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Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez

29 February 2004
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 10
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Abstract
This paper reviews the strategies announced by the ten countries joining the European Union in May 2004 with regard to their intentions for participation in ERM II and the adoption of the euro. The paper examines the economic rationale of the monetary integration strategies declared by most acceding countries with a view to identifying also their potential risks. It does so by making use of several different approaches, including a short review of nominal convergence and a more extensive discussion from an optimum currency area perspective. An important part of the analysis is devoted to the implications of real convergence – i.e. catching-up growth in income and adjustment of the real economic structures towards those prevailing in the euro area – on the patterns of economic dynamics in acceding countries. Other aspects covered are the risks for external competitiveness in the convergence process and the appropriate pace of fiscal consolidation.
1 April 2005
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 27
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Abstract
This paper reviews current discussions on reforming the European Union (EU) budgetary procedure and assesses the main reform proposals that have been suggested thus far. It argues that prospects for reforms are presently hampered by the complex interplay between supranational and intergovernmental decision modes and the requirement of any budgetary procedure to strike a balance between efficiency and legitimacy. The paper reviews the main criticisms of the present budgetary procedure and the related reform proposals, which are assessed on the basis of relevant theoretical literature as well as brief comparisons with the federal budget of the United States. The paper argues that the current EU budgetary procedure maximises efficiency and legitimacy, given the present state of political integration in the EU. Significant modifications to the budgetary procedure would depart from that equilibrium.
JEL Code
D78 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
H77 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→Intergovernmental Relations, Federalism, Secession
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
4 July 2006
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 48
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Abstract
This paper - based on a report by a Task Force established by the International Relations Committee (IRC) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) - reviews macroeconomic and financial stability challenges for acceding (Bulgaria and Romania) and candidate countries (Croatia and Turkey). In an environment characterised by strong growth and capital inflows, the main macroeconomic challenges relate to the recent pick-up of inflation and the large and widening current account deficits. Moreover, rapid credit growth has been a recent feature of financial development in all countries and thus constitutes the main financial stability challenge. In general, monetary authorities have responded to these challenges by tightening monetary conditions and prudential standards, with concrete measures also reflecting the different monetary and exchange rate regimes in the region. The paper also highlights four specific features of fiancial development in the countries under review, namely the dominance of banks in financial intermediation, the strong participation of foreign-owned banks, the widespread use of foreign currencies and the strengthening of supervisory frameworks.
JEL Code
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
P27 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→Performance and Prospects
23 May 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 748
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Abstract
This paper develops a model to explain the determinants of financial dollarization. Expanding on the existing literature, our framework allows interest rate differentials to play a role in explaining financial dollarization. It also accounts for the increasing presence of foreign banks in the local financial sector. Using a newly compiled data set on transition economies we find that increasing access to foreign funds leads to higher credit dollarization, while it decreases deposit dollarization. Interest rate differentials matter for the dollarization of both loans and deposits. Overall, the empirical results lend support to the predictions of our theoretical model.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages