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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

December 2020

At a glance

Inflation outlook

HICP inflation is expected to rebound from 0.2% in 2020 to 1.0% in 2021 and then gradually increase further to 1.1% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023.

Gross domestic product outlook

Real GDP is projected to rebound from -7.3% in 2020 to 3.9% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. In 2023, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1% and is expected to stand 2½% above its 2019 pre-crisis level.


Full report

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically affected economic activity. Elevated uncertainty and worsened labour market conditions are expected to continue to weigh on supply and demand. Nevertheless, incomes should be maintained due to substantial support from central banks and governments.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Projections are made four years into the future based on what was known at the time.

All our macroeconomic projection ranges

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