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Past macroeconomic projection ranges

Twice a year, both ECB staff (March and September) and Eurosystem staff (June and December) publish macroeconomic projections for the euro area. The ranges indicate the projected average annual percentage changes. The projections are a key element in sharpening the assessment of macroeconomic developments.

This page presents all projections since 2000.

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

December 2020 (annual percentage changes)
  2020 2021 2022 2023
HICP 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.4
Real GDP -7.3 3.9 4.2 2.1
Note: This table does not show ranges around the projections. This reflects the fact that the standard computation of the ranges (based on historical projection errors) would not, in the present circumstances, provide a reliable indication of the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the current projections. Instead, in order to better illustrate the current uncertainty, alternative scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated containment measures are provided in Box 3 of the projections article.
June 2020 (annual percentage changes)
  2019 2020 2021 2022
HICP 1.2 0.3 0.8 1.3
Real GDP 1.2 -8.7 5.2 3.3
Note: This table does not show ranges around the projections. This reflects the fact that the standard computation of the ranges (based on historical projection errors) would not, in the present circumstances, provide a reliable indication of the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the current projections. Instead, in order to better illustrate the current uncertainty, alternative scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated containment measures are provided in Box 3 of the projections article.

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2020 (annual percentage changes)
  2019 2020 2021 2022
HICP 1.2 0.3 1.0 1.3
Real GDP 1.3 -8.0 5.0 3.2
Note: This table does not show ranges around the projections. This reflects the fact that the standard computation of the ranges (based on historical projection errors) would not, in the present circumstances, provide a reliable indication of the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the current projections. Instead, in order to better illustrate the current uncertainty, alternative scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated containment measures are provided in Box 3 of the projections article.
March 2020 (annual percentage changes)
  2019 2020 2021 2022
HICP 1.2 1.1
[0.8 - 1.4]		 1.4
[0.7 - 2.1]		 1.6
[0.8 - 2.4]
Real GDP 1.2 0.8
[0.4 - 1.2]		 1.3
[0.4 - 2.2]		 1.4
[0.5 - 2.3]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

December 2019 (annual percentage changes)
  2019 2020 2021 2022
HICP 1.2
[1.2 - 1.2]		 1.1
[0.6 - 1.6]		 1.4
[0.7 - 2.1]		 1.6
[0.8 - 2.4]
Real GDP 1.2
[1.1 - 1.3]		 1.1
[0.5 - 1.7]		 1.4
[0.5 - 2.3]		 1.4
[0.4 - 2.4]
June 2019 (annual percentage changes)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
HICP 1.8 1.3
[1.2 - 1.4]		 1.4
[0.7 - 2.1]		 1.6
[0.8 - 2.4]
Real GDP 1.8 1.2
[0.9 - 1.5]		 1.4
[0.5 - 2.3]		 1.4
[0.4 - 2.4]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2019 (annual percentage changes)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
HICP 1.8 1.2
[1.1 - 1.3]		 1.0
[0.4 - 1.6]		 1.5
[0.7 - 2.3]
Real GDP 1.9 1.1
[0.9 - 1.3]		 1.2
[0.4 - 2.0]		 1.4
[0.4 - 2.4]
March 2019 (annual percentage changes)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
HICP 1.7 1.2
[0.9 - 1.5]		 1.5
[0.8 - 2.2]		 1.6
[0.8 - 2.4]
Real GDP 1.9 1.1
[0.7 - 1.5]		 1.6
[0.7 - 2.5]		 1.5
[0.5 - 2.5]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

December 2018 (annual percentage changes)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
HICP 1.8
[1.8 - 1.8]		 1.6
[1.1 - 2.1]		 1.7
[0.9 - 2.5]		 1.8
[0.9 - 2.7]
Real GDP 1.9
[1.8 - 2.0]		 1.7
[1.1 - 2.3]		 1.7
[0.8 - 2.6]		 1.5
[0.5 - 2.5]
June 2018 (annual percentage changes)
  2017 2018 2019 2020
HICP 1.5 1.7
[1.6 - 1.8]		 1.7
[1.0 - 2.4]		 1.7
[0.9 - 2.5]
Real GDP 2.5 2.1
[1.8 - 2.4]		 1.9
[0.9 - 2.9]		 1.7
[0.6 - 2.8]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2018 (annual percentage changes)
  2017 2018 2019 2020
HICP 1.5 1.7
[1.6 - 1.8]		 1.7
[1.1 - 2.3]		 1.7
[0.9 - 2.5]
Real GDP 2.5 2.0
[1.8 - 2.2]		 1.8
[1.0 - 2.6]		 1.7
[0.6 - 2.8]
March 2018 (annual percentage changes)
  2017 2018 2019 2020
HICP 1.5 1.4
[1.1 - 1.7]		 1.4
[0.6 - 2.2]		 1.7
[0.8 - 2.6]
Real GDP 2.5 2.4
[2.1 - 2.7]		 1.9
[0.9 - 2.9]		 1.7
[0.7 - 2.7]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

December 2017 (annual percentage changes)
  2017 2018 2019 2020
HICP 1.5
[1.5 - 1.5]		 1.4
[0.9 - 1.9]		 1.5
[0.7 - 2.3]		 1.7
[0.8 - 2.6]
Real GDP 2.4
[2.3 - 2.5]		 2.3
[1.7 - 2.9]		 1.9
[0.9 - 2.9]		 1.7
[0.6 - 2.8]
June 2017 (annual percentage changes)
  2016 2017 2018 2019
HICP 0.2 1.5
[1.4 - 1.6]		 1.3
[0.6 - 2.0]		 1.6
[0.7 - 2.5]
Real GDP 1.7 1.9
[1.6 - 2.2]		 1.8
[0.8 - 2.8]		 1.7
[0.6 - 2.8]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2017 (annual percentage changes)
  2016 2017 2018 2019
HICP 0.2 1.5
[1.4 - 1.6]		 1.2
[0.6 - 1.8]		 1.5
[0.7 - 2.3]
Real GDP 1.8 2.2
[2.1 - 2.3]		 1.8
[1.0 - 2.6]		 1.7
[0.6 - 2.8]
March 2017 (annual percentage changes)
  2016 2017 2018 2019
HICP 0.2 1.7
[1.4 - 2.0]		 1.6
[0.9 - 2.3]		 1.7
[0.8 - 2.6]
Real GDP 1.7 1.8
[1.5 - 2.1]		 1.7
[0.7 - 2.7]		 1.6
[0.5 - 2.7]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

