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Prohlášení na zasedání Mezinárodního měnového a finančního výboru

K určité úrokové trajektorii se předem nezavazujeme, uvedla prezidentka Christine Lagardeová. Pokud se zvýší naše přesvědčení, že se inflace přibližuje našemu 2% střednědobému cíli, bylo by na místě snížit stávající úroveň restrikce měnové politiky.

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ODPOVĚDNOST 18. dubna 2024

Naše odpověď na usnesení Evropského parlamentu

Právě jsme zveřejnili naši opověď na připomínky a dotazy, které Evropský parlament vznesl ve svém usnesení k naší výroční zprávě za rok 2022. Jejich témata sahají od měnové politiky ECB přes změnu klimatu až po digitální euro.

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ODPOVĚDNOST 18. dubna 2024

Naše výroční zpráva za rok 2023

Naše výroční zpráva za rok 2023 je nyní k dispozici ve 22 jazycích. Viceprezident Luis de Guindos ji 18. dubna 2024 představil Evropskému parlamentu. Jednal také o aktuálním hospodářském výhledu a o významu odolného finančního sektoru.

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BLOG ECB 18. dubna 2024

Aktualizované údaje: banky a změna klimatu

Aktualizovali jsme naše údaje týkající se dopadu změny klimatu na finanční systém. Jak výrazně by mohly být banky ovlivněny přírodním nebezpečím? Jak zelená jsou jejich úvěrová portfolia? Diskuse na blogu ECB se týkala nejen těchto poznatků ze zdokonalených údajů.

