PUHE
29.9.2023
Energiavalintojen rahoittaminen
EKP voi tehdä investoimisesta ympäristöystävällisiin ratkaisuihin helpompaa ja vaikuttaa siten energiakustannusten kehitykseen. Kun hintataso pysyy vakaana, yritysten sijoitukset säilyttävät arvonsa.
Puhe
HAASTATTELU
27.9.2023
Ilmastonmuutoksen hintaan voidaan vaikuttaa
Ympäristöä opitaan vähitellen suojelemaan ja uusiutuvan energian käyttöä lisätään, mutta tilanteen olisi parannuttava nopeammin, jotta ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttamat kustannukset jäisivät pienemmiksi. Hinta on kova jo näinkin, mutta viivyttely vain pahentaa tilannetta.
Haastattelu
VISAILUJA
2.10.2023
Mitä tiedät rahapolitiikasta?
EKP:n rahapoliittisilla toimilla on keskeinen vaikutus talouteen. Mutta kuka päätökset tekee? Miten ne toteutetaan? Ja miten päätösten vaikutukset näkyvät päivittäisessä elämässämme? Testaa tietosi uudessa Kahoot!-tietovisassa.
Aloita tästä- 29 September 2023
- OTHER GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 27 September 2023
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 27 September 2023
- MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 27 September 2023
- ANNEX
- 26 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 26 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 19 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 19 September 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 29 September 2023
- Opening remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the joint IEA-ECB-EIB High-Level International Conference on “Ensuring an orderly energy transition: Europe’s competitiveness and financial stability in a period of global energy transformation”
- 26 September 2023
- Welcome address (presentation slides) at the joint European Central Bank - Banque de France - Centre for Economic Policy Research conference "Monetary Policy Challenges for European Macroeconomies" in Paris
- 25 September 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 25 September 2023
- 25 September 2023
- Thünen Lecture by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the annual conference of the Verein für Socialpolitik
- 22 September 2023
- Dinner speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money Marketeers of New York University
- 2 October 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold
- 27 September 2023
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Luke Heighton on 22 September 2023
- 22 September 2023
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jennifer Schonberger
- 5 September 2023
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Stephen Kinsella on 31 August 2023
- 30 July 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Anne Cheyvialle and Florentin Collomp on 28 July 2023
- 28 September 2023
- From playing chess to piloting drones – machines have become much smarter and play a role in many areas of our lives. So why not use artificial intelligence for central banking? We are currently using this new technology for some tasks and exploring its future use for others. The ECB Blog gives you an overview.Details
- JEL Code
- O32 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 6 September 2023
- Moving towards carbon neutrality as quickly and boldly as possible is by far the best way to slow down climate change. It may take more effort in the short run, but in the long run it will cost less overall, says ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos. We need to reach carbon neutrality to avoid existential risks to nature, people and our economies. And we need to start making changes soon. Procrastinating may be easier and less costly today, but means we will pay a higher price tomorrow: the damage to our environment and economies from rising temperatures will be much more severe. In fact, the sooner and faster we complete the necessary green transition, the lower the overall costs and risks. This is one of the main outcomes of our second economy-wide climate stress test. Let me talk you through the findings.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 30 August 2023
- With rising geopolitical tensions and urgent global challenges such as the climate and digital transitions, Europe needs to bolster its resilience to shocks and invest strategically. In order to achieve this, we need to work together, as a more integrated Europe is better positioned to realize shared goals in a fragmented global economy.Details
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 24 August 2023
- Our money needs to be easy to handle, appealing and difficult to counterfeit. This ECB Blog post talks you through good banknote design – and seeks your advice.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
- 9 August 2023
- Words matter as much as actions for central banks. Because changes in tone can presage shifts in monetary policy. We have created an index to measure and compare the tone of policy communication by the ECB and the US Fed. This ECB Blog post talks you through the findings.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D53 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Financial Markets
- 2 October 2023
- LEGAL ACT
- 2 October 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2848Details
- Abstract
- We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework jointly estimated on disaggregated sub-components of the euro area HICP and has several additional advantages. First, it is able to swiftly infer abrupt changes in underlying inflation. Second, it helps to timely track turning points in underlying inflation. Third, the proposed indicator also has a satisfactory performance with respect to various criteria relevant for inflation monitoring.
