Survey of Professional Forecasters
The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 12 April 2024 (provisional).
For the media
Headline inflation expectations revised down across all horizons compared to the previous survey round - reflecting the impact of lower than previously expected HICP data outturns and oil prices as well as weaker economic activity; longer-term inflation expectations (for 2028) stand at 2.0%Read the press release
Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.Read the report
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WORKING PAPER SERIES
Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.Working papers that mention this survey