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Yiqiao Sun

Economics

Division

Business Cycle Analysis

Current Position

Research Analyst

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics,Economic Growth

Email

Yiqiao.Sun@ecb.europa.eu

Other current responsibilities
2018-

Working Group of Forecasting

Education
2012-2019

PhD in Economics, WHU - Otto Beisheim School

2009-2011

MSc in International Economics & Finance, University of Tübingen

2006-2009

BSc in Economics and Management, Université de Paris IX-Dauphine

Professional experience
2018-

DG Economics, Business Cycle Analysis Division

2015-2017

DG Economics, Prices and Costs Division

25 January 2017
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2006
Details
Abstract
Most euro area countries have entered an unprecedented ageing process: life expectancy continues to rise and fertility rates have declined, while retirement age in the last twenty to thirty years hardly increased. This implies an ever smaller fraction of the working age population in total population, leading to changes in consumption and saving behaviours and having an important impact on the macroeconomy. In this paper we focus on the relationship between demographic change and inflation. We find that based on a cointegrated VAR model there is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and the growth rate of working-age population as a share in total population in the euro area countries as a whole, but also in the US and Germany. We also find that this relation is mitigated by the effect of monetary policy, which we account for by including the short-term interest rate in our analysis. One caveat of the analysis could be that the empirical relationship as found does not sufficiently take into account changes in policy settings following the high inflation experiences in the 1970s. Our findings support the view that demographic trends are among the forces that shape the economic environment in which monetary policy operates. This is particularly relevant for countries, like many in Europe, that face an ageing process.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Network
Task force on low inflation (LIFT)
7 January 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020
Details
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the lockdown measures to contain its spread caused large cumulated losses in euro area domestic demand in the first half of 2020, with a rebound in the third quarter of the year, according to the standard expenditure-based breakdown of GDP. However, an adjustment for import intensities derived from input-output data shows that external factors have also contributed significantly to growth dynamics in 2020. While an extended analysis based on ratios of sectoral imports to value added as a proxy suggests that import intensities may have, in aggregate, risen somewhat in the current crisis, this does not have a significant impact on the alternative, import-adjusted GDP breakdown for 2020.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles