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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) collects information on the expected rates of inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment in the euro area at several horizons, ranging from the current year to the longer term. Expectations are reported not only as point forecasts, but also as probability distributions, providing a quantitative assessment of risk and uncertainty.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters began in 1999. The aggregate results and microdata are published four times a year. The next release will be published on 22 July 2022 (provisional).

Q2 2022

Survey results

Inflation

Inflation expectations revised up for 2022 and 2023 but unchanged for 2024 at 1.9%

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GDP

GDP growth expectations on balance revised down

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Employment

Unemployment rate expectations revised down again for all horizons

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For the media

Overall, respondents indicated that the war in Ukraine and its effects were the primary factors behind the revisions to their inflation and growth forecasts in 2022 and 2023.

Read the press release

Full report

Explore in detail the latest survey respondents' expectations on future inflation, economic growth, unemployment and other economic variables.

Read the report
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WORKING PAPER SERIES

Our working paper series covers economic research that is relevant to our tasks. They are addressed to experts, so readers should be knowledgeable in economics.

Working papers that mention this survey

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