December 2016 (annual percentage changes)
  2016 2017 2018 2019
HICP 0.2
[0.2 - 0.2]		 1.3
[0.8 - 1.8]		 1.5
[0.7 - 2.3]		 1.7
[0.9 - 2.5]
Real GDP 1.7
[1.6 - 1.8]		 1.7
[1.1 - 2.3]		 1.6
[0.6 - 2.6]		 1.6
[0.4 - 2.8]
June 2016 (annual percentage changes)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
HICP 0.0 0.2
[0.1 - 0.3]		 1.3
[0.6 - 2.0]		 1.6
[0.7 - 2.5]
Real GDP 1.6 1.6
[1.3 - 1.9]		 1.7
[0.7 - 2.7]		 1.7
[0.5 - 2.9]
 

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2016 (annual percentage changes)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
HICP 0.0 0.2
[0.1 - 0.3]		 1.2
[0.6 - 1.8]		 1.6
[0.8 - 2.4]
Real GDP 1.9 1.7
[1.5 - 1.9]		 1.6
[0.7 - 2.5]		 1.6
[0.4 - 2.8]
March 2016 (annual percentage changes)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
HICP 0.0 0.1
[-0.2 - 0.4]		 1.3
[0.6 - 2.0]		 1.6
[0.8 - 2.4]
Real GDP 1.5 1.4
[1.0 - 1.8]		 1.7
[0.7 - 2.7]		 1.8
[0.6 - 3.0]
 

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2015 (annual percentage changes)
  2014 2015 2016 2017
HICP 0.4 0.1
[0.0 - 0.2]		 1.1
[0.5 - 1.7]		 1.7
[0.9 - 2.5]
Real GDP 0.9 1.4
[1.3 - 1.5]		 1.7
[0.8 - 2.6]		 1.8
[0.6 - 3.0]
 

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

March 2015
  2014 2015 2016 2017
HICP 0.4 0.0
[-0.3 - 0.3]		 1.5
[0.8 - 2.2]		 1.8
[1.0 - 2.6]
Real GDP 0.9 1.5
[1.1 - 1.9]		 1.9
[0.8 - 3.0]		 2.1
[0.9 - 3.3]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2015 (annual percentage changes)
  2014 2015 2016 2017
HICP 0.4 0.1
[0.1 - 0.1]
 1.0
[0.5 - 1.5]		 1.6
[0.9 - 2.3]
Real GDP 0.9 1.5
[1.4 - 1.6]		 1.7
[1.1 - 2.3]		 1.9
[0.9 - 2.9]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

