MONETARNA POLITIKA
17. listopada 2024.
Posljednja konferencija ESB‑a za novinare
Predsjednica Christine Lagarde i potpredsjednik Luis de Guindos objasnili su najnovije odluke Upravnog vijeća o monetarnoj politici i odgovarali na pitanja novinara na konferenciji za novinare.
Više
PODCAST
17. listopada 2024.
Poslušajte naše najnovije odluke
Naše Upravno vijeće donijelo je odluke o monetarnoj politici, odnosno o koracima potrebnim za skori povratak inflacije na ciljnu razinu od 2 %. Poslušajte ovu epizodu, u kojoj predsjednica Christine Lagarde iznosi te odluke na konferenciji za novinare.
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Više- 22 October 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 22 October 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 18 October 2024
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 18 October 2024
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 18 October 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 18 October 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 18 October 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 22 October 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at seminar organised by Columbia University in New York, USA
- 17 October 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Ljubljana, 17 October 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 October 2024
- 16 October 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the official dinner of Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovenia
- 7 October 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2024: bridging science and practice
- 7 October 2024
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bundesbank Symposium on the Future of Payments
- 8 October 2024
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko
- 20 September 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Gonçalo Almeida on 13 September
- 4 September 2024
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 26 July 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 22 July 2024
- 23 July 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
- 9 October 2024
- China has been an important and reliable supplier of critical inputs for European industries for decades. But how vulnerable would our companies be if that suddenly stopped? The ECB Blog estimates the potential losses in value added for manufacturers in five countries.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
- 3 October 2024
- Monetary policy decisions have direct financial consequences for many consumers, especially as they influence mortgage conditions. The ECB Blog looks at how these effects differ based on consumers’ mortgage situations and why that matters for the transmission of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E49 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Other
- 25 September 2024
- The job of central banks is to help the economy navigate shocks and steer inflation back to target. This ECB Blog post asks what we can learn from past monetary policy cycles about how to control inflation while achieving a soft landing of the economy.
- 24 September 2024
- Hedge funds have substantially increased their trading activity in euro area government bond and repo markets. The ECB Blog evaluates how this plays out for market functioning and intermediation.Details
- JEL Code
- H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
- 17 September 2024
- Energy-intensive firms continue to suffer from low profits margins even as energy prices have fallen from their peak. The ECB Blog discusses implications for the green transition in the EU.
- 22 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2993Details
- Abstract
- The phenomenon of political populism and its financial determinants have proved elusive. We utilise the sudden and uneven change in credit conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented government credit guarantee programme in France to investigate whether liquidity support to firms affects political preferences. Drawing on credit registry data – which provides the universe of loans and credit lines to firms – we build a postcode-municipality-level dataset and show that government-guaranteed credit reduced the support for the far right but increased it for the incumbent. The underlying economic channel shows that credit guarantees preserved employment, which in turn influenced political preferences. Effects are driven by microenterprises, predominantly self-employed businesses in which the employee-owner-voter is fully aware of the government financial support, i.e., where government support is more salient. This study does not aim to evaluate policies to address the popularity of populist politics.
- JEL Code
- D72 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
- 22 October 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 357Details
- Abstract
- Understanding asymmetric risks in macroeconomic variables is challenging. Most structural models used for policy analysis are linearised and therefore cannot generate asymmetries such as those documented in the empirical growth-at-risk (GaR) literature. This report examines how structural models can incorporate non-linearities to generate tail risks. The first part reviews the various extensions to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and the computational challenges involved in accounting for risk distributions. This includes the use of occasionally binding constraints and more recent developments, such as deep learning, to solve non-linear versions of DSGEs. The second part shows how the New Keynesian DSGE model, augmented with the vulnerability channel as proposed by Adrian et al. (2020a, b), satisfactorily replicates key empirical facts from the GaR literature for the euro area. Furthermore, introducing a vulnerability channel into an open-economy set-up and a medium-sized DSGE highlights the importance of foreign financial shocks and financial frictions, respectively. Other non-linearities arising from financial frictions are also addressed, such as borrowing constraints that are conditional on an asset’s value, and the way macroprudential policies acting against those constraints can help stabilise the economy and generate positive spillovers to monetary policy. Finally, the report examines how other types of tail risk beyond financial frictions – such as the recent asymmetric supply-side shocks – can be incorporated into macroeconomic models used for policy analysis.
