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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

September 2023
At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation should continue to decline over the next couple of years as cost pressures ease and the ECB’s monetary policy measures are gradually transmitted. Headline inflation is expected to fall from 5.6% this year to 3.2% in 2024 and to 2.1% in 2025.

Gross domestic product outlook

Growth will be sluggish for the rest of 2023 in the face of tighter financing conditions and weak foreign demand. As inflation falls, household income recovers and foreign demand strengthens, the euro area economy should grow by 0.7% in 2023, by 1.0% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025.


Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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