June 2015
  2014 2015 2016 2017
HICP 0.4 0.3
[0.2 - 0.4]
 1.5
[0.9 - 2.1]		 1.8
[1.0 - 2.6]
Real GDP 0.9 1.5
[1.1 - 1.9]		 1.9
[0.5 - 3.3]		 2.0
[0.3 - 3.7]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2014
  2013 2014 2015 2016
HICP 1.4 0.6
[0.5 - 0.7]		 1.1
[0.5 - 1.7]		 1.4
[0.7 - 2.1]
Real GDP -0.4 0.9
[0.7 - 1.1]		 1.6
[0.6 - 2.6]		 1.9
[0.6 - 3.2]
March 2014
  2013 2014 2015 2016
HICP 1.4 1.0
[0.7 - 1.3]
 1.3
[0.6 - 2.0]		 1.5
[0.7 - 2.3]
Real GDP -0.4 1.2
[0.8 - 1.6]		 1.5
[0.4 - 2.6]		 1.8
[0.7 - 2.9]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2014
  2013 2014 2015 2016
HICP 1.4 0.5
[0.5 - 0.5]
 0.7
[0.2 - 1.2]		 1.3
[0.6 - 2.0]
Real GDP -0.4 0.8
[0.7 - 0.9]		 1.0
[0.4 - 1.6]		 1.5
[0.4 - 2.6]
June 2014
  2013 2014 2015 2016
HICP 1.4 0.7
[0.6 - 0.8]
 1.1
[0.5 - 1.7]
 1.4
[0.6 - 2.2]
Real GDP -0.4 1.0
[0.6 - 1.4]
 1.7
[0.6 - 2.8]
 1.8
[0.5 - 3.1]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2013
  2012 2013 2014
HICP 2.5 1.5
[1.4 , 1.6]
 1.3
[0.7 , 1.9]
Real GDP -0.6 -0.4
[-0.6 , -0.2]		 1.0
[0.0 , 2.0]
 Private consumption -1.4 -0.7
[-0.9 , -0.5]		 0.7
[-0.2 , 1.6]
 Government consumption -0.5 -0.1
[-0.6 , 0.4]		 0.6
[0.0 , 1.2]
 Gross fixed capital formation -4.0 -3.6
[-4.4 , -2.8]		 1.8
[-0.7 , 4.3]
 Exports (goods and services) 2.7 0.9
[-0.4 , 2.2]		 3.6
[0.1 , 7.1]
 Imports (goods and services) -0.9 -0.6
[-1.9 , 0.7]		 3.8
[0.3 , 7.3]
March 2013
  2012 2013 2014
HICP 2.5 [1.2 , 2.0] [0.6 , 2.0]
Real GDP -0.5 [-0.9 , -0.1] [0.0 , 2.0]
 Private consumption -1.2 [-1.3 , -0.3] [-0.3 , 1.5]
 Government consumption 0.0 [-0.9 , -0.1] [-0.4 , 1.2]
 Gross fixed capital formation -4.0 [-3.8 , -1.0] [-0.9 , 3.5]
 Exports (goods and services) 2.9 [-1.3 , 3.5] [0.8 , 7.8]
 Imports (goods and services) -0.7 [-2.1 , 2.3] [1.0 , 7.2]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2013
  2012 2013 2014 2015
HICP 2.5 1.4
[1.4 - 1.4]
 1.1
[0.6 - 1.6]
 1.3
[0.5 - 2.1]
Real GDP -0.6 -0.4
[-0.5 - -0.3]
 1.1
[0.4 - 1.8]
 1.5
[0.4 - 2.6]
June 2013
  2012 2013 2014
HICP 2.5 1.4
[1.3 , 1.5]
 1.3
[0.7 , 1.9]
Real GDP -0.5 -0.6
[-1.0 , -0.2]
 1.1
[0.0 , 2.2]
 Private consumption -1.3 -0.8
[-1.1 , -0.5]
 0.6
[-0.5 , 1.7]
 Government consumption -0.4 -0.1
[-0.6 , 0.4]
 0.6
[-0.1 , 1.3]
 Gross fixed capital formation -4.2 -2.9
[-4.1 , -1.7]
 1.8
[-0.9 , 4.5]
 Exports (goods and services) 2.9 0.8
[-1.0 , 2.6]
 4.1
[0.3 , 7.9]
 Imports (goods and services) -0.7 -0.7
[-2.5 , 1.1]
 3.8
[0.1 , 7.5]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2012
  2011 2012 2013
HICP 2.7 [2.4 , 2.6] [1.3 , 2.5]
Real GDP 1.5 [-0.6 , -0.2] [-0.4 , 1.4]
 Private consumption 0.2 [-1.1 , -0.7] [-0.8 , 0.8]
 Government consumption -0.3 [-0.8 , 0.2] [-0.8 , 0.4]
 Gross fixed capital formation 1.5 [-4.1 , -2.5] [-1.7 , 2.7]
 Exports (goods and services) 6.4 [1.8 , 4.4] [1.1 , 8.1]
 Imports (goods and services) 4.2 [-1.3 , 1.3] [0.3 , 7.1]
March 2012
  2011 2012 2013
HICP 2.7 [2.1 , 2.7] [0.9 , 2.3]
Real GDP 1.5 [-0.5 , 0.3] [0.0 , 2.2]
 Private consumption 0.2 [-0.7 , 0.1] [0.0 , 1.6]
 Government consumption 0.2 [-0.6 , 0.2] [-0.1 , 1.3]
 Gross fixed capital formation 1.6 [-2.6 , 0.2] [-0.9 , 3.7]
 Exports (goods and services) 6.4 [0.1 , 5.1] [0.7 , 8.1]
 Imports (goods and services) 4.1 [-1.1 , 3.5] [0.7 , 7.3]
 

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2012
  2011 2012 2013 2014
HICP 2.7 [2.5 , 2.5] [1.1 , 2.1] [0.6 , 2.2]
Real GDP 1.5 [-0.6 , -0.4] [-0.9 , 0.3] [0.2 , 2.2]
 Private consumption 0.1 [-1.2 , -1.0] [-1.1 , -0.1] [-0.4 , 1.4]
 Government consumption -0.2 [-0.6 , 0.2] [-1.2 , 0.0] [-0.4 , 1.2]
 Gross fixed capital formation 1.6 [-4.2 , -3.4] [-4.2 , -1.0] [-1.0 , 3.6]
 Exports (goods and services) 6.5 [2.1 , 3.7] [-0.4 , 5.0] [2.0 , 8.6]
 Imports (goods and services) 4.3 [-1.1 , 0.3] [-1.7 , 3.7] [1.7 , 7.7]
June 2012
  2011 2012 2013
HICP 2.7 [2.3 , 2.5] [1.0 , 2.2 ]
Real GDP 1.5 [-0.5 , 0.3] [0.0 , 2.0]
 Private consumption 0.2 [-0.7 , -0.1] [-0.4 , 1.4]
 Government consumption -0.3 [-0.7 , 0.3] [-0.7 , 0.7]
 Gross fixed capital formation 1.6 [-3.2 , -1.0] [-0.8 , 3.8]
 Exports (goods and services) 6.3 [1.2 , 5.0] [1.1 , 8.9]
 Imports (goods and services) 4.1 [-0.7 , 2.9] [0.9 , 7.9]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2011
  2010 2011 2012
HICP 1.6 [2.5 , 2.7] [1.2 , 2.2]
Real GDP 1.7 [1.4 , 1.8] [0.4 , 2.2]
 Private consumption 0.8 [0.3 , 0.7] [0.0 , 1.6]
 Government consumption 0.5 [-0.2 , 0.8] [-0.7 , 0.5]
 Gross fixed capital formation -0.8 [2.2 , 3.6] [0.8 , 5.4]
 Exports (goods and services) 11.0 [5.6 , 8.4] [2.3 , 9.7]
 Imports (goods and services) 9.3 [4.7 , 7.3] [2.0 , 9.2]
March 2011
  2010 2011 2012
HICP 1.6 [2.0 , 2.6] [1.0 , 2.4]
Real GDP 1.7 [1.3 , 2.1] [0.8 , 2.8]
 Private consumption 0.7 [0.6 , 1.4] [0.4 , 2.2]
 Government consumption 0.8 [-0.3 , 0.5] [-0.5 , 0.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation -0.8 [0.4 , 3.4] [0.7 , 5.5]
 Exports (goods and services) 10.9 [4.9 , 9.5] [3.0 , 9.2]
 Imports (goods and services) 9.0 [3.5 , 7.7] [2.8 , 8.4]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2011
  2010 2011 2012 2013
HICP 1.6 [2.6 , 2.8] [1.5 , 2.5] [0.8 , 2.2]
Real GDP 1.8 [1.5 , 1.7] [-0.4 , 1.0] [0.3 , 2.3]
 Private consumption 0.8 [0.3 , 0.5] [-0.4 , 0.6] [0.0 , 1.8]
 Government consumption 0.5 [-0.3 , 0.5] [-0.5 , 0.7] [-0.3 , 1.3]
 Gross fixed capital formation -0.6 [1.6 , 2.4] [-1.6 , 1.8] [-0.5 , 4.3]
 Exports (goods and services) 10.8 [5.4 , 7.2] [0.3 , 6.1] [2.1 , 8.9]
 Imports (goods and services) 9.2 [4.0 , 5.4] [-0.5 , 5.1] [1.7 , 8.1]
June 2011
  2010 2011 2012
HICP 1.6 [2.5 , 2.7] [1.1 , 2.3]
Real GDP 1.7 [1.5 , 2.3] [0.6 , 2.8]
 Private consumption 0.8 [0.6 , 1.2] [0.4 , 2.2]
 Government consumption 0.6 [-0.4 , 0.6] [-0.5 , 0.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation -0.9 [2.0 , 4.2] [1.1 , 5.9]
 Exports (goods and services) 11.1 [5.8 , 9.6] [2.6 , 10.6]
 Imports (goods and services) 9.3 [4.3 , 7.9] [2.6 , 10.0]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area

