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MONETARY POLICY
8 October 2026
Account of September monetary policy meeting
The Governing Council raised ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, citing a deterioration in the inflation outlook. This decision underscores members’ commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term.
Read the account
PODCAST
6 October 2026
Is Europe falling behind?
Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman joins host Stefania Secola to discuss Europe’s competitiveness, innovation, fragmentation and our place in a changing global economy.
Listen to the Euro Matters podcast
THE ECB BLOG
8 October 2026
Why should the ECB care about the unequal effects of climate change?
Climate change and the transition to a carbon-neutral economy do not affect everyone equally. The distributional effects of climate change and the transition can become relevant for price and financial stability.
Read The ECB Blog- 8 October 2026
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNT
- 7 October 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 7 October 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 7 October 2026
- PRESS RELEASEAnnexes
- 7 October 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 7 October 2026
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 2 October 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 2 October 2026
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
- 6 October 2026
- Contribution by Frank Elderson, Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB and Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the panel discussion “Effective Supervision and Enforcement” at the 17th FMA Supervisory Conference on “Europe’s Financial Future: Sovereignty and Resilience”
- 6 October 2026
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, MNI Connect Webcast
- 5 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2026: bridging science and practice
- 2 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)Annexes
- 2 October 2026
- Slides by Boris Vujčić, ECB Vice-President, at the Tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board in Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 1 October 2026
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Bank of England and Financial Markets Group’s "The Future of Money" conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart in London, United Kingdom
- 8 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 23 September 2026
- 6 October 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti on 1 October 2026
- 30 September 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Claude Bourbon and Marie Dancer on 16 and 28 September 2026
- 22 September 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Sébastien Ruche on 15 September 2026
- 18 September 2026
- Interview with Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa on 16 September 2026
- 8 October 2026
- Climate change and the transition to a carbon-neutral economy do not affect everyone equally. This blog explores how the distributional effects of climate change and the transition can become relevant for price and financial stability.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 6 October 2026
- AI has the potential to reshape the euro area economy. This ECB Blog post explores how AI investments are being financed, focusing on the current financing mix of the most AI-intensive sectors and the consequences for monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General
- 2 October 2026
- AI can reshape our economies. The ECB Blog explores the financing of AI investment in two posts. In this one we show that firms expect to rely overwhelmingly on their own resources to finance the transition.Details
- JEL Code
- D20 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→General
- 24 September 2026
- Speeches and interviews given by policymakers between ECB Governing Council meetings can move financial markets just as much as the monetary policy decisions themselves. This blog shows how they can also help measure the effects of monetary policy on euro area inflation and unemployment.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 15 September 2026
- Around 80% of euro area households do not own stocks or any other market-based financial instruments, unlike their counterparts in the United States. This blog post examines the barriers that keep many Europeans from investing and explores ways to broaden capital market participation.Details
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G51 : Financial Economics
- 8 October 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 147Details
- Abstract
- The impact of private equity buyouts on target firms is well documented, yet empirical evidence on the impact of buyouts across the supply chain remains scarce. We address this gap by using unique production network data to examine how supply chains contribute to the ability of private equity investors to create and extract value. We show that, on average, suppliers of firms backed by private equity outperform their peers because of increased demand for inputs from customers backed by private equity – rather than alternative mechanisms such as knowledge spillovers. In contrast, during economic downturns, while firms backed by private equity outperform their peers even more strongly, their suppliers show no signs of outperformance. This can be attributed to private equity investors exerting greater pressure on suppliers and more actively reconfiguring supply chains to achieve cost-savings for their portfolio companies during periods of economic distress. Finally, beyond their impact on suppliers, we also show that private equity buyouts create crowding-out effects for competitors that rely on common suppliers.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
- 7 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3296Details
- Abstract
- This paper develops novel firm-level measures of shareholder geographical concentration and examines how elevated home bias in equity holdings affects investment resilience in the euro area. We combine security-level holdings data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics (SHS-S) with firm-level financial-statement data from Compustat, and document that equity ownership remains strongly concentrated domestically, with limited cross-border diversification within the monetary union. Using a difference-in-differences design around the COVID-19 shock, combined with a propensity score matching approach, we then analyse whether equity home bias shapes firms’ responses to macroeconomic disruptions. Against an average 16% decline in exports among the firms in the sectors most affected by the pandemic, those with more concentrated, home-biased shareholder bases reduced investment by 20% more than their more diversified peers after the shock. The effect operates mainly through weaker equity resilience, with equity declining by 13%, while sales and bank financing remain comparable. Our findings highlight the benefits of deeper cross-border equity integration for corporate resilience.
