PUHE
7.11.2024
EKP:n tase on pienentynyt
Euroalueella on edelleen runsaasti ylimääräistä likviditeettiä, sanoo johtokunnan jäsen Isabel Schnabel. Supistuva tase on parantanut markkinoiden toimivuutta. Se on parantanut vakuuksien saatavuutta, vahvistanut markkinatoimintaa ja edistänyt varantojen uusjakoa.
Lue puhe
PUHE
6.11.2024
Matkalla kohti hintavakautta
Pyrimme määrätietoisesti palauttamaan keskipitkän aikavälin inflaatiovauhdin kohtuullisessa ajassa takaisin 2 prosenttiin. Ohjauskorot pysyvät rajoittavina niin kauan kuin on tarpeen, sanoo Luis de Guindos. Tuoreiden tietojen mukaan inflaatio hidastuu hyvää vauhtia, hän lisää.
Lue puhe
JULKAISUT
7.11.2024
Yritysten rahoitusehdot kiristyneet hieman
Aiempaa harvempi euroalueen yritys ilmoitti pankkilainojensa korkojen nousseen vuoden 2024 kolmannella neljänneksellä, mutta muiden lainaehtojen koettiin kiristyneen entisestään. Inflaation odotettiin edelleen hidastuvan.
Yritysten rahoituksensaantikysely- 7 November 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 7 November 2024
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREA
- 5 November 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 5 November 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 31 October 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 31 October 2024
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 29 October 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 29 October 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 7 November 2024
- Slides by Philip Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the "Public Debt: Past Lessons, Future Challenges" conference organised by Bank of Greece in Athens, Greece
- 7 November 2024
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the annual ECB Conference on Money MarketsAnnexes
- 7 November 2024
- 6 November 2024
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Distinguished Speakers Seminar organised by the European Economics and Financial Centre, University of London
- 6 November 2024
- Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the tenth anniversary of the Single Supervisory Mechanism
- 5 November 2024
- Lecture by Ms Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy at Harvard University’s Department of Economics in Cambridge, MA, USA
- 31 October 2024
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert, Philippe Escande and Béatrice Madeline on 28 October 2024
- 29 October 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti
- 8 October 2024
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko
- 20 September 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Gonçalo Almeida on 13 September
- 4 September 2024
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 1 November 2024
- As they juggle various cards, apps and devices, most Europeans find that digital payments have fallen short of their promise to provide a convenient euro area-wide solution. The ECB’s Piero Cipollone explains how a digital euro would blend the simplicity of cash with digital convenience.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 24 October 2024
- People have tended to be quite hesitant to trust banks abroad. That seems to be changing. The ECB Blog shows that cross-border bank deposits of private households have picked up recently.
- 9 October 2024
- China has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value added for manufacturers in five countries.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
- 3 October 2024
- Monetary policy decisions have direct financial consequences for many consumers, especially as they influence mortgage conditions. The ECB Blog looks at how these effects differ based on consumers’ mortgage situations and why that matters for the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E49 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Other
- 25 September 2024
- The job of central banks is to help the economy navigate shocks and steer inflation back to target. This ECB Blog post asks what we can learn from past monetary policy cycles about how to control inflation while achieving a soft landing of the economy.
- 8 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2999Details
- Abstract
- In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases significantly shape how people think and act. Measuring mood or sentiment is challenging, but surveys and data collection methods, such as confidence indices and consensus forecasts, offer some solutions. Recently, the availability of web data, including search engine queries and social media activity, has provided high-frequency sentiment measures. For example, the Italian National Statistical Institute’s Social Mood on Economy Index (SMEI) uses Twitter data to assess economic sentiment in Italy. The relationship between SMEI and financial market activity, specifically the FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
G4 : Financial Economics
- 8 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2998Details
- Abstract
- During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus redistributes welfare between various age cohorts. Our assessment involves not only the income side of household balance sheets (mainly direct effects of transfers) but also the more obscure financing side that, to a substantial degree, occurred via indirect effects (with a prominent role of the inflation tax). Using a quantitative life-cycle model, and assuming that the deficit was partly unfunded by future taxes, we document that young households benefited from the stimulus, while middle-aged and older agents mainly paid the bill. Crucially, most welfare redistribution was due to indirect effects related to macroeconomic adjustment that resulted from the stimulus. As a consequence, even though all age cohorts received significant transfers, the welfare of some actually decreased.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- 8 November 2024
- LEGAL ACTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 8 November 2024
- LEGAL ACTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 8 November 2024
- LEGAL ACTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 7 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2997Details
- Abstract
- We examine how agglomeration economies have influenced labour earnings in France over forty years. First, we define cities dynamically to account for their changing footprints. Our findings show that aggregate wage growth is mainly driven by growth in larger cities, rather than smaller ones or by population shifts across cities. We estimate individual wages incorporating time-varying city and individual fixed effects, and analyse how city characteristics (employment density, area, and market access) and their returns impact wage evolution. Changes in the values of these characteristics have minimal effect, but changes in their returns significantly influence wages, with notable variation across cities. Overall, aggregate wage growth in France reflects larger returns to larger city size. Our model, that incorporate the impact of agglomeration economies on city size and population, suggests that changes in returns do not drive population or area changes sufficiently to impact aggregate labour earnings, supporting our empirical findings.
- JEL Code
- R23 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
J61 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers
- 7 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2996Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the interplay between discretionary fiscal policy and inflation in the euro area, emphasizing the role of public debt levels in modulating this relationship. It explores how fiscal expansions or contractions influence inflationary pressures, particularly under varying debt conditions. The analysis reveals that fiscal policy’s effect on inflation is non-linear, with debt levels significantly affecting the inflationary outcome of fiscal measures. High debt levels tend to amplify the inflation response to fiscal expansions, a finding that holds under multiple analytical frameworks and robustness checks. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy, especially in high-debt environments, and its implications for inflation dynamics in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 7 November 2024
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 7 November 2024
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 5 November 2024
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 25Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the complex linkages between commercial real estate (CRE) markets and the financial system. Examining data from a wide range of sources this article presents the first system-wide mapping of CRE exposures in the euro area. The exercise identifies several sectors – real estate companies, real estate investment funds and real estate investment trusts – with particularly large CRE exposures. Structural vulnerabilities among these key players increase their exposure to CRE market shocks and the likelihood that they could amplify these shocks. In the case of real estate investment funds, highlighting the need to develop a comprehensive macroprudential framework to address liquidity vulnerabilities. Moreover, the complexity of CRE exposures that arise from extensive debt and equity linkages between these key owners of CRE and their financiers adds a further layer of risk, with the potential to exacerbate uncertainty and feedback loops. Findings underline the importance of closely monitoring links between CRE and the financial system and continuing work to close data gaps related to these markets.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- 5 November 2024
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUSDetails
- Abstract
- This special focus examines the size and characteristics of bank lending to real estate investment funds (REIFs) in the euro area. Overall, bank lending to REIFs is limited in size, with financial stability risks appearing to be contained as a result. However, stress in the REIF sector could still expose banks to losses and could be exacerbated by the riskier nature of this loan portfolio. Finally, high financial leverage in the REIF sector could also pose risks, however, further analysis is required to assess possible risks from pockets of highly leveraged REIFs.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- 31 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 31 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the revisions in policy rate path expectations observed in the Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) and identifies key drivers of these revisions. Amid the interest rate hikes of 2022 and 2023, financial markets and analysts made frequent and sizeable adjustments to their expectations for ECB policy rate levels. SMA participants’ macroeconomic expectations, particularly changes regarding headline inflation and GDP growth, played a significant role in shaping revisions to expectations for deposit facility rate (DFR) levels, especially during the surge in inflation. At the same time, financial market expectations, as reflected in forward rates, accounted for another sizeable share of revisions. Over time, the relative importance of macroeconomic expectations in driving expectations for the policy rate path diminished, with financial market expectations playing a dominant role by 2023.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 31 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box presents newly released data on the activities of special-purpose entities (SPEs) in the external sector of the euro area. It shows that SPEs make a significant contribution to cross-border financial linkages. Overall, SPEs account for around a third of euro area foreign direct investment positions and more than 10% of total euro area cross-border financial linkages. Their importance varies substantially across countries. Although SPEs inflate the gross external positions of the euro area, their impact on the net international investment position is limited. The contribution made by SPEs in the euro area has declined recently from a high level amid national and global initiatives affecting the regulatory and taxation environments for multinational enterprises.