September 2010
  2009 2010 2011
HICP 0.3 [1.5 , 1.7] [1.2 , 2.2]
Real GDP -4.0 [1.4 , 1.8] [0.5 , 2.3]
 Private consumption -1.1 [0.0 , 0.4] [-0.1 , 1.5]
 Government consumption 2.6 [0.3 , 1.3] [-0.1 , 1.1]
 Gross fixed capital formation -11.0 [-2.3 , -0.7] [-1.6 , 3.0]
 Exports (goods and services) -13.2 [7.4 , 10.0] [2.9 , 9.3]
 Imports (goods and services) -11.8 [5.8 , 8.2] [1.6 , 7.8]
March 2010
  2009 2010 2011
HICP [0.3] [0.8 , 1.6] [0.9 , 2.1]
Real GDP [-4.0] [0.4 , 1.2] [0.5 , 2.5]
 Private consumption [-1.0] [-0.3 , 0.5] [0.2 , 2.0]
 Government consumption [2.5] [0.1 , 1.1] [0.2 , 1.6]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-10.8] [-3.1 , -0.5] [-1.1 , 2.9]
 Exports (goods and services) [-13.0] [3.2 , 7.6] [1.4 , 7.8]
 Imports (goods and services) [-11.6] [1.9 , 5.7] [0.7 , 6.5]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2010
  2009 2010 2011 2012
HICP [0.3] [1.5 , 1.7] [1.3 , 2.3] [0.7 , 2.3]
Real GDP [-4.1] [1.6 , 1.8] [0.7 , 2.1] [0.6 , 2.8]
 Private consumption [-1.1] [0.6 , 0.8] [0.4 , 1.4] [0.5 , 2.3]
 Government consumption [2.4] [0.5 , 1.3] [-0.8 , 0.6] [-0.4 , 1.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-11.3] [-1.4 , -0.6] [-0.5 , 3.1] [0.1 , 5.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [-13.1] [9.9 , 11.7] [3.7 , 8.7] [2.5 , 8.7]
 Imports (goods and services) [-11.8] [8.2 , 9.8] [2.6 , 7.6] [2.3 , 8.1]
June 2010
  2009 2010 2011
HICP [0.3] [1.4 , 1.6] [1.0 , 2.2]
Real GDP [-4.1] [0.7 , 1.3] [0.2 , 2.2]
 Private consumption [-1.2] [-0.2 , 0.4] [-0.2 , 1.6]
 Government consumption [2.6] [0.3 , 1.3] [-0.3 , 1.1]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-10.8] [-3.4 , -1.2] [-2.1 , 2.7]
 Exports (goods and services) [-13.2] [5.5 , 9.1] [1.1 , 7.9]
 Imports (goods and services) [-12.0] [3.8 , 7.0] [0.4 , 6.8]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2009
  2008 2009 2010
HICP [3.3] [0.2 , 0.6] [0.8 , 1.6]
Real GDP [0.6] [-4.4 , -3.8] [-0.5 , 0.9]
 Private consumption [0.3] [-1.3 , -0.5] [-0.8 , 0.6]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.4 , 2.0] [1.0 , 1.8]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.2] [-12.1 , -9.9] [-5.2 , -1.2]
 Exports (goods and services) [0.9] [-16.2 , -13.6] [-0.6 , 2.4]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.0] [-13.6 , -11.0] [-2.3 , 2.1]
March 2009
  2008 2009 2010
HICP [3.3] [0.1 , 0.7] [0.6 , 1.4]
Real GDP [0.8] [-3.2 , -2.2] [-0.7 , 0.7]
 Private consumption [0.5] [-1.2 , -0.2] [-0.4 , 1.0]
 Government consumption [2.1] [1.3 , 2.1] [1.1 , 1.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation [0.3] [-8.6- -5.8] [-4.3 , -0.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [1.8] [-9.7 , -6.9] [-0.9 , 1.9]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.8] [-8.0 , -5.0] [-1.6 , 2.6]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2009
  2008 2009 2010 2011
HICP [3.3] [0.3 , 0.3] [0.9 , 1.7] [0.8 , 2.0]
Real GDP [0.5] [-4.1 , -3.9] [0.1 , 1.5] [0.2 , 2.2]
 Private consumption [0.4] [-1.2 , -1.0] [-0.2 , 0.8] [0.2 , 1.8]
 Government consumption [2.0] [2.2 , 3.0] [0.5 , 1.7] [0.4 , 1.8
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.6] [-11.3- -10.5] [-3.1 , -0.1] [-1.7 , 2.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [0.8] [-14.5 , -12.5] [0.6 , 5.6] [0.7 , 6.5]
 Imports (goods and services) [0.9] [-12.6 , -11.0] [0.4 , 4.6] [0.8 , 5.4]
June 2009
  2008 2009 2010
HICP [3.3] [0.1 , 0.5] [0.6 , 1.4]
Real GDP [0.6] [-5.1 , -4.1] [-1.0 , 0.4]
 Private consumption [0.3] [-1.3 , -0.5] [-1.1 , 0.3]
 Government consumption [2.0] [1.4 , 2.0] [0.9 , 1.7]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.3] [-12.3- -10.1] [-6.1 , -2.1]
 Exports (goods and services) [0.8] [-16.6 , -14.0] [-2.0 , 1.0]
 Imports (goods and services) [0.9] [-13.8 , -11.2] [-3.0 , 1.4]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2008
  2007 2008 2009
HICP [2.1] [3.4 , 3.6] [2.3 , 2.9]
Real GDP [2.6] [1.1 , 1.7] [0.6 , 1.8]
 Private consumption [1.6] [0.5 , 0.9] [0.6 , 1.6]
 Government consumption [2.3] [1.5 , 1.9] [1.3 , 1.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.4] [0.9 , 2.3] [-0.7 , 2.1]
 Exports (goods and services) [6.1] [2.9 , 4.5] [2.4 , 4.6]
 Imports (goods and services) [5.4] [2.4 , 3.8] [2.0 , 5.0]
