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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 3 February 2023 (provisional).

Survey results 2022 Q4


Inflation expectations revised up further for 2022-2024 horizons, but unchanged for the longer term

More on inflation

GDP growth expectations revised down

More on GDP

Unemployment rate expectations revised up

More on employment

For the media

Respondents considered current inflation to be largely driven by supply-side factors. They reported that upward revisions to inflation expectations primarily reflect higher (non-oil) energy and food prices, and their impact on other prices, as well as higher wage growth.

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report

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Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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