Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

June 2019
June 2019
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections
Inflation outlook

The projections foresee annual HICP inflation at 1.3% in 2019, 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% in 2021. Compared with the March 2019 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2019 and revised down by 0.1 percentage points for 2020.

Gross domestic product outlook

The projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.2% in 2019, 1.4% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021. Compared with the March 2019 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points for 2019 and has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2020 and by 0.1 percentage points for 2021.

6 June 2019
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2019
7 March 2019
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2019
13 December 2018
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2018
13 September 2018
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2018
14 June 2018
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2018
8 March 2018
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2018
14 December 2017
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2017
7 September 2017
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2017
8 June 2017
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2017
9 March 2017
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2017
8 December 2016
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2016
8 September 2016
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2016
2 June 2016
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area - June 2016
10 March 2016
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area - March 2016
3 December 2015
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 September 2015
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 June 2015
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
5 March 2015
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2015
4 December 2014
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
4 September 2014
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
5 June 2014
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 March 2014
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
5 December 2013
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
5 September 2013
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 June 2013
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
7 March 2013
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 December 2012
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 September 2012
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 June 2012
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
8 March 2012
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
8 December 2011
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
8 September 2011
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
9 June 2011
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 March 2011
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
2 December 2010
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
2 September 2010
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
10 June 2010
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
4 March 2010
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 December 2009
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 September 2009
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
4 June 2009
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
5 March 2009
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
4 December 2008
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
4 September 2008
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
5 June 2008
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 March 2008
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 December 2007
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 September 2007
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
6 June 2007
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
8 March 2007
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
7 December 2006
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
31 August 2006
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
8 June 2006
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
2 March 2006
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
1 December 2005
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
1 September 2005
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
2 June 2005
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 March 2005
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
2 December 2004
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
2 September 2004
ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
3 June 2004
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
About the projections

Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections provide an input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability. These projections are neither endorsed by the Governing Council nor do they necessarily reflect the views of the Governing Council on the outlook for the euro area. Information on the procedures and techniques used is given in A guide to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises, ECB, July 2016.

The projections are published four times a year:

  • March and September projections are produced by ECB staff
  • June and December projections are produced jointly by Eurosystem and ECB staff

The jointly produced projections for June and December also include information on the outlook for individual euro area countries – this is published two weeks after the euro area projections for those months.

The period of time covered by these projections typically includes the current year and the following two years – with the exception that, for December projections, this is extended to include the current year and the following three years.

Other ESCB projections

Other projections by the national central banks of the ESCB

The national central banks (NCBs) of the ESCB prepare macroeconomic projections for their own country. These are not necessarily identical to those which underlie the Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.

Austria
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Belgium
National Bank of Belgium
Bulgaria
Българска народна банка
Croatia
Hrvatska narodna banka
Cyprus
Central Bank of Cyprus
Czech Republic
Česká národní banka
Estonia
Eesti Pank
Finland
Suomen Pankki
France
Banque de France
Germany
Deutsche Bundesbank
Hungary
Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Ireland
Central Bank of Ireland
Italy
Banca d’Italia
Latvia
Latvijas Banka
Lithuania
Lietuvos bankas
Malta
Central Bank of Malta
Netherland
De Nederlandsche Bank
Poland
Narodowy Bank Polski
Portugal
Banco de Portugal
Romania
Banca Naţională a României
Slovakia
Národná banka Slovenska
Slovenia
Banka Slovenije
Spain
Banco de España
Sweden
Sveriges Riksbank