March 2008
  2007 2008 2009
HICP [2.1] [2.6 , 3.2] [1.5 , 2.7]
Real GDP [2.6] [1.3 , 2.1] [1.3 , 2.3]
 Private consumption [1.6] [1.1 , 1.7] [1.0 , 2.4]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.6] [0.5 , 3.1] [0.2 , 3.4]
 Exports (goods and services) [5.7] [2.6 , 5.6] [3.1 , 6.3]
 Imports (goods and services) [4.9] [2.0 , 5.4] [2.9 , 6.3]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2008
  2007 2008 2009 2010
HICP [2.1] [3.2 , 3.4] [1.1 , 1.7 ] [1.5 , 2.1 ]
Real GDP [2.6] [0.8 , 1.2 ] [-1.0 , 0.0] [0.5 , 1.5 ]
 Private consumption [1.6] [0.1 , 0.5] [-0.3 , 0.7 ] [0.6 , 1.8 ]
 Government consumption [2.3] [1.9 , 2.3] [1.3 , 1.9 ] [1.3 , 1.9 ]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.2] [0.2 , 1.2 ] [-6.0 , -3.0 ] [-2.4 , 1.0 ]
 Exports (goods and services) [5.9] [2.4 , 3.4 ] [-1.4 , 1.0 ] [2.3 , 4.9 ]
 Imports (goods and services) [5.4] [2.0 , 3.0 ] [-1.9 , 1.1 ] [1.4 , 5.2 ]
June 2008
  2007 2008 2009
HICP [2.1] [3.2 , 3.6] [1.8 , 3.0]
Real GDP [2.7] [1.5 , 2.1] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Private consumption [1.6] [1.1 , 1.5] [0.9 , 2.1]
 Government consumption [2.1] [1.3 , 2.3] [1.2 , 2.2]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.7] [1.3 , 3.5] [-0.4 , 2.8]
 Exports (goods and services) [5.7] [3.5 , 6.3] [2.4 , 5.6]
 Imports (goods and services) [5.2] [2.9 , 6.3] [2.2 , 5.6]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2007
  2006 2007 2008
HICP [2.2] [1.9 , 2.1] [1.5 , 2.5]
Real GDP [2.9] [2.2 , 2.8] [1.8 , 2.8]
 Private consumption [1.9] [1.4 , 1.8] [1.5 , 2.7]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.3 , 2.3] [1.2 , 2.2]
 Gross fixed capital formation [5.2] [3.6 , 5.2] [1.4 , 4.6]
 Exports (goods and services) [8.2] [4.6 , 7.4] [3.9 , 7.1]
 Imports (goods and services) [7.9] [3.7 , 6.7] [3.6 , 7.0]
March 2007
  2006 2007 2008
HICP [2.2] [1.5 , 2.1] [1.4 , 2.6]
Real GDP [2.8] [2.1 , 2.9] [1.9 , 2.9]
 Private consumption [2.0] [1.8 , 2.4] [1.6 , 3.0]
 Government consumption [2.3] [0.8 , 1.8] [1.0 , 2.0]
Gross fixed capital formation [4.9] [2.4 , 5.0] [1.9 , 5.1]
 Exports (goods and services) [8.3] [4.7 , 7.7] [4.1 , 7.3]
 Imports (goods and services) [7.9] [3.7 , 7.1] [4.2 , 7.6]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2007
  2006 2007 2008 2009
HICP [2.2] [2.0 , 2.2] [2.0 , 3.0] [1.2 , 2.4]
Real GDP [2.9] [2.4 , 2.8] [1.5 , 2.5] [1.6 , 2.6]
 Private consumption [1.9] [1.4 , 1.8] [1.4 , 2.4] [1.2 , 2.8]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.4 , 2.6] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [5.2] [4.0 , 5.0] [0.9 , 3.9] [0.7 , 3.9]
 Exports (goods and services) [8.0] [4.6 , 7.4] [3.5 , 6.7] [3.9 , 7.1]
 Imports (goods and services) [7.6] [4.0 , 6.6] [3.3 , 6.7] [3.6 , 7.0]
June 2007
  2006 2007 2008
HICP [2.2] [1.8 , 2.2] [1.4 , 2.6]
Real GDP [2.9] [2.3 , 2.9] [1.8 , 2.8]
 Private consumption [1.8] [1.7 , 2.1] [1.6 , 2.8]
 Government consumption [2.0] [1.0 , 2.0] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [5.1] [3.8 , 6.0] [1.9 , 5.1]
 Exports (goods and services) [8.5] [4.8 , 7.6] [4.0 , 7.2]
 Imports (goods and services) [8.0] [4.6 , 8.0] [3.9 , 7.3]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2006
  2005 2006 2007
HICP [2.2] [2.3 , 2.5] [1.9 , 2.9]
Real GDP [1.5] [2.2 , 2.8] [1.6 , 2.6]
 Private consumption [1.5] [1.8 , 2.2] [0.9 , 2.1]
 Government consumption [1.3] [1.0 , 2.0] [0.7 , 1.7]
 Gross fixed capital formation [2.7] [3.0 , 4.6] [2.1 , 5.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [4.2] [6.0 , 8.8] [3.4 , 6.6]
 Imports (goods and services) [5.2] [5.7 , 8.7] [3.1 , 6.5]
March 2006   2005 2006 2007 HICP [2.2] [1.9 , 2.5] [1.6 , 2.8] Real GDP [1.4] [1.7 , 2.5] [1.5 , 2.5]  Private consumption [1.4] [1.1 , 1.7] [0.6 , 2.0]  Government consumption [1.2] [1.4 , 2.4] [0.8 , 1.8]  Gross fixed capital formation [2.2] [2.4 , 5.0] [1.8 , 5.0]  Exports (goods and services) [3.8] [4.2 , 7.2] [3.8 , 7.0]  Imports (goods and services) [4.6] [4.2 , 7.6] [3.4 , 6.8]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2006
  2005 2006 2007 2008
HICP [2.2] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.5 , 2.5] [1.3 , 2.5]
Real GDP [1.5] [2.5 , 2.9] [1.7 , 2.7] [1.8 , 2.8]
 Private consumption [1.4] [1.8 , 2.2] [1.3 , 2.3] [1.2 , 2.8]
 Government consumption [1.3] [1.4 , 2.6] [0.5 , 1.5] [0.8 , 1.8]
 Gross fixed capital formation [2.7] [4.4 , 5.4] [2.5 , 5.5] [1.8 , 5.0]
 Exports (goods and services) [4.6] [6.6 , 9.4] [4.2 , 7.4] [4.2 , 7.4]
 Imports (goods and services) [5.5] [6.7 , 9.3] [3.9 , 7.3] [4.0 , 7.4]
June 2006
  2005 2006 2007
HICP [2.2] [2.1 , 2.5] [1.6 , 2.8]
Real GDP [1.4] [1.8 , 2.4] [1.3 , 2.3]
 Private consumption [1.4] [1.4 , 1.8] [0.5 , 1.7]
 Government consumption [1.4] [1.3 , 2.3] [0.7 , 1.7]
 Gross fixed capital formation [2.5] [2.3 , 4.5] [1.6 , 4.8]
 Exports (goods and services) [4.1] [5.2 , 8.0] [3.3 , 6.5]
 Imports (goods and services) [5.0] [5.3 , 8.7] [2.8 , 6.2]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2005
  2004 2005 2006
HICP [2.1] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.4 , 2.4]
Real GDP [1.8] [1.0 , 1.6] [1.3 , 2.3]
 Private consumption [1.3] [1.1 , 1.5] [0.7 , 1.9]
 Government consumption [1.4] [0.6 , 1.6] [1.1 , 2.1]
 Gross fixed capital formation [1.4] [0.4 , 2.0] [1.3 , 4.5]
 Exports (goods and services) [5.9] [2.4 , 5.2] [4.6 , 7.8]
 Imports (goods and services) [6.1] [2.2 , 5.2] [4.3 , 7.7]
March 2005
  2004 2005 2006
HICP [2.1] [1.6 , 2.2] [1.0 , 2.2]
Real GDP [1.8] [1.2 , 2.0] [1.6 , 2.6]
 Private consumption [1.1] [1.2 , 1.8] [1.2 , 2.6]
 Government consumption [1.5] [0.7 , 1.7] [0.6 , 1.6]
 Gross fixed capital formation [1.7] [1.6 , 4.2] [2.1 , 5.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [6.1] [4.0 , 7.0] [4.9 , 8.1]
 Imports (goods and services) [6.5] [4.7 , 8.1] [4.9 , 8.3]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2005
  2004 2005 2006 2007
HICP [2.1] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.6 , 2.6] [1.4 , 2.6]
Real GDP [1.8] [1.2 , 1.6] [1.4 , 2.4] [1.4 , 2.4]
 Private consumption [1.4] [1.1 , 1.5] [0.9 , 1.9] [0.6 , 2.2]
 Government consumption [1.1] [0.4 , 1.6] [1.1 , 2.1] [0.5 , 1.5]
 Gross fixed capital formation [1.6] [1.4 , 2.4] [1.6 , 4.6] [1.5 , 4.7]
 Exports (goods and services) [6.1] [2.6 , 5.4] [4.3 , 7.5] [4.1 , 7.3]
 Imports (goods and services) [6.3] [3.4 , 6.0] [4.2 , 7.6] [3.5 , 6.9]
June 2005
  2004 2005 2006
HICP [2.1] [1.8 , 2.2] [0.9 , 2.1]
Real GDP [1.8] [1.1 , 1.7] [1.5 , 2.5]
 Private consumption [1.1] [1.2 , 1.6] [1.0 , 2.2]
 Government consumption [1.3] [0.4 , 1.4] [1.1 , 2.1]
 Gross fixed capital formation [1.7] [0.5 , 2.7] [1.9 , 5.1]
 Exports (goods and services) [6.1] [3.1 , 5.9] [4.5 , 7.7]
 Imports (goods and services) [6.1] [2.6 , 6.0] [4.4 , 7.8]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2004
  2003 2004 2005
HICP [2.1] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.3 , 2.3]
Real GDP [0.5] [1.6 , 2.2] [1.8 , 2.8]
 Private consumption [1.0] [1.2 , 1.6] [1.5 , 2.7]
 Government consumption [1.9] [0.7 , 1.7] [0.5 , 1.5]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.4] [0.8 , 2.4] [2.0 , 5.2]
 Exports (goods and services) [0.3] [4.8 , 7.6] [5.6 , 8.8]
 Imports (goods and services) [2.1] [3.7 , 6.7] [5.3 , 8.7]
March 2004
  2003 2004 2005
HICP [2.1] [1.4 , 2.0] [0.9 , 2.1]
Real GDP [0.4] [1.1 , 1.9] [1.9 , 2.9]
 Private consumption [1.1] [1.0 , 1.6] [1.6 , 3.0]
 Government consumption [1.7] [0.7 , 1.7] [0.4 , 1.4]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-1.4] [0.7 , 3.3] [2.3 , 5.5]
 Exports (goods and services) [0.2] [2.9 , 5.9] [4.8 , 8.0]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.6] [3.1 , 6.5] [5.2 , 8.6]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2004
  2003 2004 2005 2006
HICP [2.1] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.5 , 2.5] [1.0 , 2.2]
Real GDP [0.5] [1.6 , 2.0] [1.4 , 2.4] [1.7 , 2.7]
 Private consumption [1.1] [0.9 , 1.3] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.2 , 2.8]
 Government consumption [1.6] [0.9 , 2.1] [0.3 , 1.3] [0.7 , 1.7]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.6] [1.2 , 2.2] [1.7 , 4.7] [2.1 , 5.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [0.2] [4.5 , 7.3] [4.6 , 7.8] [4.8 , 8.0]
 Imports (goods and services) [2.0] [5.0 , 7.6] [4.8 , 8.2] [4.8 , 8.2]
June 2004
  2003 2004 2005
HICP [2.1] [1.9 , 2.3] [1.1 , 2.3]
Real GDP [0.5] [1.4 , 2.0] [1.7 , 2.7]
 Private consumption [1.0] [1.0 , 1.4] [1.4 , 2.6]
 Government consumption [2.0] [0.9 , 1.9] [0.4 , 1.4]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.8] [0.7 , 2.9] [1.9 , 5.1]
 Exports (goods and services) [-0.2] [3.2 , 6.0] [5.0 , 8.2]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.7] [2.8 , 6.2] [5.0 , 8.4]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2003
  2002 2003 2004
HICP [2.3] [2.0 , 2.2] [1.0 , 2.0]
Real GDP [0.9] [0.1 , 0.7] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Private consumption [0.6] [0.9 , 1.3] [1.0 , 2.2]
 Government consumption [2.8] [1.1 , 2.1] [0.4 , 1.4]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-2.7] [-1.5 , 0.1] [0.8 , 4.0]
 Exports (goods and services) [1.5] [-1.8 , 1.0] [2.6 , 5.8]
 Imports (goods and services) [-0.2] [0.5 , 3.5] [3.3 , 6.7]
March 2003
  2002 2003 2004
HICP [2.2] [1.7 , 2.3] [0.9 , 2.1]
Real GDP [0.8] [0.6 , 1.4] [1.5 , 2.5]
 Private consumption [0.7] [0.9 , 1.5] [1.2 , 2.6]
 Government consumption [2.3] [0.8 , 1.8] [0.8 , 1.8]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-2.6] [-0.9 , 1.7] [0.7 , 3.9]
 Exports (goods and services) [1.4] [2.4 , 5.4] [3.4 , 6.6]
 Imports (goods and services) [-0.1] [2.9 , 6.3] [4.1 , 7.5]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2003
  2002 2003 2004 2005
HICP [2.3] [2.0 , 2.2] [1.3 , 2.3] [1.0 , 2.2]
Real GDP [0.9] [0.2 , 0.6] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.9 , 2.9]
 Private consumption [0.5] [1.0 , 1.4] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.4 , 3.0]
 Government consumption [2.8] [0.9 , 2.1] [0.6 , 1.6] [0.3 , 1.3]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-2.8] [-1.7 , -0.7] [0.2 , 3.2] [2.3 , 5.5]
 Exports (goods and services) [1.7] [-1.6 , 1.2] [2.8 , 6.0] [5.0 , 8.2]
 Imports (goods and services) [0.0] [0.1 , 2.7] [2.9 , 6.3] [5.1 , 8.5]
June 2003
  2002 2003 2004
HICP [2.3] [1.8 , 2.2] [0.7 , 1.9]
Real GDP [0.9] [0.4 , 1.0] [1.1 , 2.1]
 Private consumption [0.6] [1.2 , 1.6] [1.1 , 2.4]
 Government consumption [2.8] [0.7 , 1.6] [0.5 , 1.5]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-2.7] [-1.3 , 0.9] [0.5 , 3.7]
 Exports (goods and services) [1.2] [0.5 , 3.4] [3.0 , 6.2]
 Imports (goods and services) [-0.5] [1.6 , 5.0] [3.5 , 6.9]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2002
  2001 2002 2003
HICP [2.5] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.3 , 2.3]
Real GDP [1.5] [0.5 , 1.1] [1.6 , 2.6]
 Private consumption [1.9] [0.5 , 0.9] [1.3 , 2.5]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.2 , 2.2] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.5] [-2.6 , -1.0] [0.4 , 3.6]
 Exports (goods and services) [2.8] [-1.0 , 1.8] [3.5 , 6.7]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.2] [-2.4 , 0.6] [4.0 , 7.4]
March 2002
  2001 2002 2003
HICP [2.7] [1.5 , 2.1] [1.0 , 2.2]
Real GDP [1.5] [0.6 , 1.4] [2.0 , 3.0]
 Private consumption [1.9] [1.2 , 1.8] [1.7 , 3.1]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.0 , 2.0] [0.7 , 1.7]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.2] [-0.9 , 1.7] [2.0 , 5.2]
 Exports (goods and services) [3.2] [-0.8 , 2.2] [4.0 , 7.2]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.8] [-0.4 , 3.0] [4.0 , 7.4]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2002
  2001 2002 2003 2004
HICP [2.5] [2.1 , 2.3] [1.3 , 2.3] [1.0 , 2.2]
Real GDP [1.5] [0.6 , 1.0] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.9 , 2.9]
 Private consumption [1.9] [0.4 , 0.8] [1.1 , 2.1] [1.5 , 3.1]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.3 , 2.5] [0.7 , 1.7] [0.8 , 1.8]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.4] [-2.9 , -1.9] [-0.6 , 2.4] [1.4 , 4.6]
 Exports (goods and services) [3.0] [-0.9 , 1.9] [2.4 , 5.6] [3.9 , 7.1]
 Imports (goods and services) [1.5] [-2.4 , 0.2] [2.6 , 6.0] [4.1 , 7.5]
June 2002
  2001 2002 2003
HICP [2.5] [2.1 , 2.5] [1.3 , 2.5]
Real GDP [1.5] [0.9 , 1.5] [2.1 , 3.1]
 Private consumption [1.8] [1.0 , 1.4] [1.7 , 3.0]
 Government consumption [2.2] [1.0 , 1.9] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [-0.3] [-1.2 , 1.0] [1.0 , 4.2]
 Exports (goods and services) [2.7] [0.0 , 2.9] [4.5 , 7.7]
 Imports (goods and services) [0.9] [-1.1 , 2.3] [4.4 , 7.8]

