Tobias Schuler
Economics
- Division
-
Euro Area External Sector
- Current Position
-
Senior Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2017
PhD in Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy
- Professional experience
- 2021
Senior Economist - Euro Area External Sector Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2019
Economist - Euro Area External Sector Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2017-2018
Economist and Post-doctoral Researcher - ifo Institute, Center for Macroeconomics, University of Munich
- Awards
- 2019
Best Paper Award in Fiscal Policy Seminar - German Ministry of Finance
- Teaching experience
- 2018
Current Topics in International Finance, Coburg University, Germany
- 2017
International Financial Management, John Cabot University, Rome, Italy
- 23 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box documents recent transport and input-related bottlenecks in global trade and shows how euro area countries have been particularly affected. An empirical analysis assesses the impact of supply bottlenecks on global and euro area export growth and estimates the cumulated shortfall for the level of goods exports to be 6.7% for the euro area and 2.3% for the rest of the world.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 13 September 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2588Details
- Abstract
- In response to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, there has been a complementary approach to monetary and fiscal policy in the United States with the Federal Reserve System purchasing extraordinary quantities of securities and the government running a deficit of some 17% of projected GDP. The Federal Reserve pushed the discount rate close to zero and stabilised financial markets with emergency liquidity provided through a new open-ended long-term asset purchase programme. To capture the interventions, we develop a model in which the central bank uses reserves to buy much of the huge issuance of government bonds and this offsets the impact of shutdowns and lockdowns in the real economy. We show that these actions reduced lending costs and amplified the impact of supportive fiscal policies. We then run a counterfactual analysis which suggests that if the Federal Reserve had not intervened to such a degree, the economy may have experienced a significantly deeper contraction as a result from the Covid-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 27 August 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2586Details
- Abstract
- We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 4 May 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This article aims to take stock of how Brexit-related developments in UK import demand affected euro area foreign demand over the period 2016-19. UK import growth has slowed markedly since the Brexit referendum in 2016, particularly in terms of imports from the EU. We find that the depreciation of sterling squeezed UK household purchasing power, leading to lower import demand. We employ an ECM regression of UK import growth on the various GDP components and relative prices and detect a reduction in the UK’s overall import propensity since the referendum. We also identify sustainability risks for euro area foreign demand emanating from the UK’s balance of payments.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
- 4 January 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic for the euro area tourism sector, trade in travel services and consumption of non-residents. Declining mobility during the pandemic has led to a slump in trade in services and tourism. As a result, the drop in non-resident consumption has acted as a shock amplification mechanism in countries exporting tourism services, i.e. countries which receive a lot of tourists, and as a shock absorption mechanism in countries importing tourism services. The partial recovery of tourism services observed during the summer months was mostly generated by domestic tourism substituting foreign tourism. The reintroduction of travel restrictions in October will likely imply that this substitution will continue to affect the dynamics of tourism services. High-frequency data on tourism, travel and services production point to a renewed overall deterioration of tourism services in the final quarter of 2020.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
Z3 : Other Special Topics
- 31 August 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2463Details
- Abstract
- The Federal Reserve responded to the global financial crisis by initiating an unprecedented expansion of central bank money (bank reserves) once the policy rate had reached the lower bound. To capture the salient features of the crisis, we develop a model where the central bank can provide reserves on demand and also use reserves to buy government bonds. We show that the provision of reserves through either channel reduces the cost of providing loans as they act as a substitute for private sector collateral and costly monitoring activity. We illustrate this mechanism by examining the role of reserves in projecting stable growth in broad money after the financial crisis. We also run a counterfactual which suggests that, if the Federal Reserve had not provided bank reserves on such a large scale, broad money would have fallen, the economy might have experienced a deeper contraction, and the recovery would have been more protracted, taking perhaps twice as long to return to equilibrium.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
- 17 June 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The lockdown measures adopted to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and confidence effects are having a significant impact on euro area trade in services. Among several heterogeneous sectors, those involving physical contact are severely affected. The travel sector has been particularly disrupted owing to travel restrictions and the closure of tourist sites. With regard to passenger transportation, the airline industry in particular faces sustained headwinds. Some euro area countries which depend on travel and tourism face particularly adverse economic consequences.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
L83 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Sports, Gambling, Restaurants, Recreation, Tourism
- 26 May 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2416Details
- Abstract
- After a first phasing out of the ECB’s net asset purchases at end-2018, the question of how a future tightening of the ECB’s monetary policy may affect countries located in the vicinity of the euro area has gained prominence, but has been left largely unanswered so far. Our paper aims to close this gap for the CESEE region by employing shock-specific conditional forecasts, a methodology that has been little exploited in this context. Besides demonstrating the usefulness of our framework, we obtain three key findings characterising the spillovers of ECB monetary policy to CESEE economies: first, a euro area monetary tightening does trigger sizeable spillovers to the CESEE region. Second, we show that in the context of a demand shock-induced monetary tightening, which is more realistic than the usual approach taken in the literature, CESEE countries’ output and prices actually respond positively. Third, spillovers on output and prices in CESEE countries are heterogeneous, and depend on the trajectory of euro area tightening.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 3 December 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2336Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyzes the effects of several policy instruments for mitigating financial bubbles generated in the banking sector. We augment a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework by endogenizing boundedly-rational expectations on asset values of loan portfolios, allow for interbank trading and show how a credit bubble can develop from a financial innovation. We then evaluate the efficacy of several policy instruments in counteracting financial bubbles. We find that an endogenous capital requirement reduces the impact of a financial bubble significantly while central bank intervention (“leaning against the wind”) proves to be less effective. A welfare analysis ranks the policy reaction through an endogenous capital requirement highest. We therefore provide a rationale for the use of countercyclical capital buffers.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 2017
- Journal of Financial Stability
- 2018
- EconPol Policy Brief