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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 23 July 2021 (provisionally).

Q2 2021

Survey results

Inflation

Inflation expectations revised up for 2021 but otherwise largely unchanged.

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GDP

GDP growth expectations revised down in 2021 and up in 2022, implying a further delay in recovery.

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Employment

Unemployment rate expectations revised down for 2021-23, with longer-term expectations unchanged.

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For the media

Reflecting the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, mitigation measures and continuing uncertainties, expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment were all revised further in this release.

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Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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