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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

March 2021

At a glance

Inflation outlook

HICP inflation is expected to rebound sharply from 0.3% in 2020 to 1.5% in 2021, peaking at 2.0% in the last quarter of 2021, before dropping to 1.2% in 2022 and then increasing to 1.4% in 2023.

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Gross domestic product outlook

Real GDP is expected to stand 3.3% above its 2019 pre-crisis level by the end of 2023.

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Full report

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically affected economic activity. Containment measures and elevated uncertainty are expected to continue to weigh on supply and demand. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is supported by substantial measures taken by central banks and governments.

Read the report

The impact of the American Rescue Plan on the euro area

The US fiscal stimulus package is estimated to positively impact euro area GDP by about 0.3% over the projection horizon, with a peak impact on growth rates of around 0.2 percentage points in 2022. The package will have a more moderate impact on HICP inflation over the projection horizon.

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Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Projections are made four years into the future based on what was known at the time.

All our macroeconomic projection ranges

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