- JEL Code
- E17 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C24 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
- 29 September 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2847Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the design of Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a Health New Keynesian (HeNK) model with Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) agents. The nonlinear model is estimated with maximum likelihood techniques on Euro Area data. Our objective is to deconstruct the mechanism by which contagion risk affects the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is the only game in town, we find that the optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability to mitigate the effect of the pandemic. The best outcome is obtained when the optimal Ramsey policy is combined with a lockdown strategy of medium intensity. In this case, monetary policy can concentrate on its price stabilization objective.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 29 September 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at the impact of financial sector support measures on euro area public finances 15 years after the great financial crisis that led to widespread government assistance for the financial sector.
- JEL Code
- H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box describes liquidity conditions and the Eurosystem’s monetary policy operations during the third and fourth maintenance periods of 2023, from 10 May to 1 August 2023.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation can be an important determinant of their economic behaviour and inflation expectations. In this context, in June 2023 the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey asked consumers what they believed was the main factor driving changes in the general level of prices for goods and services in their country over the past 12 months. Most consumers believe that price changes over the past 12 months were mainly driven by input cost factors, with corporate profits ranked second and wages third. Consumers responding that other input costs are the main driver expect inflation to be less persistent. Consumer perceptions of the factors driving inflation should continue to be monitored. As the various drivers can influence inflation persistence differently, profits or wages being perceived as more prominent drivers in the future could have implications for consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations.
- JEL Code
- D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the recent dispersion of economic activity across countries and sectors and assesses the role that reopening effects have played following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions last year. The box shows that the dispersion of growth across euro area countries was still relatively high at the beginning of 2023, while the dispersion of growth across sectors was in line with pre-pandemic levels. The greater dispersion of growth across countries appears to be related to the continued higher dispersion of growth in contact-intensive services, which declined from the peak seen during the pandemic but remained at a historically high level, as contact-intensive services output continued to grow at a stronger pace in countries where contact-intensive services account for a larger share of the economy. According to an econometric model for the euro area as a whole, reopening effects remained a significant driver of the growth differential between manufacturing and contact-intensive services in the first quarter of 2023 but weakened overall compared with 2022. Over the course of 2023 the effects of the reopening of the economy should continue to fade and other forces, such as tighter financing conditions, should become more prominent.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- After three years of below-average ocean surface temperatures, the arrival of El Niño this year implies risks to global food prices. El Niño is the warm phase of the temperature cycle in the East-Central tropical Pacific, when ocean surface temperatures exceed normal temperatures by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius. The effects of El Niño on climate patterns are complex, although the phenomenon is likely to put upward pressure on global food commodity prices due to higher risks of extreme weather events, which have already been taking place more frequently in recent years. The magnitude of the effect on global food commodity prices depends on the strength of the El Niño phenomenon. In turn, if current conditions develop into a strong El Niño, it could cause global food commodity prices to increase by up to 9%, with the strongest effects expected for soybeans, corn and rice. Accordingly, financial markets appeared to factor in future price increases for grains as well as higher uncertainty about future grain prices immediately after it was announced that El Niño conditions had arrived.
- JEL Code
- Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
Q17 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Agriculture→Agriculture in International Trade
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives markets (SESFOD) is a qualitative survey which collects information on the credit terms and conditions offered by large banks active in the targeted euro-denominated markets. On the tenth anniversary of the launch of SESFOD in 2013, this article assesses the information value of the survey and its leading indicator properties. It analyses the underlying individual responses over time and the drivers of aggregate developments. While changes are infrequent, they may have highly significant effects on financial stability, market functioning and monetary policy. More specifically, information on changes in the cost and availability of funding in wholesale markets, and in repo markets in particular, may support the analysis of monetary policy transmission and interbank funding conditions.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
- 28 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- In 2022, the euro area current account balance recorded a deficit of 0.8% of euro area GDP compared with a surplus of 2.8% of GDP in 2021. This deterioration of 3.6 percentage points is the biggest annual change in the euro area current account balance on record. This article reviews developments in the current account components. It shows that most of this deterioration is expected to be temporary as it was driven by a decline in the goods trade balance on the back of sharp increases in energy import prices. The euro area current account can therefore be expected to recover, driven by a partial rebound in the terms of trade, anticipated fiscal consolidation and largely unchanged demographic factors. However, as part of the increase in energy prices will probably persist over the medium term, the euro area current account balance is likely to stay somewhat below pre-pandemic levels.
- JEL Code
- F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 28 September 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2846Details
- Abstract
- Leaks of confidential information emanating from public institutions have been the focus of a long-standing line of research. Yet, their determinants as well as their potential impact on public views and on policy effectiveness remain elusive. To address this gap, we study leaks from central banks because their effects are instantaneously reflected in financial markets. Based on a novel database of anonymous monetary policy leaks in the euro area as reported by newswires, we provide evidence that many of these leaks are likely placed by individual insiders with minority opinions. While we find that leaks have large effects on markets and weaken official policy announcements, our results also suggest that leaks do not lock in decision-makers, and that attributed communication can mitigate some of their effects.
