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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

June 2022

At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation will be higher and more persistent, driven by surging energy and food prices, global supply shortages and effects from the reopening of the economy. It will average 6.8% in 2022, before declining to 3.5% in 2023 and converging towards the ECB’s inflation target in 2024.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The war in Ukraine has hit confidence, intensified supply bottlenecks and driven up commodity prices, eroding purchasing power. These headwinds are weighing on near-term growth, but this is boosted by the reopening economy. As the headwinds fade, growth is expected to strengthen.

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Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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