- JEL Code
- F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 7 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3295Details
- Abstract
- We introduce two indicators to track the build-up of vulnerabilities in the euro area banking sector on a quarterly basis by leveraging the information collected in EU-wide solvency stress tests. First, we introduce an indicator of conditional capital depletion, the Stress Vulnerability Index (SVI), which quantifies potential losses under adverse scenarios when tail credit risk is highest. Second, we introduce an indicator of earnings vulnerability, the Profitability Vulnerability Index (PVI), which assesses the capacity of the banking sector to generate capital organically. While the two indices spike synchronously during systemic crises, they can also decouple. We show that this occurs when tail risks to capital subside but earnings remain compressed, or conversely, when recessionary fears mount while current profitability strengthens. These divergences provide actionable signals for macroprudential policy by distinguishing between the accumulation of solvency risks and the impairment of loss absorption capacity. In doing so, the indices support decisions on the activation, build-up, stability or release of prudential buffers. We validate the usefulness of the indicators by showing that both indicators were strongly associated with the probability that euro area banks received state aid in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 7 October 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 6 October 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 400Details
- Abstract
- After the global financial crisis, all EU countries have developed within their jurisdictions a dedicated macroprudential pillar of financial oversight, in line with EU regulations and recommendations. However, governance structures differ, reflecting country-specific rationales and path-dependent choices. This paper provides an overview of the various institutional and operational frameworks for macroprudential policy in EU countries. This overview aims to deliver insights on the key aspects of these frameworks and their impact on the use of macroprudential policy. The analysis is based on i) a literature review, ii) a stocktaking exercise based on a survey among EU Member States and iii) country deep dives.
- JEL Code
- G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 5 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3294Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the information content of the term structure of inflation risks and its usefulness for understanding inflation dynamics. Using prices of traded zero-coupon inflation caps and floors, we develop a robust non-parametric methodology, combined with a Student’s t-copula, to estimate spot and forward risk-neutral densities at short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, i.e., long-horizon risks are identified from liquid instruments alone, at daily frequency, without forward-starting contracts. Focusing on the euro area over 2009-2026, we show that the term structure of inflation risks provides valuable information about the persistence of inflation shocks and the degree to which changes in the inflation outlook become embedded at longer horizons. We also show that there is marked heterogeneity in the macroeconomic and financial conditions associated to inflation risks across horizons: short- and medium-term risks are mainly associated with current inflation, confidence indicators, commodity prices, and near-term macroeconomic risks, whereas long-term risks are more strongly related to monetary and financial conditions. These findings highlight the importance of analysing the entire term structure of inflation risks rather than relying on a single maturity.
- JEL Code
- G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 5 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3293Details
- Abstract
- Leveraging the unique setting of unilateral euroisation, this paper examines the spillover effects of euro area monetary policy on Montenegro and Kosovo. Through the lens of a structural VAR model with block exogeneity, it shows that euro area monetary policy shocks can significantly influence output and inflation in these economies, albeit with a delayed response, while contributing only modestly to their overall business cycle fluctuations.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 1 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3292Details
- Abstract
- High-frequency interest rate surprises around Fed announcements do not identify monetary policy (MP) shocks if markets are imperfectly informed. Instead, they can also reflect central bank information (CBI) shocks, when the Fed assesses the economy differently, and Fed-response-to-news (FRN) shocks, when markets misperceive the policy rule. The literature treats these as competing explanations; we show they are distinct, and jointly identify all three from the co-movement of interest rate and equity surprises, their predictability from public news, and heteroskedasticity between FOMC and non-FOMC communication. CBI effects are robust at daily and monthly frequencies; FRN matters only daily. Purging both strengthens monetary policy estimates.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 1 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3291Details
- Abstract
- This study applies a Local Linear Forest (LLF) for wage forecasting in France. The LLF outperforms benchmarks such as Random Walk (RW), Ridge Regressions (RR) and Random Forests (RF). We also show that adding foreign predictors (i.e. measures of real activity, price and wage pressures from Germany and Italy) to French economic variables significantly improves wage predictions in France. The implications of our results are that wage dynamics in France exhibit non-linearity, to a certain extent, and that the better ability of LLFs relative to RFs to fit smooth signals is a valuable feature, especially at times in which wage growth reaches unprecedented levels from an historical perspective.
