Survey of Professional Forecasters
The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 26 January 2024 (provisional).
For the media
Headline inflation expectations broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey round, although this concealed upward revisions to HICP energy and downward revisions to expectations for HICP inflation excluding energy and food.Read the press release
Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.Read the report
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WORKING PAPER SERIES
Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.Working papers that mention this survey