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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

December 2022
At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation will remain high in the short run but fall sharply to 3.6% by the end of 2023. Fading pressures from energy prices and other costs, together with the ECB’s monetary policy measures, should bring inflation back to the 2% inflation target by the second half of 2025.

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Gross domestic product outlook

High inflation, uncertainty and weak consumer and business confidence will slow economic growth from 3.4% in 2022 to 0.5% in 2023. As energy markets rebalance, supply bottlenecks resolve and foreign demand strengthens, growth will recover to 1.9 % in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

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Full report

The full report contains a detailed assessment of the outlook for the euro area economy.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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