- JEL Code
- C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 31 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- In recent years rising oil prices have often coincided with a strengthening of the US dollar. A positive correlation means that oil imports priced in local currencies become more expensive for oil importers such as the euro area, adding to inflation dynamics. Historically, there has been no systematic co-movement between oil prices and the US dollar. However, recent studies suggest that a positive correlation might have become the new normal since the United States became a significant oil exporter. The empirical models presented in this box show that the structural change in the US oil market has not been sufficient to render the correlation between oil prices and the US dollar systematically positive. Instead, the co-movement observed continues to be largely the result of specific shocks that steer both variables in the same direction rather than the reflection of a structural change in the link between oil prices and the US dollar.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
- 31 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Following a series of analyses on the accuracy of Eurosystem/ECB staff projections for inflation in recent years, this box shifts the focus to staff projections for growth. It shows that since 2022, the growth projections have been very reliable in the very short term but have tended to be too optimistic over one-year horizons. Private consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment, have tended to disappoint, due in part to monetary policy being tighter than initially assumed and uncertainty about its economic impact. However, once adjusted for errors in the conditioning assumptions of the projections, the projection errors are notably smaller, especially over the past year. Overall, despite the series of large shocks which hit the euro area economy in recent years, staff growth projection errors have been comparable with pre-pandemic averages.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 30 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box provides an overview of fiscal developments in 2024 – as reflected in revisions in fiscal positions across rounds of Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections. For the euro area as a whole and in groups of countries with both high and low debt ratios, the cyclically adjusted fiscal positions projected for 2024 have gradually weakened since the September 2023 projection round. Overall, fiscal positions remain weaker in the high-debt country group than in the low-debt group. Considerable risks continue to surround fiscal positions in the short run and beyond, with mixed signals regarding the 2024 outcome. For 2025, draft budgetary plans provide for some consolidation so as, among other reasons, to comply with the requirements of the revised EU economic governance framework.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 30 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box illustrates how aggregate greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are showing increasing signs of fragmentation along geopolitical fault lines. Euro area outward flows are following this trend, with greenfield investments increasingly tilted towards the United States and away from China. However, firms have also stepped up investment between geopolitical blocs to boost local production content in anticipation of protectionist measures or retaliatory tariffs. Econometric evidence from gravity models shows that the overall effect of increasing geopolitical divides on FDI is negative, with FDI flows within geopolitical blocs being almost three times higher than FDI flows between geopolitical blocs in recent quarters. Moreover, the estimates suggest that global FDI flows were dampened by 3% following the increases in average geopolitical distance owing to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since then, geopolitical divides have become a particularly strong deterrent to greenfield FDI both into and out of the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
- 30 October 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 124Details
- Abstract
- Is the burden of distress in the banking sector shared equally among households, or is it distributed unevenly? Following the global financial crisis, the economic consequences of severe disruptions to the banking sector and the unequal impact of recessions have become a key concern of macroeconomic policy. This article examines how temporary banking sector losses affect households differently according to their income levels. The analysis reveals that low-income households bear most of the burden, while high-income households tend to be less adversely affected. While a fewhigh-income individuals exposed to bank dividends may face severe losses, those who are able to quickly adjust their portfolios may be able to take advantage of low asset prices, earn high returns going forward, and overall benefit from distress in the financial sector.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 29 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Consumer perceptions of the main drivers of inflation can affect their inflation expectations and, in turn, their economic behaviour. The results of the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for March 2024 reveal that most euro area consumers attribute inflation primarily to input costs, followed by profits and wages. However, the proportion of consumers identifying wages as the main driver of inflation has increased since June 2023, with this perception being most pronounced in countries experiencing significant wage growth. These evolving perceptions highlight the need to monitor shifts in inflation narratives and their potential impact on inflation expectations.
- JEL Code
- D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 29 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- The Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE) provides information on the financing needs of euro area firms, their economic performance, and the availability of external funding. The article illustrates the role that the SAFE has played over the past 15 years. First, it discusses the contribution of the survey to assessing the transmission of monetary policy decisions to firms’ access to finance and their financing conditions. Second, the article shows how SAFE-based data provide timely evidence of the impact of economic crises on firms’ performance. Third, the article documents the ability of SAFE-based indicators to track important shifts in the economic business cycle. Finally, the article discusses new survey modules that facilitate the analysis of the pricing and wage-setting behaviour of firms, along with their inflation expectations.
- JEL Code
- C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Korot
| Maksuvalmiusluoton korko | 3,65 % |
| Perusrahoitusoperaatioiden korko (kiinteä) | 3,40 % |
| Talletuskorko | 3,25 % |
Inflaatiovauhti
Lisätietoa inflaatiostaValuuttakurssit
| USD | US dollar | 1.0772 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 164.18 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83188 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9393 |
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