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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

June 2021

At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation is expected to spike at 1.9% in 2021, reflecting temporary factors, before returning to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2022 and 2023. Non-energy inflation should strengthen as the economy recovers, but its impact on overall inflation is compensated by declining energy inflation.

Gross domestic product outlook

A significant economic rebound is projected in 2021 reflecting the expected re-opening of the economy, strengthened policy support and the ongoing global recovery. Real GDP is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2021, by 4.7% in 2022 and by 2.1% in 2023.


Full report

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically affected economic activity. Containment measures and elevated uncertainty are expected to continue to weigh on supply and demand. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is supported by substantial measures taken by central banks and governments.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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