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Macroeconomic projections

Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade.

Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and the wider global economy. These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability.

They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December).

September 2021

At a glance

Inflation outlook

Inflation is currently being pushed up largely by temporary factors that are expected to fade in the coming years. The staff projections foresee inflation at 2.2% in 2021, 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023.

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Gross domestic product outlook

The euro area economy is bouncing back despite continued uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply bottlenecks. Economic activity is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2021 and to remain elevated at 4.6% in 2022 before moderating to 2.1% in 2023.

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Full report

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically affected economic activity. Containment measures and elevated uncertainty are expected to continue to weigh on supply and demand. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is supported by substantial measures taken by central banks and governments.

Read the report

Current and past projections

Compare our historical projections of inflation and economic growth. Past projections for the euro area and euro area countries are available for download.

All our macroeconomic projections

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