- JEL Code
- E70 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
D50 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 21 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2992Details
- Abstract
- We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) —that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition —might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, France, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, our framework allows us to assess how much geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies differently. Our baseline calibration suggests that a 50% reduction in imports of FCIs from China and other countries with similar geopolitical orientations would result in sizable losses of value added with significant heterogeneity across firms, sectors, regions and countries, driven by the heterogeneous exposure of firms. Our findings show that the short-term costs of supply disruptions of FCIs can be substantial, especially if firms cannot easily switch away from these inputs.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F50 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→General
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
- 21 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2991Details
- Abstract
- We study the application of approximate mean field variational inference algorithms to Bayesian panel VAR models in which an exchangeable prior is placed on the dynamic parameters and the residuals follow either a Gaussian or a Student-t distribution. This reduces the estimation time of possibly several hours using conventional MCMC methods to less than a minute using variational inference algorithms. Next to considerable speed improvements, our results show that the approximations accurately capture the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks as well as overall parameter uncertainty. The application with Student-t residuals shows that it is computationally easy to include the COVID-19 observations in Bayesian panel VARs, thus offering a fast way to estimate such models.
- JEL Code
- C18 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Methodological Issues: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 21 October 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 18 October 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 18 October 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 18 October 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 18 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2990Details
- Abstract
- Firms’ perceived cost of green capital has decreased since the rise of sustainable investing. Green and brown firms perceived their cost of capital to be the same before 2016, but after the post-2016 surge in sustainable investing, green firms perceived their cost of capital to be on average 1 percentage point lower. This difference has widened as sustainable investing has intensified. Within some of the largest energy and utility firms, managers have started applying a lower cost of capital to greener divisions. The changes in the perceived cost of green capital incentivize cross-firm and within-firm reallocation of capital toward greener investments.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G41 : Financial Economics
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 18 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2989Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses how country-specific institutional quality shapes the impact of monetary policy on downside risks to GDP growth in the euro area. Using identified high-frequency shocks in a growth-at-risk framework, we show that monetary policy has a higher impact on downside risks in the short term than in the medium term. However, this result for the euro area average hides significant heterogeneity across countries. In economies with weak institutional quality, medium-term growth risks increase substantially following contractionary monetary policy shocks. In contrast, these risks remain relatively stable in countries with high institutional quality. This suggests that improvements in institutional quality could significantly enhance euro area countries’ economic resilience and support the smooth transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
- 18 October 2024
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 18 October 2024
- ANNEX
- 18 October 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 95 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 16 and 26 September 2024, business momentum slowed somewhat over the summer, mainly as a result of declining confidence in the industrial sector, causing firms to scale back investment and focus on cost cutting. Meanwhile, the anticipated recovery in consumer spending was still rather patchy. Price growth moderated further overall, mainly on account of some easing in services prices. Wage growth was expected to slow further next year, while still compensating to some extent for past inflation.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 18 October 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 18 October 2024
- ANNEX
Related - 15 October 2024
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 15 October 2024
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 15 October 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 8 October 2024
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- The change in macroeconomic conditions since the ECB’s strategy review in 2021 towards an environment characterised by above-target inflation, high interest rates, and renewed concerns about elevated government debt has been a vocal reminder of the intricate interdependencies between monetary and fiscal policies. Against this background, our paper reviews the literature on how central banks’ ability to maintain price stability is shaped by their interactions with fiscal policy and the state of the economy. According to standard models, a policy framework aimed at price stability requires suitable commitments from both monetary and fiscal authorities. When public debt burdens become too high, price stability may be at risk. The paper also draws lessons on how to mitigate such risks.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 7 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2988Details
