Macroeconomic projections

Inflation will remain high in the short run but fall sharply to 3.6% by the end of 2023. Fading pressures from energy prices and other costs, together with the ECB’s monetary policy measures, should bring inflation back to the 2% inflation target by the second half of 2025.

High inflation, uncertainty and weak consumer and business confidence will slow economic growth from 3.4% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. As energy markets rebalance, supply bottlenecks resolve and foreign demand strengthens, growth will recover to 1.9 % in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.