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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

September 2022
At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation will remain high in the short term due to soaring energy and food prices, supply shortages and effects from the reopening of the economy. As these factors fade, inflation will fall from 8.1% in 2022 to 2.3% in 2024, still supported by higher wages and the weaker euro.

Gross domestic product outlook

Mounting headwinds from gas supply disruptions and surging energy prices imply that activity will stagnate in the winter. Economic growth will decline from 3.1% in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023, then recover to 2.3% in 2024 as gas markets improve and inflation and uncertainty decline.


Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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