- Abstract
- The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights than imposed as a percentage of Risk-Weighted Assets (RWAs) under Pillar 2. In other words, market discipline on bank capital adequacy is sensitive to the composition of the capital requirement stack. Therefore, this paper contributes novel insights to existing research on the market relevance of regulatory capital ratios, on the functioning of the Basel framework, and on market discipline along with its relationship with Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 capital requirements. The findings are relevant in light of the continuous discussions around the capital regulation for Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) and other Pillar 2 risks because they suggest that risks are more disciplined by markets if they are reflected in regulatory capital ratios via RWAs. Moreover, the results suggest that further regulatory alignment within the EU can impact the comparability of regulatory capital ratios and affect pricing decisions. In the first empirical step, the research investigates the drivers of CDS and identifies a significant relationship between CDS spreads and regulatory capital ratios. In the second step, the paper researches a quasi-natural experiment based on an event in the EU banking sector. In 2018, the Swedish supervisory authority changed the implementation approach of a risk weight floor on Swedish mortgages by shifting it from Pillar 2 to Pillar 1 while keeping total capital requirements stable. To assess if this merely technical regulatory adjustment triggered an unexpected reaction by markets, a two-step system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) regression is applied to a sample of CDS spreads of 21 European banks between 2014 and 2020.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 7 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2987Details
- Abstract
- Using a new series of crypto shocks, we document that money market funds’ (MMF) assets under management, and traditional financial market variables more broadly, do not react to crypto shocks, whereas stablecoin market capitalization does. U.S. monetary policy shocks, in contrast, drive developments in both crypto and traditional markets. Crucially, the reaction of MMF assets and stablecoin market capitalization to monetary policy shocks is different: while prime-MMF assets rise after a monetary policy tightening, stablecoin market capitalization declines. In assessing the state of the stablecoin market, the risk-taking environment as dictated by monetary policy is much more consequential than flight-to-quality dynamics observed within stablecoins and MMFs.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 2 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2986Details
- Abstract
- We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers’ responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher estimates of the pass-through than those obtained from micro data. Our methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which turns out to be particularly large for moderate inflation expectations. We find significant heterogeneity in the inflation pass-through across countries, ages and income groups, consistent with different wage and pension indexation regimes.
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 1 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2985Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank’s profit and loss statement. Ourfindings reveal, however, that while the interplay of such policies may dampen short-term profitability if interest rates rise, they do not undermine a central bank’s financial strength, because higher interest rates also raise the value of future seigniorage income. Using data for the euro area, we quantify the consequences for inflation of setting interest rates aimed at mitigating financial losses, showing that such a strategy would lead to substantially higher inflation rates. Overall, our findings confirm that a central bank’s willingness to accept temporary losses reflects a commitment to price stability, rather than a hindrance.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 1 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2984Details
- Abstract
- We explore the increasing divergence between economic growth and energy consumption through energy-saving technical progress. Proposing a new measure of energy-saving technology, we study the underlying drivers in a semi-structural model of the U.S. economy. Our analysis shows that energy price shocks reduce consumption and stimulate energy-saving innovation, but also cause economic downturns and crowd out other innovations. Only energy-saving technology shocks can explain the negative co-movement between output and energy use. These sudden efficiency gains emerge as the primary driver of energy-saving technical change. Our findings highlight the importance of fostering energy-saving innovations in transitioning to a low-carbon economy.
- JEL Code
- E0 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
Q32 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation→Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
Q55 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Technological Innovation
Kamatne stope
| mogućnost granične posudbe od središnje banke | 3,65 % |
| glavne operacije refinanciranja (nepromjenjiva kamatna stopa) | 3,40 % |
| stalno raspoloživa mogućnost deponiranja | 3,25 % |
Stopa inflacije
Više o inflacijiTečajevi
| USD | US dollar | 1.0821 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 163.22 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83340 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9365 |
NISTE STRUČNJAK? PROČITAJTE NAŠA OBJAŠNJENJA
VIŠE
Što je Europska središnja banka?