- JEL Code
- D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
H83 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Public Administration, Public Sector Accounting and Audits
- 28 September 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2845Details
- Abstract
- We study the implications of climate change and the associated mitigation measures for optimal monetary policy in a canonical New Keynesian model with climate externalities. Provided they are set at their socially optimal level, carbon taxes pose no trade-offs for monetary policy: it is both feasible and optimal to fully stabilize inflation and the welfare-relevant output gap. More realistically, if carbon taxes are initially suboptimal, trade-offs arise between core and climate goals. These trade-offs however are resolved overwhelmingly in favor of price stability, even in scenarios of decades-long transition to optimal carbon taxation. This reflects the untargeted, inefficient nature of (conventional) monetary policy as a climate instrument. In a model extension with financial frictions and central bank purchases of corporate bonds, we show that green tilting of purchases is optimal and accelerates the green transition. However, its effect on CO2 emissions and global temperatures is limited by the small size of eligible bonds’ spreads.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 27 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- In a pilot round of the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), conducted between 25 May and 26 June 2023, euro area firms were asked about climate change. Firms attach substantial importance to the potential negative impact from the physical risks of climate change. However, they are even more concerned about transition risks. Compared with physical risks, stricter climate standards provide a stronger incentive for firms to invest in climate change mitigation. Nonetheless, high financing costs and insufficient public subsidies are important obstacles to green investment. The results of the survey highlight the important role played by public loan guarantees and private sector funds in directing resources towards the greening of the economy.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 27 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article considers how climate change will affect potential output – the highest level of production that an economy can sustain over the long run without driving up inflation. Higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are likely to negatively affect certain sectors, notably agriculture and tourism, and impair workers’ productivity. The green transition involves the reallocation of capital and labour across businesses and sectors. In the long run, the impact on potential output depends on the success of that reallocation and on the rate of progress of green innovation.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 26 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Banks distribute capital to equity investors either by paying dividends or by buying back shares. Such distributions of capital have ambiguous implications for monetary policy, since these lower banks’ cost of equity by signalling their soundness to investors but also reduce banks’ capital ratios and thus potentially their intermediation capacity. Since the end of the pandemic and the end of ECB Banking Supervision’s recommendation to refrain from or limit payouts, banks in the euro area have distributed capital at a rapid pace. Such distributions have been spearheaded by ambitious buyback programmes, catching up on forgone distributions in previous years, while a further increase in dividends is also likely. Payouts vary greatly across banks in terms of both overall size and composition. Individual banks tend to distribute more capital when they are more profitable and have better asset quality, capital ratios above their announced targets and more liquidity. They also tend to spread distributions over several years. We find that recent payouts have had a positive signalling effect on financial markets. Higher payout commitments have also been associated with lower bank credit supply and higher lending rates, therefore possibly contributing to the transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy tightening impulse so far.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
- 26 September 2023
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 September 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2844Details
- Abstract
- We study a model in which policy aims at aggregate price stability. A fiscal imbalance materializes that, if uncorrected, must cause inflation, but the imbalance may get corrected in the future with some probability. By maintaining price stability in the near term, monetary policy can buy time for a correction to take place. The policy gamble may succeed, preserving price and fiscal stability, or fail, leading to a delayed, possibly large jump in the price level. The resulting dynamics resemble the models of a currency crisis following Krugman (1979) and Obstfeld (1986). Like in Obstfeld’s work, multiple equilibria arise naturally: whether or not price stability is preserved may depend on private agents’ expectations. The model can be reinterpreted as a model of partial default on public debt, in which case it is reminiscent of Calvo (1988).
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 25 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The strong rebound in the labour force is a notable development in the euro area labour market and supported the resilient employment growth in recent quarters. In particular, over the last year and a half the main source of employment growth has been the strong inflow of people joining the labour force rather than a fall in the number of unemployed. This box provides an overview of recent euro area labour force developments, using data from Eurostat and the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey. It also analyses the drivers of the euro area labour force using a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR to disentangle the push and pull factors behind the labour force dynamics.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
Korot
| Maksuvalmiusluoton korko | 4,75 % |
| Perusrahoitusoperaatioiden korko (kiinteä) | 4,50 % |
| Talletuskorko | 4,00 % |
Inflaatiovauhti
InflaatiokehitysValuuttakurssit
| USD | US dollar | 1.0530 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 157.67 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86628 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9634 |
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