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Economic analysis

In our economic analysis, we look at developments in the short term in economic growth, employment and inflation. We assess what causes the shocks affecting the euro area economy and, together with the national central banks of the euro area, we produce projections of the key macroeconomic variables over a medium-term horizon. That gives an indication of how we expect the economy to develop over the next few years. We also evaluate the risk that future economic growth and inflation might not turn out as we expect.

We regularly review, among other things:

  • developments in overall output and its components;
  • supply and demand conditions;
  • labour market conditions;
  • a broad range of price and cost indicators;
  • consumer and business surveys;
  • fiscal policy; and
  • trade flows into and out of the euro area.

Macroeconomic projections

The macroeconomic projections are produced by ECB and euro area national central bank staff. They forecast many real and nominal variables over the next three years.

Macroeconomic projections Past projection ranges


Find out more about our strategy

Strategy review

The aim of the ECB’s strategy review was to make sure our monetary policy strategy is fit for purpose, both today and in the future.

The outcome of our strategy review

Our revised analytical framework

Our analysis acts as a window into the economy. Through it, we can see how the economy is evolving. That helps us make the right monetary policy decisions.

Our analytical framework and the strategy review

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