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18 April 2024
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
17 April 2024
PRESS RELEASE
16 April 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
16 April 2024
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
12 April 2024
GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONS
12 April 2024
PRESS RELEASE
19 April 2024
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-ninth meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
18 April 2024
Slides presented by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 2024 EU-US Symposium in Washington, DC
18 April 2024
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
17 April 2024
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the thirteenth conference organised by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy, “Monetary Policy Challenges during Uncertain Times”, at the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
17 April 2024
Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a meeting with the Italian Banking Association
19 March 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Michalis Psilos
English
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7 February 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 2 February 2024
3 February 2024
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Jonathan Witteman on 29 January 2024
English
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31 January 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Kolja Rudzio
English
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22 January 2024
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, French and German members of parliament and other personalities, published on n-tv.de
English
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18 April 2024
We updated our data on the impact of climate change on the financial system. How green are green bonds and banks’ loan portfolios? How strongly could they be affected by natural hazards? The ECB Blog discusses these and other new insights from the data.
Details
JEL Code
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G29 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Other
3 April 2024
Governments and central banks can shield the economy from shocks with their decisions. The ECB Blog looks at a recent high-level conference that analysed the interaction of fiscal and monetary policy and questioned some long-held beliefs.
Details
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
22 March 2024
The Eurosystem is shrinking its balance sheet, which makes more government bonds available for purchase. The ECB Blog looks at how markets are adjusting to this new situation with regard to bond price volatility, liquidity and the impact on repo markets.
Details
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
14 March 2024
Central banks have been collecting art for a long time. While the works were previously only accessible at their physical locations, more and more central banks now make their collections available online. The ECB Blog showcases four collections you can enjoy from wherever you are.
11 March 2024
In 2021-22 inflation surged due to the direct and indirect effects of the energy shock, together with a set of pandemic-related factors and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this post on The ECB Blog, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane looks at the monetary policy actions taken by the ECB in response to these extraordinary inflation shocks.
Details
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
19 April 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 April 2024
OTHER PUBLICATION
19 April 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2928
Details
Abstract
The evidence suggests that monetary policy transmission is asymmetric over the business cycle. Interacting financing frictions with a preference for liquidity provides an explanation for this fact. Our mechanism generates monetary asymmetries in a model that jointly reproduces a set of asset market and business cycle facts. Accounting for the joint dynamics of asset prices and business cycle fluctuations is key; in a variant of the model that is unable to produce realistic macro-finance implications, monetary asymmetries disappear. Our results suggest that asymmetries in the transmission mechanism critically depend on the macro-finance implications of monetary policy models, and that resorting to nonlinear techniques is not sufficient to detect monetary asymmetries.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
19 April 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2927
Details
Abstract
This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles in the euro area. Using proprietary data on purchases of public sector securities implemented by the Eurosystem, the paper examines the flow effects of asset purchase programmes on 10-year government bond yields in secondary markets around dates of public debt auctions. The findings indicate that Eurosystem’s asset purchase flows mitigate yield cycles during auction periods and counteract the amplification impact of market volatility. The dampening effect of central bank asset purchases on auction cycles is more sizeable and precisely estimated for purchases of securities with medium-term maturities and in jurisdictions with relatively lower credit ratings. The analysis has broader implications for monetary policy and market functioning in the euro area.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
19 April 2024
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 118
Details
Abstract
Some firms have the capacity to contribute significantly to economic productivity but cannot obtain the necessary capital for investment, which instead flows to less productive firms. While “misallocation of capital” and its detrimental impact on productivity is traditionally beyond the scope of central banks, monetary policy can influence it through firms’ investment decisions. Using a New Keynesian model and granular data on Spanish firms, our results show that expansionary monetary policy reduces capital misallocation. However, in committing to an optimal policy course, central banks are better off sticking to price stability rather than exploiting this channel to influence productivity.
JEL Code
E12 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Keynes, Keynesian, Post-Keynesian
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
L11 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms
18 April 2024
STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 48
Statistics Committee Expert Group on Climate Change and Statistics and Working Group on Securities
    Details
    Abstract
    Climate change entails risks to the global economy and impacts financial stability. Beyond managing related risks, the financial sector can also contribute to the transition toward a net-zero economy. Guided by the ECB’s climate and nature plan, this paper discusses the methodology and key findings of statistical indicators developed in three areas: sustainable finance, carbon emissions, and physical risk. Our work aims to enhance data transparency in climate change analysis, while informing monetary policy, financial stability and banking supervision. The indicators we have developed focus on the euro area financial sector and are built from harmonised granular datasets. They also utilise climate information from public sources to the extent possible.The sustainable finance metrics are built on well-established securities statistics and are at a more mature stage of development when compared with the other two climate risk indicators. While there are several data gaps that need to be addressed, the proposed statistical methodology offers a valuable framework for assessing climate risks in the European context, ensuring comparability across countries, time frames and under various climate scenarios. This paper discusses the methodology, underlying data, and findings for each set of indicators, while also flagging possible constraints and opportunities for future development.
    JEL Code
    Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
    Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
    Q59 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Other
    18 April 2024
    OTHER PUBLICATION
    18 April 2024
    ANNUAL REPORT
    18 April 2024
    OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 346
    Details
    Abstract
    A digital euro would provide the general public with an additional means of payment in the form of risk-free central bank money in digital form that is universally accepted for digital payments across the euro area. A digital euro would offer a wide range of financial stability benefits, including safeguarding the role of public money and strengthening the strategic autonomy and monetary sovereignty of the euro area in the digital era. It would be designed to have no material impact on financial stability or the transmission of monetary policy. This paper shows the usefulness of digital euro safeguards, such as holding limits, that would limit the impact of the introduction of a digital euro on banks’ liquidity and on their reliance on central bank funding. To this end, it assesses how banks might respond to the introduction of a digital euro while seeking to maximise profitability and manage their risks for a range of holding limit scenarios. The results of the simulated impact on key liquidity metrics show that, with safeguards in place and on aggregate, the liquidity metrics of euro area banks would decline but remain well above regulatory minimums. In addition, the central bank funding ratios of euro area banks would not increase materially on aggregate and would remain contained overall.
    JEL Code
    E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
    E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
    G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
    16 April 2024
    WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2926
    Details
    Abstract
    We shed light on the demand for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a means of payment, based on survey payment data. We provide a quantitative framework to assess transactional demand for CBDC at the point of sale, accommodating a wide range of design choices. We develop a structural model of payment means adoption and usage and estimate CBDC demand based on individuals’ preferences for payment method attributes. We disentangle the friction potentially associated to CBDC adoption, assessing two of its potential drivers: information frictions and gradual diffusion of digital payment methods. We find that modelling adoption is key to understanding CBDC demand. Finally, we show that optimal CBDC design, information campaigns, and network effects can substantially boost demand.
    JEL Code
    E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
    E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
    E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    15 April 2024
    SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
    15 April 2024
    OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 345
    Details
    Abstract
    This paper discusses the impact that a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could have on the implementation of monetary policy. Monetary policy implementation could be affected if the introduction of the retail CBDC changes the volume of commercial bank deposits held by customers, which would, in turn, affect central bank reserves. While it is often assumed that customer deposits would decrease if a CBDC was introduced, we provide arguments why this is by no means clear cut and deposits could even increase. If bank deposits do decrease, banks would need to draw on, and therefore reduce, their central bank reserve holdings. Moreover, uncertainty as to the timing and extent of any conversions of deposits into CBDC might prompt banks to scale up their demand for central bank reserves in order to hold larger precautionary buffers. Consequently, central banks might need to adjust their reserve supply and other features of their monetary policy implementation, depending, for example, on whether they use a floor or a corridor system for monetary policy implementation. In the specific case of the digital euro, the features already envisaged for its design would make it possible to minimise the risk of negative consequences for monetary policy implementation.
    JEL Code
    E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
    E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
    E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
    E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
    G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
    12 April 2024
    WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2925
    Details
    Abstract
    This paper extends Boone (2008) by introducing a competition measure at the individual firm level rather than for an entire market segment. It is based on the elasticity between profits and efficiency and called marginal relative profitability (MRP). Its intuition is that when a small change in efficiency derived from marginal costs can cause a large change in profits, a firm exercises pressure on its peers and gains profits. The MRP is embedded in the theoretical framework of Boone and measures competition vis-à-vis other market participants. We apply this extended Boone indicator to individual bank-level competition in the loan market in the four largest euro area countries and Austria. The MRP distribution is skewed to the left and many banks have a MRP below one, indicating that those banks have little incentive to enhance their efficiency to increase their profits. The MRP approach is shown to be a powerful tool to test the efficient-structure, structure-conduct performance, and ‘quiet life’ hypotheses and to detect comparatively weak non-competitive banks. Our new measure of firm-level competition enriches and complements other competition measures and provides a promising starting point for future market power analyses.
    JEL Code
    D4 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing
    L16 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change, Industrial Price Indices
    G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
    12 April 2024
    WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2924
    Details
    Abstract
    Investment funds hold a disproportionately larger fraction of domestic relative to foreign stocks. Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias. The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers. We use a “look-through approach” to account for this misclassification. First, we find substantially smaller home bias estimates compared to those in the literature. Second, the explanatory power of plausible home bias determinants is lower than previously documented. Third, familiarity only plays a meaningful role when investors are households, highlighting the role of investor sophistication.
    JEL Code
    G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
    G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
    G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
    12 April 2024
    OTHER PUBLICATION
    12 April 2024
    OTHER PUBLICATION
    Annexes
    12 April 2024
    ANNEX
    12 April 2024
    SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
    12 April 2024
    SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
    Annexes
    12 April 2024
    ANNEX
    12 April 2024
    ANNEX
    12 April 2024
    ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
    Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024
    Details
    Abstract
    This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 57 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 11 and 19 March 2024, aggregate activity was subdued at the start of the year, but there were some signs of a pick-up in demand and expectations of a gradual, albeit modest, recovery in the course of the year. Growth in selling prices picked up slightly in the first months of the year, owing mainly to a slight rebound in the prices of some intermediate goods and services. However, growth in prices closer to the final consumer continued to ease gradually, as did wage expectations.
    JEL Code
    E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
    E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    9 April 2024
    EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY
    Annexes
    9 April 2024
    EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
    Related

    Úrokové sazby

    Marginální zápůjční facilita 4,75 %
    Hlavní refinanční operace (s pevnou sazbou) 4,50 %
    Vkladová facilita 4,00 %
    20. září 2023 Historie základních úrokových sazeb ECB

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