the circumstances prevailing in individual markets. The article analyses how sub-components of euro area inflation have behaved since the onset of the pandemic. It then elaborates on the relative importance of demand and supply factors driving the disaggregated price developments and the implications for headline inflation. The article concludes with the lessons that can be learnt from this bottom-up analysis, an approach that is particularly suited to current circumstances.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
10 November 2020
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has triggered large shifts in household consumption as well as issues related to price collection. We construct a monthly-reweighted consumer price index for the euro area which is able to capture part of the changes in household consumption since the beginning of the pandemic. In this way, we quantify the gap between published HICP inflation and the inflation rate of the items actually purchased by final consumers. Furthermore, we discuss the issue of price imputation and its impact on published statistics.
JEL Code
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates