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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 5 May 2023 (provisional).

Survey results Q1 2023

Inflation

Inflation expectations revised up for 2023 and 2024, but down for longer term

More on inflation
GDP

GDP growth expectations largely unchanged

More on GDP
Employment

Unemployment rate expectations revised down

More on employment

For the media

According to respondents, upward revisions to inflation expectations mainly reflect corresponding changes to expectations for HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco owing to a combination of recent data outturns, ongoing stronger and broader than expected indirect effects of energy price developments as well as higher forecast wage growth.

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report
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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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