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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 12 April 2024 (provisional).

Survey results Q1 2024

Inflation

Inflation expectations revised down across all horizons; longer-term inflation expectations (for 2028) stand at 2.0%

More on inflation
GDP

GDP growth expectations down for 2024 and 2025, but unchanged thereafter

More on GDP
Unemployment

Unemployment rate expectations largely unchanged

More on unemployment

For the media

Headline inflation expectations revised down across all horizons compared to the previous survey round - reflecting the impact of lower than previously expected HICP data outturns and oil prices as well as weaker economic activity; longer-term inflation expectations (for 2028) stand at 2.0%

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report
SEE ALSO

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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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