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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 31 January 2025 (provisional).

Survey results Q4 2024

Inflation

Inflation expectations at 2.4% for 2024 and 1.9% for 2025 and 2026; unchanged except for 0.1 percentage point downward revision for 2025; longer-term inflation expectations (for 2029) remain at 2.0%

More on inflation
GDP

GDP growth expectations broadly unchanged; small downward revision for 2025 largely reflects a carry-over from weaker than previously expected growth in the second half of 2024

More on GDP
Unemployment

Unemployment rate expectations unchanged; expected to average 6.5% in 2024 and 2025 but to decline to 6.4% in 2026 and in the longer term

More on unemployment

For the media

Results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2024

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report
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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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