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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

December 2021

At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation is expected to be higher for longer but should decline sharply during the course of 2022, as high energy price inflation abates and supply catches up with demand. It should stand at 1.8% in both 2023 and 2024.

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Gross domestic product outlook

Supply bottlenecks and the resurgence of the pandemic mean weaker growth in the near term but as these headwinds fade, growth will rebound again and remain strong in the medium term. Overall, the economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in 2022, by 2.9% in 2023 and by 1.6% in 2024.

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Full report

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically affected economic activity. Containment measures and elevated uncertainty are expected to continue to weigh on supply and demand. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is supported by substantial measures taken by central banks and governments.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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