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Julian von Landesberger

21 September 2021
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 278
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Abstract
This paper summarises the work done by Eurosystem staff in the context of the Strategy Review Seminar on Monetary Policy Instruments. More specifically, it focuses on the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the key monetary policy instruments employed by the European Central Bank since 2014. The following main findings emerge from the analysis. First, instruments have been effective in easing financing conditions and supporting economic growth, employment and inflation. Second, considering the effective lower bound on policy rates, a combination of instruments is generally more efficient than relying on a single tool. Third, side effects have been generally contained so far, but they are found to vary over time and need to be closely monitored on an ongoing basis. Fourth, the monetary policy toolkit needs to remain innovative, diversified, and flexible, i.e. reviewed regularly to ensure that it remains fit for purpose against the backdrop of evolving financial and macroeconomic conditions.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
17 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2552
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Abstract
This paper investigates whether the funding behaviour of euro area debt management offices (DMOs) changed with the start of the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP). Our results show that (i) lower yield levels and (ii) PSPP purchases supported higher maturities at issuance. The former indicates a behaviour of “locking in low rates for longer”, while the latter suggests the existence of an additional “demand effect” of the PSPP on DMO strategies beyond the PSPP’s effect via yields. The combined impact of the PSPP via these channels amounts to maturity extensions at issuance of about one year in our estimation, which compares to the average issuance maturity for Germany, France, Italy and Spain before the PSPP of four years. Our finding that DMOs extend maturities when funding conditions ease invites further work on the economic implications of public debt management during the PSPP and its relevance for monetary policy transmission.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
18 March 2019
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2019
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Abstract
Following the Governing Council’s decision in December 2018 to end net asset purchases under the Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme (APP), this article reviews the implementation and effects of the asset purchases. The APP has proved to be an adaptable and effective instrument to ease monetary and financial conditions, foster economic recovery, counteract disinflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations, thereby supporting a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation towards price stability. The APP has been part of a package of policy measures together with negative interest rates on the deposit facility, forward guidance and targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs), jointly creating synergies that have enhanced the effectiveness of each of the package’s individual components. From an implementation viewpoint, the Eurosystem ensured that asset purchases were conducted smoothly and flexibly by striving for market neutrality and mitigating unintended side effects for market functioning. Whereas net asset purchases have come to an end, principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP will continue to be reinvested as this, together with enhanced forward guidance, provides the monetary accommodation that the Governing Council judges to be required for the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
19 March 2018
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2018
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Abstract
The liquidity of euro area sovereign bond markets is important for the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy. In particular, a high degree of liquidity fosters the link between the ECB’s monetary policy decisions, the yield curve, financial asset prices in general, and the overall cost and flow of finance in the economy. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets needs to be monitored more closely since the implementation of the ECB’s public sector purchase programme (PSPP), under which a significant share of outstanding euro area sovereign bonds has been bought. Against this background, this box presents some of the market liquidity indicators that the ECB monitors regularly. Overall, the indicators suggest that liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets have not deteriorated since the start of the PSPP (on 9 March 2015).
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
20 October 2010
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1257
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Abstract
This paper analyses euro area non-financial corporations (NFC) money demand, both from a macro and a microeconomic point of view. At a macro level, money holdings are modelled as a function of real gross added value, the price level, the long-term interest rate on bank lending to non-financial corporations, the own rate of return on M3 and the real capital stock of the NFC sector. The results indicate that NFCs’ money holdings adjust quickly when deviations from their long-run level are registered, and that the large increase observed recently in NFCs’ money holdings has been driven by changes in their fundamentals and hence they stand in line with their long-run equilibrium level. The disaggregated analysis also shows that cash holdings are linked to balance-sheet ratios (such as non-liquid short term assets, tangible assets or indebtedness) and other variables such as the firm’ cash flow, its volatility or the size of the firm, which cannot be taken into account in the macro analysis. Likewise, results indicate that the main drivers of the increase in NFC cash holdings in the last years have been cyclical factors, captured by gross-added value and the cash-flow respectively. Variations in the opportunity cost of holding money, have also contributed to explain M3 developments but more modestly than at the end of the nineties, when its increase contributed negatively to cash accumulation.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D21 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Theory
15 September 2010
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1238
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Abstract
In this paper we analyse household holdings of the broad monetary aggregate M3 in the euro area from 1991 until 2009. We develop four models, two in nominal, two in real terms, with satisfactory economic and statistical properties. The main determinants are a transactions variable, wealth considerations, opportunity costs and uncertainty. The models are robust to different estimation strategies, samples considered and a multitude of mis-specification tests. The exercise also provides insights that go beyond the portfolio allocation decision of households. According to our analysis, it is quite apparent that in equilibrium, households jointly determine consumption and broad money holdings both influenced by wealth as well as interest rates.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
D21 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Theory
23 October 2007
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 75
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Abstract
Monetary growth has increased significantly in the euro area in recent years, raising concerns about the risks to price stability. Viewed from a sectoral perspective, this increase reflects to a large extent the deposit holdings of other financial intermediaries (OFIs). This paper presents analytical work on the role of OFIs in monetary and credit developments in the euro area. Although, at the moment, some shortcomings in the data available - such as the lack of long time series data - seriously limit the analysis of the role of OFIs in monetary and credit aggregates, it seems clear that OFIs have gained considerable importance in recent years, not only as a factor affecting monetary developments, but also for the functioning of the financial system. This gain in importance may be due to financial deregulation and liberalisation, as well as financial innovation. These developments are reflected in the integration and deepening of euro area financial markets, as well as in investors' attitude to risk.
30 March 2007
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 741
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Abstract
Empirical money demand analysis undertaken at the aggregate level may obscure behavioural differences between the financial, non-financial corporation and household sectors. Looking at the individual and more homogenous sectors may allow more clearly interpretable empirical relationships between money holding, scale variables and opportunity costs to be estimated. Two possible approaches can be taken to address this issue: aggregate and sectoral money holdings are explained either by a common set of determinant variables or by specific determinants, which may differ across sectors. In this analysis, the first approach has been chosen in order to highlight the different elasticities of the long-run money demand with respect to a common set of macroeconomic determinants and thereby to allow comparison of the model for the aggregate M3 with corresponding models for households, non-financial corporations and non-monetary financial intermediaries. This paper presents results for cointegrated VAR systems estimated over a sample of quarterly data from 1991 to 2005. A SUR system is estimated to cross-check the robustness of the findings and to analyse the importance of common shocks across sectors.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other