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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 23 April 2021 (provisionally).

Q1 2021

Survey results

Inflation

Shorter-term inflation expectations largely unchanged, while longer-term inflation expectations remained at 1.7%.

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GDP

Opposing revisions to GDP growth outlook, with near-term forecasts revised down but stronger rebound envisaged thereafter.

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Employment

Unemployment rate expectations revised down across all horizons.

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For the media

Reflecting the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, mitigation measures and continuing uncertainties, expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment were all revised further in this release.

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Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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