ECB staff macroeconomic projections

September 2001
  2000 2001 2002
HICP [2.4] [2.6 , 2.8] [1.3 , 2.3]
Real GDP [3.4] [1.3 , 1.9] [1.5 , 2.5]
 Private consumption [2.6] [1.4 , 1.8] [1.5 , 2.7]
 Government consumption [1.9] [1.2 , 2.2] [1.0 , 2.0]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.6] [0.5 , 2.1] [1.7 , 4.9]
 Exports (goods and services) [12.0] [3.0 , 5.8] [2.3 , 5.5]
 Imports (goods and services) [10.9] [2.4 , 5.4] [3.0 , 6.4]
March 2001
  2000 2001 2002
HICP [2.4] [1.7 , 2.3] [1.1 , 2.3]
Real GDP [3.4] [2.5 , 3.3] [2.3 , 3.3]
 Private consumption [2.6] [2.6 , 3.2] [2.0 , 3.4]
 Government consumption [1.6] [0.9 , 1.9] [0.9 , 1.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.7] [2.9 , 5.5] [2.7 , 5.9]
 Exports (goods and services) [11.8] [6.5 , 9.5] [4.9 , 8.1]
 Imports (goods and services) [10.8] [6.7 , 10.1] [5.1 , 8.5]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2001
  2000 2001 2002 2003
HICP [2.4] [2.6 , 2.8] [1.1 , 2.1] [0.9 , 2.1]
Real GDP [3.4] [1.3 , 1.7] [0.7 , 1.7] [2.0 , 3.0]
 Private consumption [2.6] [1.7 , 2.1] [1.2 , 2.2] [1.5 , 3.1]
 Government consumption [1.8] [1.1 , 2.3] [0.8 , 1.8] [0.8 , 1.8]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.5] [-0.6 , 0.4] [-1.0 , 2.0] [1.2 , 4.4]
 Exports (goods and services) [12.4] [2.4 , 5.2] [0.3 , 3.5] [4.0 , 7.2]
 Imports (goods and services) [10.9] [1.1 , 3.7] [0.6 , 4.0] [3.7 , 7.1]
June 2001
  2000 2001 2002
HICP [2.4] [2.3 , 2.7] [1.2 , 2.4]
Real GDP [3.4] [2.2 , 2.8] [2.1 , 3.1]
 Private consumption [2.7] [2.2 , 2.6] [2.0 , 3.3]
 Government consumption [2.0] [1.2 , 2.1] [0.9 , 1.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation [4.6] [2.3 , 4.5] [2.2 , 5.4]
 Exports (goods and services) [12.2] [5.0 , 7.9] [4.1 , 7.3]
 Imports (goods and services) [10.9] [4.9 , 8.3] [4.3 , 7.7]

Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections

December 2000
  1999 2000 2001 2002
HICP [1.1] [2.3 , 2.5] [1.8 , 2.8] [1.3 , 2.5]
Real GDP [2.5] [3.2 , 3.6] [2.6 , 3.6] [2.5 , 3.5]
 Private consumption [2.8] [2.3 , 2.7] [2.2 , 3.2] [1.7 , 3.3]
 Government consumption [1.4] [0.8 , 2.0] [0.6 , 1.6] [0.9 , 1.9]
 Gross fixed capital formation [5.3] [4.7 , 5.7] [3.3 , 6.3] [3.1 , 6.3]
 Exports (goods and services) [4.6] [9.8 , 12.6] [6.5 , 9.7] [5.6 , 8.8]
 Imports (goods and services) [6.2] [8.8 , 11.4] [6.0 , 9.4] [5.3 , 8.7]