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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

March 2026
At a glance

Inflation outlook

The war in the Middle East has led to spikes in oil and gas prices which will push up inflation. Assuming energy prices come back down in line with market expectations as of 11 March, inflation should return to target in 2027-28, but the outlook is surrounded by high uncertainty.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The war also implies a weaker growth outlook for this year as higher inflation erodes consumers’ purchasing power, and as uncertainty and likely lower confidence dent domestic and foreign demand. Growth is expected to pick up again in 2027 and 2028.

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Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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