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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

March 2022

At a glance

Inflation outlook

The war in Ukraine has led to further spikes in energy prices, which will keep headline inflation very high in the coming months. Thereafter, inflation is projected to ease back towards target. Inflation is set to average 5.1% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The growth outlook has weakened and become more uncertain as the war pushes energy prices higher, dampens confidence and affects trade. Still, the economy should keep growing as it continues to reopen. Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.7% in 2022, 2.8% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024.

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Full report

The outlook for euro area activity and inflation has become very uncertain due to the Russian war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the economy should still grow robustly in 2022 as the headwinds from the pandemic and supply bottleneck gradually fade.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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