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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 27 October 2023 (provisional).

Survey results Q3 2023


Limited off-setting revisions to inflation expectations for 2023-25; longer-term expectations unchanged

More on inflation

GDP growth expectations unchanged for 2023, but revised down slightly for subsequent years

More on GDP

Unemployment rate expectations revised down slightly for 2023 and 2024, but unchanged for longer term

More on unemployment

For the media

Headline inflation expectations broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey round, although this concealed downward revisions to HICP energy and food and upward revisions to expectations for HICP inflation excluding energy and food.

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report

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Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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