- JEL Code
- C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
- 29 September 2026
- LEGAL ACT
- 29 September 2026
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 September 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3290Details
- Abstract
- Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent mixture VAR with endogenous state probabilities and heteroskedastic shock identification, complemented by sparse sign and narrative restrictions. Applied to the euro area and U.S., the framework addresses a central policy question following the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war: do geopolitical shocks imply a return to the risk profile observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or is this time different? Results show that shocks differ not only in their effects on expected outcomes, but also in how they reshape scenario probabilities, tail risks, and transitions into high-volatility states.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C34 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETINEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- EU Member States have committed to substantially increasing defence spending in the coming years. According to Eurosystem staff baseline projections, defence spending – particularly on investment – is a notable factor supporting euro area growth over the short and medium term. Inflation effects are projected to be limited, though price pressures may increase over time. This is especially likely if supply cannot catch up with increased demand or personnel spending continues to dominate in line with past trends, as shown in an empirical analysis for the 27 EU Member States over 1999-2025. The composition of defence spending matters for both short and longer-term growth, with an increase in defence research and development (R&D) key to delivering long-run productivity gains. Illustrative simulations show that catching up to US levels of defence R&D could lift output and, additionally, encourage private sector defence R&D that could raise productivity growth.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations in the third and fourth reserve maintenance periods of 2026, from 6 May to 28 July.
- JEL Code
- E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box extends the Macro-Finance Financial Conditions Index (FCI) framework, originally developed for the euro area, to the United States. The analysis finds close linkages between US and euro area financial conditions, with risk assets playing a dominant role in the transmission of US shocks to euro area financial markets. In particular, changes in market expectations for the stance of US monetary policy affect euro area financial conditions through global risk-asset repricing, even when the ECB’s own policy stance remains unchanged. The findings highlight the importance of spillovers from the United States in shaping euro area financial conditions.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 24 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box presents the latest EUROPOP 2025 population projections for the euro area, documents the revisions compared with the EUROPOP 2023 projections and discusses the economic implications. The latest population outlook is more positive in the medium-run (until 2050) because of stronger net inward migration, which tempers the increase in age-related fiscal expenditure while boosting long-term economic growth. However, in the second half of the century the population is projected to decrease more strongly than previously projected as a result of lower fertility. This will have the opposite effect on public finances and long-term growth.
- JEL Code
- J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
- 24 September 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 146Details
- Abstract
- Cross-border payments are often slow and costly with many regions underserved by current arrangements. In line with the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-border Payments, several countries and regions, including the euro area, are working to interlink their domestic fast payment systems as a way to improve speed, cost and transparency. Econometric evidence suggests that countries with interlinked systems trade about 4% more with each other – around half of the effect of a trade agreement and a quarter of the effect of a common currency. The trade gains from interlinking fast payment systems are larger in regions with high cross-border payment costs and for systems that allow the settlement of wholesale transactions.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
- 23 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Europe’s competitiveness challenge is increasingly recognised as a scale-up challenge. Firms expanding across the Single Market continue to face regulatory burdens and legal fragmentation throughout their life cycle, increasing the cost and complexity of cross-border operations. This article examines how these barriers affect the ability of firms to scale up and assesses the extent to which the European Commission’s proposal for an optional European corporate form (EU Inc.) could help firms. By introducing a harmonised company law framework, its proposal has the potential to reduce transaction costs, improve legal certainty and facilitate cross-border investment, complementing the objectives of the Single Market and the savings and investments union. Still, EU Inc. is not a silver bullet. Its effectiveness will depend on its final design, take-up by firms, consistent implementation across Member States and complementary progress in capital market integration and reducing broader regulatory fragmentation.
- JEL Code
- K22 : Law and Economics→Regulation and Business Law→Business and Securities Law
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
L51 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Economics of Regulation
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
- 22 September 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box discusses the heterogeneous impact on EU countries of China’s rapid industrial transformation, which is reshaping global trade patterns. The similarity between the export structures of China and several EU countries has increased substantially since 2019, particularly in machinery and transport equipment, and is most pronounced in manufacturing-intensive economies, such as Germany. At the same time, China’s goods imports have become less aligned with EU export structures, illustrating China’s decreased reliance on European industrial goods. These developments have coincided with losses in EU export market shares in sectors and destinations where Chinese competition has intensified, although EU exports have remained more resilient in higher-value-added sectors, especially in the US market. These findings illustrate that there are differences across EU countries and sectors in terms of their exposure to China’s industrial rise, reflecting differences in specialisation and integration into global value chains, with implications for policy priorities at the EU and national levels.
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
Räntor
| Inlåningsfacilitet | 2,50 % |
| Huvudsakliga refinansieringstransaktioner (fast ränta) | 2,65 % |
| Utlåningsfacilitet | 2,90 % |
Inflationstakt
Mer om inflationVäxelkurser
| USD | US dollar | 1.1206 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 177.34 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84763 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9313 |
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