Macroeconomic projections
Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.
Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.
They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).
HICP inflation is expected to rebound from 0.2% in 2020 to 1.0% in 2021 and then gradually increase further to 1.1% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023.
Real GDP is projected to rebound from -7.3% in 2020 to 3.9% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. In 2023, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1% and is expected to stand 2½% above its 2019 pre-crisis level.
- 10 December 2020
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 10 September 2020
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 4 June 2020
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 12 March 2020
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2020EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 12 December 2019
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2019EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 12 September 2019
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2019EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 6 June 2019
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2019EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 7 March 2019
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2019EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 13 December 2018
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 13 September 2018
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 14 June 2018
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 8 March 2018
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2018EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 14 December 2017
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2017EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 7 September 2017
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2017EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 8 June 2017
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, June 2017EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 9 March 2017
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2017EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 8 December 2016
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, December 2016EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 8 September 2016
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, September 2016EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 2 June 2016
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area - June 2016EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 10 March 2016
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area - March 2016EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 3 December 2015
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 3 September 2015
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 3 June 2015
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 5 March 2015
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2015EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 4 December 2014
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 4 September 2014
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 5 June 2014
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 6 March 2014
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 5 December 2013
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 5 September 2013
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 6 June 2013
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 7 March 2013
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 December 2012
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 September 2012
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 June 2012
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 8 March 2012
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 8 December 2011
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 8 September 2011
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 9 June 2011
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 3 March 2011
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 2 December 2010
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 2 September 2010
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 10 June 2010
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 4 March 2010
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 3 December 2009
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 3 September 2009
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 4 June 2009
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 5 March 2009
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 4 December 2008
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 4 September 2008
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 5 June 2008
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 March 2008
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 December 2007
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 September 2007
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 6 June 2007
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 8 March 2007
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (20) +
- 7 December 2006
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 31 August 2006
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 8 June 2006
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 2 March 2006
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 1 December 2005
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 1 September 2005
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (19) +
- 2 June 2005
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 3 March 2005
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 2 December 2004
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 2 September 2004
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (18) +
- 3 June 2004
- Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro areaEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (19) +
Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections provide an input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability. These projections are neither endorsed by the Governing Council nor do they necessarily reflect the views of the Governing Council on the outlook for the euro area. Information on the procedures and techniques used is given in A guide to the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises, ECB, July 2016.
The projections are published four times a year:
- March and September projections are produced by ECB staff
- June and December projections are produced jointly by Eurosystem and ECB staff
The jointly produced projections for June and December also include information on the outlook for individual euro area countries – this is published two weeks after the euro area projections for those months.
The period of time covered by these projections typically includes the current year and the following two years – with the exception that, for December projections, this is extended to include the current year and the following three years.
Other projections by the national central banks of the ESCB
The national central banks (NCBs) of the ESCB prepare macroeconomic projections for their own country. These are not necessarily identical to those which underlie the Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.
- Austria
- Oesterreichische Nationalbank
- Belgium
- National Bank of Belgium
- Bulgaria
- Българска народна банка
- Croatia
- Hrvatska narodna banka
- Cyprus
- Central Bank of Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Česká národní banka
- Estonia
- Eesti Pank
- Finland
- Suomen Pankki
- France
- Banque de France
- Germany
- Deutsche Bundesbank
- Hungary
- Magyar Nemzeti Bank
- Ireland
- Central Bank of Ireland
- Italy
- Banca d’Italia
- Latvia
- Latvijas Banka
- Lithuania
- Lietuvos bankas
- Malta
- Central Bank of Malta
- Netherland
- De Nederlandsche Bank
- Poland
- Narodowy Bank Polski
- Portugal
- Banco de Portugal
- Romania
- Banca Naţională a României
- Slovakia
- Národná banka Slovenska
- Slovenia
- Banka Slovenije
- Spain
- Banco de España
- Sweden
- Sveriges Riksbank